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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards


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23 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

it went by 9.30. According to the beep, 9c is very cold:fool:

Don't worry, London should see the Lofty heights of 10c tomorrow! You should be able to take off your double layers, scarf and puffer jacket tomorrow :clapping:

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If everyone on here could be friendly and (ideally) find a sense of humour, that would just be hunky dorey.

So just to clarify CK1981 because I have not seen you say this 2,350 times in the last 136 pages of this thread you think there will be something interesting around Mid Month ??? Dont want to go to be

Have nade my first mini snow man. First in 5 years.

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31 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

it went by 9.30. According to the beep, 9c is very cold:fool:

You have to laugh when they come out with crap like that. 9c is actually about 2c above average for the time of year ?

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40 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

My friends who live in Houston have seen temperatures down to -9 and snow on several occasions so far this winter. Yet, at our latitude, we get nothing of interest. 

We’re just cursed here in the south east ?

I do appreciate that a lack of snow is disappointing for many but it isn’t anything abnormal for here. Snow has always been pretty rare in this part of the UK, it has certainly never snowed heavily every winter and I’ve seen plenty of winters in my lifetime so far with barely a flake. I’m not sure where this massive expectation and perception has come from? Houston is much further south than here but it’s on a huge, freezing continent where we are at the end of a huge, warm ocean. We need a proper easterly here for any chance of decent snow. Still time for that.

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6 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

You have to laugh when they come out with crap like that. 9c is actually about 2c above average for the time of year ?

Another forecaster said it's been wonderfully mild lately... I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

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1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

I do appreciate that a lack of snow is disappointing for many but it isn’t anything abnormal for here. Snow has always been pretty rare in this part of the UK, it has certainly never snowed heavily every winter and I’ve seen plenty of winters in my lifetime so far with barely a flake. I’m not sure where this massive expectation and perception has come from? Houston is much further south than here but it’s on a huge, freezing continent where we are at the end of a huge, warm ocean. We need a proper easterly here for any chance of decent snow. Still time for that.

Houston is on the Gulf of Mexico! The fact they can achieve -9c and we barely scrape a frost is pretty desperate. I understand why we have a temperate climate, but snow events are much rarer these days than the 80’s and 90’s when I was growing up. I don’t have huge expectations, I also don’t have expectations this low!

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2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Another forecaster said it's been wonderfully mild lately... I'm not happy, in fact I'm quite sad

No snow coming so is mild :D

am off to seek sun now ! Had enough of the cold watching ... have a fab spring , summer  :friends:

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Just now, CK1981 said:

Houston is on the Gulf of Mexico! The fact they can achieve -9c and we barely scrape a frost is pretty desperate. I understand why we have a temperate climate, but snow events are much rarer these days than the 80’s and 90’s when I was growing up. I don’t have huge expectations, I also don’t have expectations this low!

My brother lives in Houston, he said there have been a few frosts and snow showers but that’s not unusual. If you get a northerly flow there in winter, it crosses a freezing continent all the way from Canada, there’s no warmer water to moderate the temperatures. But a couple of cold days there is then followed by days of temperatures in the 20’s C, in January. Doubt that’d go down well here.

I agree that snowy episodes and cold spells occur less than in the 80’s and early 90’s. But I do think our current cycle of warmer winters is normal, there were plenty of such cycles in the 20th century. It’ll change again at some point, with colder winters. Unless, of course, humans have completely messed up the climate?

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2 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

My brother lives in Houston, he said there have been a few frosts and snow showers but that’s not unusual. If you get a northerly flow there in winter, it crosses a freezing continent all the way from Canada, there’s no warmer water to moderate the temperatures. But a couple of cold days there is then followed by days of temperatures in the 20’s C, in January. Doubt that’d go down well here.

I agree that snowy episodes and cold spells occur less than in the 80’s and early 90’s. But I do think our current cycle of warmer winters is normal, there were plenty of such cycles in the 20th century. It’ll change again at some point, with colder winters. Unless, of course, humans have completely messed up the climate?

I think climate change has a lot to do with this. You only have to look at the mean temperatures over the years to see the gradual increase, which appears to be more apparent in winter.

Yes, we will see snow events and colder winters, but I feel they will become less frequent.

On the flip side, we may see better summers with an increase in heatwaves.

I suppose it’s greedy to want it all, but just one proper snowy spell per winter would suit me, even if only for a few days.

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5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I think climate change has a lot to do with this. You only have to look at the mean temperatures over the years to see the gradual increase, which appears to be more apparent in winter.

Yes, we will see snow events and colder winters, but I feel they will become less frequent.

On the flip side, we may see better summers with an increase in heatwaves.

I suppose it’s greedy to want it all, but just one proper snowy spell per winter would suit me, even if only for a few days.

Yes, if the world is getting warmer then places marginal for snow (UK/NW Europe) will see less of it. Sad, if so, but the jury is still out for me. Better summers would be amazing, anything warmer and sunnier is a bonus in this country lol. I’d too be happy with one snowy spell each winter. A week is enough for me, snow then starts getting annoying. Lovely to see and play in for a few days, though :) Still time, we have a good few weeks....

Edited by stainesbloke
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Just now, stainesbloke said:

Yes, if the world is getting warmer then places marginal for snow (UK/NW Europe) will see less of it. Sad, if so, but the jury is still out for me. Better summers would be amazing, anything warmer and sunnier is a bonus in this country lol. I’d be happy with one snowy spell each winter. A week is enough for me, snow then starts getting annoying. Lovely to see and play in for a few days, though :)

Totally agree, it does become a nuisance after a week, so a few days would be just right.

When it comes to summer, I’d be happy with temperatures in the high 20’s / low 30’s throughout ?

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Just now, CK1981 said:

Totally agree, it does become a nuisance after a week, so a few days would be just right.

When it comes to summer, I’d be happy with temperatures in the high 20’s / low 30’s throughout ?

Absolutely!! That’d be lovely. With a few decent thundery outbreaks thrown in. As much chance of that, though, as a decent easterly!

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4 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Absolutely!! That’d be lovely. With a few decent thundery outbreaks thrown in. As much chance of that, though, as a decent easterly!

Yes, last summer was lovely and warm, but certainly lacked some proper storms.

As you say, these have become as elusive as our winter easterlies!

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5 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Yes, last summer was lovely and warm, but certainly lacked some proper storms.

As you say, these have become as elusive as our winter easterlies!

They have, thunderstorms were far more common and severe in the 80’s (despite some crap summers), maybe that’s part of a cycle, too?

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12 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

They have, thunderstorms were far more common and severe in the 80’s (despite some crap summers), maybe that’s part of a cycle, too?

Let’s hope so as I do love a good storm.

Latest BBC forecast looks very mediocre for our patch. Plenty of snow in the north (for a change), but nothing exciting down here, aside from the odd hail shower.

They also showed a warm front crossing the country on Saturday, with snow to the north and rain down here.

Even if we get this mediocre easterly flow, I can’t see very low temperatures with the predicted uppers, so a little below average would be my punt (as things stand).

Chilly, yes, exceptional.....I doubt it very much.

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1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Yes, if the world is getting warmer then places marginal for snow (UK/NW Europe) will see less of it. Sad, if so, but the jury is still out for me. Better summers would be amazing, anything warmer and sunnier is a bonus in this country lol. I’d too be happy with one snowy spell each winter. A week is enough for me, snow then starts getting annoying. Lovely to see and play in for a few days, though :) Still time, we have a good few weeks....

Not necessarily as data shows the North Atlantic region has actually cooled since 1900. This links back to a slow down in Gulf Stream I reckon which would be impactful here if it went that extra mile. There can be exceptions in this warming world where we are positioned we are definitely potentially subject to a cooling, however it would be fairly offset by AGW.

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After yesterday’s frost and sun, a windy night and warmer - currently 7c - and about to rain looking at the radar.

Overnight runs look interesting, continuing the colder theme but will not hold my breath for that theme to still be there when I’m back from work this evening (please please please be there!)

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4 minutes ago, Jimmyh said:

Interesting it seems that all pots of paint mirror the ukmo. Now ukmo had been showing an easterly..... when was last the big players all joined in

Apparently things are looking up if you like cold and snow, which isn't many people on this site:rofl:

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4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Apparently things are looking up if you like cold and snow, which isn't many people on this site:rofl:

no i don't want snow, lass. bored of winter stuffs, need excuses to buy summer stuffs. Feels like forever jan u boring.

 

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5 minutes ago, Dami said:

no i don't want snow, lass. bored of winter stuffs, need excuses to buy summer stuffs. Feels like forever jan u boring.

 

Agree, January sucks, but it would be good to have a few snow days before winter is out, oh and the BBC weather presenters won't be able to say, at least it will be mild, either:friends:

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17 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Agree, January sucks, but it would be good to have a few snow days before winter is out, oh and the BBC weather presenters won't be able to say, at least it will be mild, either:friends:

ban it then. ban everything. 

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ECM day 5/6/7

B3F39F47-D5EE-426E-AF1C-3F39C26B74FA.thumb.png.0a582f241cd35dc30b419f473c590836.png4407C45F-99AA-4F59-907B-10A2EC305C94.thumb.png.1b09d3b1ac63542b1b2561d33e15e4e2.pngB3E2FAEF-1122-4B15-87CA-09B538665094.thumb.png.9575e2766b3e8eadf82e3b346ccd4baf.png

 

should this land & looking at ECM you are looking for LONDON maxes 

sun 4c

mon 2c

Tues 1c

weds 0c

Knock 1/2c off elsewhere-

however we do need this modelling to maintain for another 48 hours —

 

 

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Well guys i did post only yesterday about the Meto contingency planners going for a below average Feb and lo and behold the upgrades overnight have the SE in some very very cold air as we move through the weekend and into next week.

Enjoy that bitter Russian sourced air (uppers -10/-11)..

Youve all waited long enough!

:)

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Easterlies here are less than pleasant, flat as a pancake and nothing to stop them as they come straight from Russia, ice cream headache time.

Lets get winter over then can look forward to shorts and tee shirt time with longer days and more heat in the sun.

 

 

 

 

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