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SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards


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UKMO and the ECM (to a lesser extent) keeping the faith this morning. I really hope a block to the east sets up and is robust enough to fend off the Atlantic, but that vortex looks so angry with all the cold over Canada. Surely it’s only a matter of time before the jet really cranks up and blasts any blocks away, or sends energy over the top making the whole pattern sink again. 

We’re going to need some real luck with this last throw of the dice.

Edited by CK1981
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If everyone on here could be friendly and (ideally) find a sense of humour, that would just be hunky dorey.

So just to clarify CK1981 because I have not seen you say this 2,350 times in the last 136 pages of this thread you think there will be something interesting around Mid Month ??? Dont want to go to be

Have nade my first mini snow man. First in 5 years.

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2 hours ago, CK1981 said:

UKMO and the ECM (to a lesser extent) keeping the faith this morning. I really hope a block to the east sets up and is robust enough to fend off the Atlantic, but that vortex looks so angry with all the cold over Canada. Surely it’s only a matter of time before the jet really cranks up and blasts any blocks away, or sends energy over the top making the whole pattern sink again. 

We’re going to need some real luck with this last throw of the dice.

Agreed, Canada is just too cold right now to allow a decent set up for us/the UK, this really is affecting the way our weather is shaping up. Then again, it might sound strange but it could be a blessing in disguise - do we really want to be swallowed up in a big Scandi high making us freeze under grey skies with little or no precipitation? In my opinion we have better chances of a severe 'transitional' snowfall under more mobile conditions.... which is now looking more likely. 

Edited by Matt Ralph
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1 hour ago, Matt Ralph said:

Agreed, Canada is just too cold right now to allow a decent set up for us/the UK, this really is affecting the way our weather is shaping up. Then again, it might sound strange but it could be a blessing in disguise - do we really want to be swallowed up in a big Scandi high making us freeze under grey skies with little or no precipitation? In my opinion we have better chances of a severe 'transitional' snowfall under more mobile conditions.... which is now looking more likely. 

Sounds the more likely way forward.

The 6z gfs is still miles away from the Euros, so while there are such stark differences in the outputs, I guess anything is possible.

I just hope my daily snow dance is helping ?

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Met Office outlook is starting to back track. There’s a chance of some transient sleet or snow on Sunday, but then goes on to mention wet and windy weather during next week. This certainly doesn’t suggest an easterly to me, so maybe the signal is fading now in the short term.

The longer term outlook does suggest things settling down with frost, fog and the chance of snow showers in the east, but that’s a long way off.

Edited by CK1981
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If you have a robust high and heights going in the right place then the jet can be displaced. I know its hard to shut it off but it can happen even when you have such a massive fuel tank out west to pump it up. 

GFS favours over doing the jet more than it does under playing it 

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Does summer start next month? It's been January for at least ten weeks.  

Perfect day for lovers of frosty sunny and calm.

Also a perfect day to realize there is a water mark on my coat. 

 

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1 hour ago, Jimmyh said:

CK that is very sensational last throw of the dice!!!! We haven't even entered Feb yet.

After mid February, with the ever strengthening sun, snow will never stick around for long, not without exceptional cold anyway. I know March can deliver in the north, but at our latitude, it will just be a slush fest.

We need to get the cold in ASAP in early February for something memorable, much like the 1991 event. Maybe the output will flip back in favour of cold on the 12z.....here’s hoping anyway!

 

Edited by CK1981
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1 hour ago, Surrey said:

If you have a robust high and heights going in the right place then the jet can be displaced. I know its hard to shut it off but it can happen even when you have such a massive fuel tank out west to pump it up. 

GFS favours over doing the jet more than it does under playing it 

The issue at the moment seems to be the trend away from robust heights to our north east. If we end up with a mediocre high, it’ll soon get pushed east by the jet. 

The Met Office outlook has changed a lot from yesterday, suggesting wet and windy weather mid next week, so I can’t see a robust high forming just yet.

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14 minutes ago, Dami said:

Does summer start next month? It's been January for at least ten weeks.  

Perfect day for lovers of frosty sunny and calm.

Also a perfect day to realize there is a water mark on my coat. 

 

I went out for a long walk this morning. It was lovely being out in the cold and crisp air ?

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3 minutes ago, abruzzi spur said:

You should have eaten it in advance of the 'use by' date.

lol might as well have eaten it, there was no storm this morning yet it woke the whole household up with its alarm.

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5 hours ago, CK1981 said:

The issue at the moment seems to be the trend away from robust heights to our north east. If we end up with a mediocre high, it’ll soon get pushed east by the jet. 

The Met Office outlook has changed a lot from yesterday, suggesting wet and windy weather mid next week, so I can’t see a robust high forming just yet.

We don’t really want robust huge block think only to last winter soggy bottom with Scandi high! I actually prefer small areas of blocking they tend to be better for CAA. Bigger isn’t always better. :p 

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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

To me things look good to see some proper cold not from the northwest...

Cold from the northwest always fills me with dread. Usually great for the north, but crap down here. As long as we get a nice cold easterly in, I’ll be happy!

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If this Easterly fails to come off,then I’m done with this rubbish winter here.

Its just unbelievable how hard it is to to get any sort of Easterly in the winter months.

Of course when spring arrives I’m sure we will see plenty of northern blocking ,so looking forward to spring and some snow,even if it melts quite quickly.:D

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18 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

If this Easterly fails to come off,then I’m done with this rubbish winter here.

Its just unbelievable how hard it is to to get any sort of Easterly in the winter months.

Of course when spring arrives I’m sure we will see plenty of northern blocking ,so looking forward to spring and some snow,even if it melts quite quickly.:D

My friends who live in Houston have seen temperatures down to -9 and snow on several occasions so far this winter. Yet, at our latitude, we get nothing of interest. 

We’re just cursed here in the south east ?

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