Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]
  • Location: Canmore, AB [4296ft above sea level] & North Kent [350ft above sea level]

    I think the showers will be there as well as chance for streamer activity. The reason I think the met are being caution to stating a lot of accumulating snow is possibly down to dew points not being favourable. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.5k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    If everyone on here could be friendly and (ideally) find a sense of humour, that would just be hunky dorey.

    So just to clarify CK1981 because I have not seen you say this 2,350 times in the last 136 pages of this thread you think there will be something interesting around Mid Month ??? Dont want to go to be

    Have nade my first mini snow man. First in 5 years.

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy, wintry weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
    2 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

    When and if we get a Thames streamer, can someone explain what sort of area it tends to cover.

     

    Yes Sharpedge, generally it develops along the Thames corridor, from the S.Essex coast/N.Kent coast and on into E/SE and S.London and dissipates, as it approaches the west of this area.

    In Feb 2009, the TS was unusual, in that, some areas in the west, had heavier falls, than further east.

    There was a superb analysis by Paul Sherman and why he had a slight cover of "polystyrene balls", whereas as further west snowfall totals were approaching, 12 inches!!

    I have lived, in the Bromley area , all my live and worked in Croydon, for over 25 years. Bromley always, "outsnowed" Croydon, in TS events. But not in Feb 2009,. Bromley had, around 6 to 8 inches. It was my day off, on that Monday, after the Sunday night snowfall. Going into work on the Tuesday morning, I was gobsmacked, to see the amount of snow, that had fallen, in central Croydon, nigh on 9 inches!!

    Regards,

    Tom.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
    39 minutes ago, KentishDan said:

    It looks like dew points will be our main problem tomorrow

    DP.thumb.png.c0062e542af0a71ae08edfe97d2c8086.png

    Has this updated to the 12z yet? Or could I please have the location of the dew point forecast charts please?

    Tried looking but couldn’t find them.

    Edited by lottiekent
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    43 minutes ago, KentishDan said:

    It looks like dew points will be our main problem tomorrow

    DP.thumb.png.c0062e542af0a71ae08edfe97d2c8086.png

    Dew points seem to have improved on the 12z GFS for tomorrow evening 21z (same time as chart you posted) 

    dewp_sun12z.thumb.png.35aa9c18076f483b262b17f8b9a5f1f4.png

    Perhaps new obs / data fed in suggesting a drier surface feed (lower DPs) as the Met O forecast for tomorrow issued earlier this afternoon (perhaps UKMet 06z) indicating showers wintry at first then rain or hail later, but this may change if the 12z data is right.

    Quote

    A cold, mostly dry day, with sunny spells, and brisk northeasterly winds. However scattered showers continue across Kent and Sussex. These wintry at first, but mostly rain or hail later. Maximum temperature 6 °C.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-02-03

    Interesting they mention hail though, as that suggests some decent convection.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    12 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Dew points seem to have improved on the 12z GFS for tomorrow evening 21z (same time as chart you posted) 

    dewp_sun12z.thumb.png.35aa9c18076f483b262b17f8b9a5f1f4.png

    Perhaps new obs / data fed in suggesting a drier surface feed (lower DPs) as the Met O forecast for tomorrow issued earlier this afternoon (perhaps UKMet 06z) indicating showers wintry at first then rain or hail later, but this may change if the 12z data is right.

    https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcpvj0v07#?date=2018-02-03

    Interesting they mention hail though, as that suggests some decent convection.

    That is significantly better for much of Kent snow instead of rain? Could build up if things go well...

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms,snow+gales
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex

    Sunday daytime is not favourable and never has been,evening/overnight and onwards into Monday morning however is different.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    This model always makes me think of Harry Potter red head :D. It shows quite perky snow showers Monday morning affecting Suffolk, E Essex, Kent and East Sussex most favoured....

    5E4E0591-CA84-47F7-BC61-DB0AA8392DE0.thumb.jpeg.22ed42b010660068cc64abf346076958.jpeg

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    32 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

    Has this updated to the 12z yet? Or could I please have the location of the dew point forecast charts please?

    Tried looking but couldn’t find them.

    It's part of the Net-Weather extra subscription, it's the NetWx-SR model.

    Hopefully the 12z runs have it right and we see snow tomorrow instead of rain..

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    40 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

    In Feb 2009, the TS was unusual, in that, some areas in the west, had heavier falls, than further east.

    There was a superb analysis by Paul Sherman and why he had a slight cover of "polystyrene balls", whereas as further west snowfall totals were approaching, 12 inches!!

    Differences in dew point and temperature towards the coast compared to inland (usually higher on the coast) plus subtle difference to the angle of the flow off the North Sea can make a difference to regards to where the heaviest snowfall is generated in a Thames Streamer set-up. 

    The streamer tends to develop because of the discontinuity and the narrowing westward of the land fringing the Thames Estuary, compared to the flat North Sea, causing uplift of flow, which is very dry when it leaves Benelux but which picks up moisture over the North Sea in lower layers, then lifting along the coast. The ideal flow for a strong streamer is ENE, which tend to favour heavier falls along and just inland of SE Essex, NW Kent, SE London. The land rises behind Bromley and Croydon towards the North Downs above the M25, so the enhanced uplift of the upslope can bring heavier falls inland towards S London / Kent or Surrey border than towards the Thames of SE London.

    Sometimes right on the Thames Estuary the temp and dew point maybe a little too high for snow, but convection over the North Sea can still bring graupel and soft polystrene hail in the showers, as it takes more energy to melt this than snow, and still give a white covering.

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 6
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    40 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    That is indeed a ENE flow I like the look of it.....

    These look like perfect streamers for SE London from GEM, hugging the Essex coast, and in they come.

    gem-2-48.png

    gem-2-66.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
    7 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    That is significantly better for much of Kent snow instead of rain? Could build up if things go well...

    Yes, could make all the difference as, to my novice eyes, most of the other parameters look favourable.

    It looks as though there’s a fair chance something will be coming out the sky tomorrow night/Monday morning here in East Sussex so hoping to at least see a dusting.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, snowray said:

    These look like perfect streamers for SE London from GEM, hugging the Essex coast, and in they come.

    gem-2-48.png

    gem-2-66.png

    Me and you both have been waiting a long time for something decent here’s hoping. :friends:

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: kings lynn
  • Location: kings lynn
    4 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Differences in dew point and temperature towards the coast compared to inland (usually higher on the coast) plus subtle difference to the angle of the flow off the North Sea can make a difference to regards to where the heaviest snowfall is generated in a Thames Streamer set-up. 

    The streamer tends to develop because of the discontinuity and the narrowing westward of the land fringing the Thames Estuary, compared to the flat North Sea, causing uplift of flow, which is very dry when it leaves Benelux but which picks up moisture over the North Sea in lower layers, then lifting along the coast. The ideal flow for a strong streamer is ENE, which tend to favour heavier falls along and just inland of SE Essex, NW Kent, SE London. The land rises behind Bromley and Croydon towards the North Downs above the M25, so the enhanced uplift of the upslope can bring heavier falls inland towards S London / Kent or Surrey border then towards the Thames of SE London.

    Sometimes right on the Thames Estuary the temp and dew point maybe a little too high for snow, but convection over the North Sea can still bring graupel and soft polystrene hail in the showers, as it takes more energy to melt this than snow, and still give a white covering.

    Hi Nick in 2010 we had a wash streamer here in north norfolk, lasted nearly all day, but  totally flat land here,how does that work?

    Thanks Jason

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea, South East Essex.
    2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

    Differences in dew point and temperature towards the coast compared to inland (usually higher on the coast) plus subtle difference to the angle of the flow off the North Sea can make a difference to regards to where the heaviest snowfall is generated in a Thames Streamer set-up. 

    The streamer tends to develop because of the discontinuity and the narrowing westward of the land fringing the Thames Estuary, compared to the flat North Sea, causing uplift of flow, which is very dry when it leaves Benelux but which picks up moisture over the North Sea in lower layers, then lifting along the coast. The ideal flow for a strong streamer is ENE, which tend to favour heavier falls along and just inland of SE Essex, NW Kent, SE London. The land rises behind Bromley and Croydon towards the North Downs above the M25, so the enhanced uplift of the upslope can bring heavier falls inland towards S London / Kent or Surrey border then towards the Thames of SE London.

    Sometimes right on the Thames Estuary the temp and dew point maybe a little too high for snow, but convection over the North Sea can still bring graupel and soft polystrene hail in the showers, as it takes more energy to melt this than snow, and still give a white covering.

    Great explanation Nick and spot on. As a lifelong resident at the mouth of Mother Thames I have seen it all when it comes to the Thames Streamer. Pure joy and also pure anguish. It’s a real fine line to get the perfect set up and a very rare one. But when she fires.....wow. I will be looking for the tell tale signs when I am out and about late in the evening for the early part of next week...the Thames talks, I cant explain it, the deathly hush, the deep orange glow on the cloud base, that smell of snow in the air....magical and only us coldies get it.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

    A good call to have the current yellow snow and ice warning where it is IMO. I think there potentially could be some disruption to travel Monday morning across these areas, local variance too..

    Edited by Daniel*
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, more snow and even more snow..Oh and I love a good old Thunderstorm
  • Location: Thorpe Surrey (About 1 mile from Thorpe park)

    Somewhere could get lucky lol 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms,snow+gales
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex
    1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

    A good call to have the current yellow snow and ice warning where it is IMO. I think there potentially could be some disruption to travel Monday morning. 

    With you on this Dan,in my opinion snowfall amounts will be greater than predicted.

     

     

     

     

     

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
    8 minutes ago, norfolksnow said:

    Hi Nick in 2010 we had a wash streamer here in north norfolk, lasted nearly all day, but  totally flat land here,how does that work?

    Thanks Jason

    Like I mentioned in my post, the discontinuity of the land compared to the flat sea, even if the coast is just a few metres asl, can be enough to create uplift of a moist flow off the sea and, as a result, enough cloud depth to enhance snowfall, enhanced further if the coast narrows in an Estuary in direction that the flows moving towards, such as Thames or the Wash. 

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire

    This will come down to a nowcast event and radar watch.

    I’m not discounting snow in my area, especially if the occlusion enhances the precipitation.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
    2 minutes ago, Paul1968 said:

    With you on this Dan,in my opinion snowfall amounts will be greater than predicted.

    There is a chance it could greatly exceed however probably in a narrow line what stumped me a bit was mention of snow only accumulating really above 100 meters, away from the coast at least it doesn’t look marginal? I know back in the day the paramters at play it would all be snow, and probably be quite decent too..

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    1 minute ago, E17boy said:

    I am in N/E London Walthamstow I think the chances of snow are less will probably miss out on the streamer event if it happens ??

    Not to worry, this part of Suffolk isn't really famed for its streamers, either. I did have the good fortune to be in Bromley on Nov. 30th 2010, however; I thought the snow was never going to stop!:cold:

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL
  • Location: Folkestone, Kent 101ft/30m ASL

    Let’s hope we get a Thames streamer and some sort of East Anglia streamer and also a Channel streamer. Then everyone will be happy :drinks:

    • Like 5
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms,snow+gales
  • Location: Hullbridge Near Hockley,Essex

    I wouldn't discount anything at this stage,we have a favourable wind direction from late tomorrow so please dont be too disheartened yet at least 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level

    2009/10 and 2010/11 were an incredible couple of years for Streamers in this region. The 2009 was for here was horrible, I had the streamer going directly over me but living on the Isles of Grain at the time, I got a couple of inches of polystyrene balls much like Paul, I think I remember us both being on here quite late absolutely dumbfounded about what was happening. 

    Then November 2010 came along, another streamer and this time it produced. 30 odd hours of continuous snowfall left just over a foot of level snow, an incredible couple of weeks followed. Unfortunately, now every "cold spell" has to try and live up to something that's incredibly rare, Streamers are pretty much the holy grail for me. Frontal snow just doesn't seem to do it for this area, not anymore anyway. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...