SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[Daniel*]

54 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

Yeah you're right.. The rain wouldn't have got this far east if the ridge was stronger..

The pattern is less amplified than what the models were showing.

Nope it’s not even really developed yet. No need to feel concerned as to what may happen ahead. 

 > 

Edited February 3, 2018 by Daniel*

[Daniel*]

Some roads and railways are likely to be affected I like the sound of that. 

p

[PLANET THANET]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Some roads and railways are likely to be affected I like the sound of that. 

p

this is the warning that I was referring to earlier not showing herne bay / margate coastline within the yellow area

[E17boy]

14 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Another one of those grotty, nondescript days that one loves to forget: brightish, little wind and 4C!

Hi everyone on this forum this is my first time ever posting here and there are some great posters. Here in Walthamstow n/e London it's been raining since this morning grim to be honest. I do hope from tomorrow afternoon we do see some snow appearing hot my fingers crossed. Job st stepped outside and that cold wind has picked up a bit it is beginning to feel colder, could this rain at the smallest chance possibly change later to some white stuff. Anyway keep up the good posts and fingers cross from tomorrow have a lovely afternoon all. ??

[Coopsy]

My hometown has a snowfall warning for up to 40cm! ......back in Canada lol. Oh well 1-3cm here is fine lol 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, c00ps said:

My hometown has a snowfall warning for up to 40cm! ......back in Canada lol. Oh well 1-3cm here is fine lol 

There could be locally much more than that, you will only really be able to gauge by radar watching. 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Eyes down on the radar from tomorrow 

[Daniel*]

55 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I’m not downbeat, just being realistic.

Will be nice for most of us to see some snow, but expectations need to be managed.....this is no beast from the east and would be quite a normal setup in winters gone by. I guess it looks more exceptional due to the crap we’ve had to endure.

Looks like the real fun and games come later in the month!

No it’s not a normal set up that you see every winter, never has been. I think you are being pessimistic. Let’s make a judgement when it’s over with?  

[10 Days Away]

Although I love snow I'm looking forward to popping down to Camber in the summer to see some storms coming up from France. A lot more frequent than snow but just as interesting/exciting to see

[E17boy]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

There could be locally much more than that, you will only really be able to gauge by radar watching. 

Let's hope fingers crossed I would prefer the heavier showers in the evening when there is more chance for the snow to settle. Where is Steve Mur would love to hear what is take is for tomorrow. I do hope we get at least a covering we are due one. Still raining here in Walthamstow although seems to be lighter. ??

[CK1981]

9 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

No it’s not a normal set up that you see every winter, never has been. I think you are being pessimistic. Let’s make a judgement when it’s over with?  

Did I say every winter....no!

I said it would have been a usual setup for winters gone by....3c by day is hardly a deep freeze, is it?

I’m not being pessimistic at all, but neither will I over ramp something that doesn’t warrant it, a bit like you are.

The over ramping is exactly why people have such high expectations about next week. There needs to be some realism with regard to what is currently being modelled.

Edited February 3, 2018 by CK1981

[Daniel*]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Did I say every winter....no!

I said it would have been a usual setup for winters gone by....3c by day is hardly a deep freeze, is it?

I’m not being pessimistic at all, but neither will I over ramp something that doesn’t warrant it, a bit like you are.

I’m not ramping whatsoever I don’t need too I’m very much middle ground we could be barely be above freezing by Tuesday. 

[Matty88]

2 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

Did I say every winter....no!

I said it would have been a usual setup for winters gone by....3c by day is hardly a deep freeze, is it?

I’m not being pessimistic at all, but neither will I over ramp something that doesn’t warrant it, a bit like you are.

The over ramping is exactly why people have such high expectations about next week. There needs to be some realism with regard to what is currently being modelled.

Agreed - all in all nothing spectacular next week at all. Massive over hype by many on here. And I wouldn’t get too excited about the snow showers in the far SE either - 1-2cm locally at night and melting by day. A bit of a cold damp squib to be honest 

bring on a proper easterly/northerly propelled by a low for proper snow potential! Later in Feb hopefully...

[CK1981]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m not ramping whatsoever I don’t need too I’m very much middle ground we could be barely be above freezing by Tuesday. 

And neither am I being pessimistic, never have been!

All I have done is highlight what is being shown for next week.

I also said it’s looking good towards the end of the month, so that would be optimistic.

I never understand why you always have to put a negative spin on everything I say. Maybe that makes you the pessimist ?

 

Edited February 3, 2018 by CK1981

[CK1981]

8 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Agreed - all in all nothing spectacular next week at all. Massive over hype by many on here. And I wouldn’t get too excited about the snow showers in the far SE either - 1-2cm locally at night and melting by day. A bit of a cold damp squib to be honest 

bring on a proper easterly/northerly propelled by a low for proper snow potential! Later in Feb hopefully...

Maybe people are seeing different outputs to me to ramp this up so much, but when I was growing up I remember much colder spells most winters!

Edited February 3, 2018 by CK1981

[Dami]

14 minutes ago, TN26 said:

Although I love snow I'm looking forward to popping down to Camber in the summer to see some storms coming up from France. A lot more frequent than snow but just as interesting/exciting to see

I miss the luxury of being able to pop down the front and watch the storms, don't really get that here, not with all the housing they are building. Supermarket was certainly busy. people out doing there bread and milk panic no doubt.  Nothing of interest for me just a lil bit of ice and rain all week.

[lawrenk]

Can I just say, if anyone doesn't want their 1 to 3cms of snow tomorrow night can they chuck it my way. I'll have a decent covering by Monday morning.

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Agreed - all in all nothing spectacular next week at all. Massive over hype by many on here. And I wouldn’t get too excited about the snow showers in the far SE either - 1-2cm locally at night and melting by day. A bit of a cold damp squib to be honest 

bring on a proper easterly/northerly propelled by a low for proper snow potential! Later in Feb hopefully...

Exactly, and that is IMO nearly always the case? But I guess we all like being told what we want to hear?

[Matty88]

Just now, CK1981 said:

Maybe people are seeing different outputs to me to ramp this up so much, but when I was growing up, I remember much colder spells most winters!

Trouble is we’ve had a couple of mild winters so people forget what a decent set up looks like! A weak easterly with HP nearby (like next week) is never decent. Cold, grey with bits and bobs of sleet or snow grains. 

As I’ve said in previous posts you’re better off between the raw cold and mobile Atlantic lows which can produce decent snow dumps, or a big fat low in the North Sea propelling cold from the north or east. 

So currently we may all be in for a dusting next week but nothing much more as it stands... I can’t deny there is potential for something better later next week but that’s along way off in weather terms! 

 

[snowrye]

19 minutes ago, TN26 said:

Although I love snow I'm looking forward to popping down to Camber in the summer to see some storms coming up from France. A lot more frequent than snow but just as interesting/exciting to see

Will meet you there then,love standing on the sea wall at jury's gap,and watching it roll in,let's have some decent snow 1st

[CK1981]

11 minutes ago, Matty88 said:

Trouble is we’ve had a couple of mild winters so people forget what a decent set up looks like! A weak easterly with HP nearby (like next week) is never decent. Cold, grey with bits and bobs of sleet or snow grains. 

As I’ve said in previous posts you’re better off between the raw cold and mobile Atlantic lows which can produce decent snow dumps, or a big fat low in the North Sea propelling cold from the north or east. 

So currently we may all be in for a dusting next week but nothing much more as it stands... I can’t deny there is potential for something better later next week but that’s along way off in weather terms! 

 

I couldn’t agree with you more!

I’m hopeful we will see some great wintry spells this month, especially with the strat and MJO signals.

I’m certainly not being pessimistic and want a proper cold spell more than anyone, but also need to keep a sense of perspective to avoid disappointment!

Edited February 3, 2018 by CK1981

[Radiating Dendrite]

22 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m not ramping whatsoever I don’t need too I’m very much middle ground we could be barely be above freezing by Tuesday. 

You did say you thought somewhere could get a localised foot of snow yesterday - that is a little bit of a ramp! Haha.

[Daniel*]

Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

You did say you thought somewhere could get a localised foot of snow yesterday - that is a little bit of a ramp! Haha.

Perhaps! The jury is out really, even decent cold spells that I have been on this forum it was downplayed there’d be no snow nothing to see here, always the mantra of some. Some fail to understand the overall flexibility of the set up. We have snow conducive air for virtually all of next week it is not anticyclonic cold, surprises will happen. 

 

[alexisj9]

Thought I was in the wrong thread for a minute, no point in arguing over specifics, we'll find out in a day or two one way or the other.

So far today it's dull and dry, no breeze, and clouds very slow moving, I think things may have started to move back west here, but not very noticeable, so could be wrong.

Edited February 3, 2018 by alexisj9

[CK1981]

2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Perhaps! The jury is out really, even decent cold spells that I have been on this forum it was downplayed there’d be no snow nothing to see here, always the mantra of some. Some fail to understand the overall flexibility of the set up. We have snow conducive air for virtually all of next week it is not anticyclonic cold, surprises will happen. 

 

Nobody is failing to understand anything, some of us just have a more balanced approach.

Yes, there will be some places which will see some decent snowfall, but this is hardly an epic spell by any stretch of the imagination.

We have endured a run of crap winters with barely any snow, so next week is looking like nirvana in comparison, but in reality it is quite a standard winter cold spell.