SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards

[shuggee]

9 hours ago, Freeze said:

Hello all, new the the forum but been browsing for a couple years, haven't been so close to a proper cold spell in years so hoping for the first settling snow on the Sussex coast sinse march 2013! 

Welcome Freeze

Good name for a couple of days next week...

[Matty88]

1 hour ago, snowking said:

The ECM run over in Weather.us is well worth a look for those of you of a cold persuasion

Plenty of showers feeding in to Kent on Sunday night into Monday, big stalling snow event out West on Tuesday followed by and area of snow moving NW out of the continent (just like the good old days) into Wednesday across much of England. Then another area of snow moving North across us Thursday into Friday, before a snowy breakdown for most away from this region on Saturday - which will almost certainly not be the case come T+0 with things likely to be backed even further west going from past experience.

The first bet to watch is whether Tuesday's front even makes it across the Irish sea - probably 50/50 right now looking at this morning's ECM, whilst the ever progressive GFS has it all the way across to us.

I said it last night over in the model thread but once you get that depth of cold in across anomalously warm seas, big snowy surprises start to occur the closer you get to T+0

A fascinating period incoming

At the same time the intervening HP will be blocking off / breaking down a lot of the precipitation, hence this won't be a 'snowy' cold spell for most of Europe. We stand the best chance of any snow in the UK (Midlands Westwards).

A freezing spell for sure but I'm not sure about a particularly snowy spell for our part of the World as yet (EA & SE). I do hope and dream for a 'snowy surprise' however ! As things stand with the charts we'll be lucky to see a couple of CM's by this time next week, certainly no big storms on the horizon. 

[TSNWK]

Morning Gang,

I created my account TSNWK - in honor of the  last Thames Streamer I can recall ( January 2013 ) a  question for the  experts  will I be able to add an 18 to after next week  TSNWK18  

Orpington Kent can be right on the  money during a ENE being at the forward edge of the North Downs and the  uplift created...Fingers crossed  Gang.....

 

 

[summerplume18]

What will the night time minimum temps will be like next week. BBC only showing -2 on the app

[throwoff]

GFS 00Z seems to be a massive downgrade if I am honest, ECM however has pushed everything up.

I generally find that the ECM is better >72hours and the GFS tends to get longer term trends better so I am hoping this plays out again.

[Snowpuff]

The weather outlook has added a snow event forecast for the SE sunday night into monday. Bring it on! BBC are having a laugh with their temps! I cant wait for todays model updates. For once I actually think we are in for a good covering of the white stuff! 

[Coopsy]

At times I feel this has a Jan 87 or Feb 91 feel to it, then I'm reminded of the disappointments every year and reel it in lol. It looks like its going to get cold - what happens after that is a bonus. Not expecting huge amounts but any snow that stays will be nice. It's all about expectations I guess and not get drawn into the snowmaggedon being talked about in the MOD.

[Lampostwatcher]

Sunday night' is our first lampostwatch I would imagine 

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

59 minutes ago, summerplume18 said:

What will the night time minimum temps will be like next week. BBC only showing -2 on the app

I'd say -4/-5c widely, -6/-7c in rural spots, wouldn't discount a -10c in a rural spot with snow cover 

As long as we get clear nights anyway

Edited February 2, 2018 by The East has Ceased

[Blessed Weather]

What an interesting week coming up! For now I'll hold myself back and just take a quick look at the first opportunity of this Region seeing some snowfall - which is overnight Sunday into Monday. The only 'high res' model that goes out far enough at the moment is Arpege and here's what it's showing.

First of all - streamers coming into the east coast. Don't take the position too literally but merely indicative! With 2m temps slightly above freezing nearer the coast Arpege precipitation type showing it falling as rain:

But if we look at the 850 temps (-6C) and dewpoints (0C to -1C) they are more supportive of snow, so I hope we could see a surprise or two, especially on any higher ground.

Finally, for interest here's the current sea surface temps and anomaly in the North Sea. It's not far off the long-term average temp of 6C to 7C. But the temperature contrast with the 850 temps of -6C is enough to generate convective showers (streamers).

So the Sunday into Monday set-up is rather marginal, but hopefully will give us a covering somewhere. Then further (better) opportunities Monday into Tuesday, but let's get nearer before looking at that in detail. Anyway, I've got everything crossed!

[jgbgt]

So it has begun, there is now a 'light snow' symbol on the met office website for Sun/Mon at midnight, otherwise cold(ish) and grey. min temp though for this area (nearer the coast) only showing -1 and 5 max, the reality will be any light covering and a clearer sky, much colder into Tuesday.

Though as I type its updated to show colder minimum temps to -2 but hourly temps are still showing higher than I would expect. Temps below 3, continental air, low dew points and the cloud symbol means only one thing, time to make sure those lamp-post/outside lights have bulbs. 

Still restraining myself, can we still be burnt? I head says no, my heart says, knowing our luck, we wont see much!

Though today I'm selling my Range Rover which has a set off full winter tyres, therefore if it actually goes before Sunday, its practically guaranteed to snow. 

[Chris101]

Morning all, very nippy out this way in the wind this morning, band of showers came through about an hour ago, certainly a wintry flavour in them, i would say an 80/20 rain/sleet mix.

Models looking steady this morning to get the cold in, and i would say that shower potential for our corner is now just beginning to show itself better, as some pointed out it would, could be a very enjoyable week ahead for many across the UK and from an IMBY perspective i'm happy where i am.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

We are starting to see things go the right way for our region in terms of getting some kind of streamer showers going... Could be some great snowy setups from Sunday night onwards 

Edited February 2, 2018 by Surrey

[Blessed Weather]

Tweet from Dan Holley who works for Norwich based weather company Weatherquest and is also a weather presenter on the BBC Look East news.

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Could be worse.. 

[throwoff]

06Z GFS is an upgrade for Kent.

[Tn9]

46 minutes ago, c00ps said:

At times I feel this has a Jan 87 or Feb 91 feel to it, then I'm reminded of the disappointments every year and reel it in lol. It looks like its going to get cold - what happens after that is a bonus. Not expecting huge amounts but any snow that stays will be nice. It's all about expectations I guess and not get drawn into the snowmaggedon being talked about in the MOD.

That's a pridicted snow depth at 6.00 am Monday.. Take it with a pinch of salt.. If it does verify then you might need a few shovelfuls of salt :-) 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Just for giggles but can you imagine this thread this time next week.. Lol 

[Coopsy]

16 minutes ago, TN9 said:

That's a pridicted snow depth at 6.00 am Monday.. Take it with a pinch of salt.. If it does verify then you might need a few shovelfuls of salt :-) 

That'll do me - I'm under the darkest blue - a few inches. Lovely. I've not seen more than a a dusting since moving back from snowy Canada 3 years ago. Thankfully I've only got 2 years left on my contract then back to snowy Canada. It's fun searching for the snow in this country but very frustrating in the south east

[alexisj9]

13 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Just for giggles but can you imagine this thread this time next week.. Lol 

If it happens like that, will be the first time I've really been snowed in, only one road into this village and it doesn't get gritted.

[stainesbloke]

Quite a nice morning here with sunshine and passing clouds. Feeling chilly though at 5C currently with a moderate NW’ly breeze. 

Interesting week to come, weather-wise! Hope our region sees snow (proper snow, not slush). I’m going on a train holiday around C Europe on Sunday for 6 days, typical bad timing lol....

[Donna3397]

Been now forecasting snow for here on Tuesday evening.  That’s it, it must be happening now

Edited February 2, 2018 by DonnaThw

[Dami]

Just light rain for me. Have rain coat not bothered.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, TN9 said:

That's a pridicted snow depth at 6.00 am Monday.. Take it with a pinch of salt.. If it does verify then you might need a few shovelfuls of salt :-) 

This is typical of a North Easterly, lets just hope that we end up with more of an easterly, ENE is good too. As you can see most inland areas miss out on that chart, its pretty hard to get the wind direction just right for the London area, a trough from the east was being shown on some fax charts, this would help a lot too to get some snowfall further inland.

Anyway Tues/Weds looking a lot better on this mornings runs for more general snow, interesting week coming up no doubt about that.

[SMU]

Look at the updated JMA 72-84  ^^^