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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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thanks for your analysis Knocker,think the track of this low pressure is going to give the met plenty of headaches over the next few days.

looking at historic charts of similar set-ups,it's normally the SW that get hit hard first from these type of situation before other counties in the S get the snow ,or it stalls in the SW before retreating away Southwards.

Most the models currently seem to want to push the low through fairly quickly and allow Milder air to win out.

I believe the final solution will be a big West Country blizzard.lets see .

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This morning's updated fax charts through late Monday/Tuesday

PPVG89.thumb.gif.c2327f16389af8e3504a816c17356d93.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.931cd6ea2f5641d3d6b95540261de9bc.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.95b2970367678646a4a3adb1b7d9e5dc.gif

PPVK89.thumb.gif.2ad829cbe4bc840c21fe27e1877c33cb.gif

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The ecm take on the low and the 1-5 850mb temp contour and anomaly

ecm_mslp_uv850_eur_6.thumb.png.7ee25a4229f41dbc36cb8012b9f93cca.pngecm_t850_anom_eur_5.thumb.png.3eb7ea5892c04d3aab3605952c3fab26.pngecm_t850_anom_eur_6.thumb.png.e7f6ce6781852cf491613863537d3922.png

ecm_t850a_5d_eur_6.thumb.png.f78d5f1da05b331e3553e81f7f1da934.png

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Yes an interesting little wave as you say K moving S/W in off the N/Sea into Tuesday, Warnings out for 10-15cm locally.viewimage-24.thumb.png.13c953cca0c32d36347d2da6ba86875f.png

 

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Here we go again with low level Sc, about 2000ft by the looks of it, drifting in from the south east :) still kept the temp up

europe_vis.gif2018022500.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.45a23bb27f70461dbca6c836bb20abad.gif

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I’m very interested in the Tuesday/weds snowfall. Has anybody got any charts, with the potential snow accumulations for that time period? Those days look ripe for streamers across the country. 

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1 hour ago, Polar Maritime said:

Yes an interesting little wave as you say K moving S/W in off the N/Sea into Tuesday, Warnings out for 10-15cm locally.viewimage-24.thumb.png.13c953cca0c32d36347d2da6ba86875f.png

 

I have been watching this feature for a while.

Still some uncertainity with the exact track of this. Firstly during monday night a band of snow will move W across NE England/E Scotland. Also another area of snow will move SW hitting locations such as Yorks/Humberside and then tracking SW into the Midlands. However at the moment I have a feeling Lincs/Humberside/N Midlands will be the bullseye.

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I don't post here much as my knowledge is far below most here but I do read a lot, just wanted to thank everybody for what is sometimes near real time / continuous analysis, its a really interesting and informative read.

It looks like as is always the case the Midlands where Bedford / Northants / MK exists inland is going to miss the brunt of the snow (whatever amount that may be), there appears to be a narrow no snow strip which covers all of this area. Typical!

Also if you look at BBC Weather it shows next to no snow and very low confidence pretty much all week.

Edited by chillyblast

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26 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I have been watching this feature for a while.

Still some uncertainity with the exact track of this. Firstly during monday night a band of snow will move W across NE England/E Scotland. Also another area of snow will move SW hitting locations such as Yorks/Humberside and then tracking SW into the Midlands. However at the moment I have a feeling Lincs/Humberside/N Midlands will be the bullseye.

You could be right T, the fine mesh Net Wx version, if you have it, along with Fax charts and of course the radar will be the ones to watch. I've just looked at the latest skew-t predictions and pretty much all the eastern side from sometime tomorrow will have convective cloud depths sufficient with both N Sea temperatures and even +2 or 3 C inland to give most parts over and east of the Pennines and Peak District at least a thin cover of snow. For the lucky ones several cm's especially with Ne thro' E to SE hill slopes. For once I don;'t see the normal problem of will it be snow. By the evening of Tuesday if not before almost certainly anything falling from the sky will be. It amuses me on the other thread searching for 6 days down the line if one or two at least will miss the snow fallig outside their window as they argue which model is best!

Time for snow fans to enjoy at least 3 days with snow for most, perhaps longer.

ps to chilly, I'll drop your town in and see what the skew- t suggests and come back shortly

 

 

Edited by johnholmes
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The skew-t for Bedford is much as Doncaster

sub zero at the surface by T+24 cloud tops 5-6000ft so not more than a few flakes

T+48 and tops 12,000ft with surface sub zero but a flow from between NNE and NE at most levels so I would have thought you would get some snow showers, and this up to 28th. After that and GFS/Net WX software shows the convection being cut off by events south of your area. How accurate this spread of warmer air aloft is we have to wait for the synoptic models to get a better handle 48 hours or so from now.

hope that helps

Much the same for Peterborough T, well for anywhere east of and over the hills to our west as I posted above.

Oh and of course whatever more prolonged snow may occur from the minor troughs being scattered about on the Exeter Fax charts. No idea if there will occur or where but it would be surprising for at least one minor trough not to develop with such low T and Td surface values along with the unusually cold air above.

 

Edited by johnholmes
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Yes a bit chilly as you say John! Certainly not marginal.. Very interesting week come up for this thread re micro detail.

1.thumb.png.e753b2ffc996afb20f48709cb0b9e575.png2.thumb.png.001f9b84f12d559cb36785cfd9cc8789.png3.thumb.png.f61048a80853bf58537743ba95e5c795.png

 

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46 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

You could be right T, the fine mesh Net Wx version, if you have it, along with Fax charts and of course the radar will be the ones to watch. I've just looked at the latest skew-t predictions and pretty much all the eastern side from sometime tomorrow will have convective cloud depths sufficient with both N Sea temperatures and even +2 or 3 C inland to give most parts over and east of the Pennines and Peak District at least a thin cover of snow. For the lucky ones several cm's especially with Ne thro' E to SE hill slopes. For once I don;'t see the normal problem of will it be snow. By the evening of Tuesday if not before almost certainly anything falling from the sky will be. It amuses me on the other thread searching for 6 days down the line if one or two at least will miss the snow fallig outside their window as they argue which model is best!

Time for snow fans to enjoy at least 3 days with snow for most, perhaps longer.

ps to chilly, I'll drop your town in and see what the skew- t suggests and come back shortly

 

 

Indeed John and my focus is purely just on the next few days. How often do we see upper temps of -13C, max temps of -2C, dewpoints as low as -10C? The fact this is occurring end of Feb/early March is even more staggering. Personally if the cold spell came to an end by next weekend I don't think I will be that bothered. I think some people tend to look back at winters in the past and remember weeks of cold/snow when inactual fact the duration was much shorter. Obviously the likes of 47,63 were the exception.

Here comes the bank of snow into the E.

18022703_2506.gif

Perrer

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9 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Indeed John and my focus is purely just on the next few days. How often do we see upper temps of -13C, max temps of -2C, dewpoints as low as -10C? The fact this is occurring end of Feb/early March is even more staggering. Personally if the cold spell came to an end by next weekend I don't think I will be that bothered. I think some people tend to look back at winters in the past and remember weeks of cold/snow when inactual fact the duration was much shorter. Obviously the likes of 47,63 were the exception.

Here comes the bank of snow into the E.

18022703_2506.gif

Perrer

TEITS if that moves exactly SW then the centre of that Low would slide through South Yorkshire? 

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16 minutes ago, snowsummer said:

What does skew-t mean please? 

It's a thermodynamic diagram that represents the atmosphere and is exceptionally useful, nay vital, for calculating many relevant aspects of the weather such as convection, cloud heights, etc, etc. It looks like this one I posted earlier which actually shows a big low level inversion under which our blasted cloud lies.:) There is a guide in the learners area about understanding them which our own JH wrote

2018022500.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.c6159d3c0fa8c00ad2dc2d6685e9ae84.gif

 

Edited by knocker
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do the models pick up on convection possibilities at close range?

also i noticed that the radar on NW shows absolutely nothing over all UK and North Sea currently, will the radar also be able to  pick up convection as it is forming? 

Edited by TyphoonNow

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56 minutes ago, TyphoonNow said:

do the models pick up on convection possibilities at close range?

also i noticed that the radar on NW shows absolutely nothing over all UK and North Sea currently, will the radar also be able to  pick up convection as it is forming? 

They will pick shower clouds once formed, not sure about them doing it before but I doubt it

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1 hour ago, snowsummer said:

What does skew-t mean please? 

Take a look in the Net Wx Guides, not sure just where, will get back asap

John

here is the link

Pleases take time to read through. I have not checked it for any problems for a long time. If you have any questions please send me a pm (to prevent cluttering the thread) and I will do my best to answer you

Edited by johnholmes
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I assume everyone is keeping track of all the METO updates so this is just the latest GFS on our wave feature Tuesday. I'll update the latest fax charts when the come out later. And just to reiterate that we are getting into nasty wind chill terrritory

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_7.thumb.png.de7b95bcdedaecaf313563e7a9ef8e2b.pnggfs_ptype_slp_uk2_8.thumb.png.a15e7100a44a9ae80314750b1af73ea1.pnggfs_ptype_slp_uk2_9.thumb.png.00389cae154c753ceb37a3fa59145ed7.png

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_10.thumb.png.073d98d2363d46e6a00257f06841d0e5.png

And the low/snow event later in the week appears to firming up but more obviously on this later

gfs_ptype_slp_eur2_18.thumb.png.21086f6334cbba4126e4a2cefcf47741.pnggfs_t850a_eur_18.thumb.png.f358d03aead7d0b145926f9e514ca248.png

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Yes as Knocker says wind chill now becoming a big factor in the next few days.

Even by tomorrow morning the NW SR model shows minus double digits

viewimage.pbx?type=nmmhi;date=20180225;tjviewimage.pbx?type=nmmhi;date=20180225;t

The coldest pool of air just about covering the country by then with -13C uppers into the east along with a gradually increasing  easterly wind.This beast has it's claws out! 

Edited by phil nw.
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