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Paul

Short range model discussion - into 2018

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2 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm has the upper low dropping down a tad further west

933429781_500a.thumb.png.2434838128fb4b13f0cbd7544cccfa3d.png994239094_ath18.thumb.png.d388596e7d32fe604478b23f52eacf21.png1960028660_tth18.thumb.png.fa3399a2fbc9723fcd9c36f65e3dd94e.png

A little bit dissapointing, that. Still a few days away, so enough time for some possible changes to be made. 

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Te precursor to the atlantic amplification is the developing Aleutian ridge and the displacement of the upper low from the N. canada vortex/trough.

gfs_z500a_noram_11.thumb.png.2b7e098c57c4e297bd61827be8d9b3b2.pnggfs_z500a_noram_15.thumb.png.05fbd4452ce146868ff5c28d59491cba.png

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The 1300 UTC high res MODIS. After the morning cloud cleared a nice little clear window in these parts.

modis.thumb.JPG.7dcca61dce68c80bb191f396f7b0baa2.JPGPPVA89.thumb.gif.e355b60162d0d7e8d03baa0659bbd980.gif

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Not good/ A transient Omega Block and a wet and cold day for many on Friday

gfs_z500a_natl_18.thumb.png.bf0fa2eafe9a24b7ef94419d7a90b16f.pnggfs_ptype_slp_eur3_21.thumb.png.e039158a0cb05fb764cb05bf3f495e2d.pnggfs_2018090212_fh120_sounding_53.27N_1_49W.thumb.jpg.2bb5ef3c51bfd72ce064a8a0ee42fbae.jpg

 

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24 minutes ago, davehsug said:

Can a block be transient knocker?😉

Fair point but it does distort and change position east 😊

gfs_z500a_natl_25.thumb.png.db98c4e8526df59cf0defc790dc3f781.pnggfs_z500a_natl_27.thumb.png.ecfbb0c1f2fc2d97540c5fa441a7d188.png

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Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic heading your way. That will shake things up. 

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14 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Hurricane Florence in the Atlantic heading your way. That will shake things up. 

A few days away though

06L_gefs_latest.thumb.png.2a36996ea98e2f6d5d000705c90e5995.png

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Re Florence, theres now talk of it turning more West in a few days as the bermuda/azores Ridge intensifies moving Florence more towards the US than north Atlantic / UK. Sst's are above average so any tropical system heading into the north Atlantic is likely to have more of an impact

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15 minutes ago, Cleeve Hill said:

Re Florence, theres now talk of it turning more West in a few days as the bermuda/azores Ridge intensifies moving Florence more towards the US than north Atlantic / UK. Sst's are above average so any tropical system heading into the north Atlantic is likely to have more of an impact

That's true to some extent but rather depending on the track as there is quite sharp boundary with the SSTs and this has been a feature vis the atmospheric circulation in recent weeks

cdas-sflux_ssta_atl_1.thumb.png.377ee153d56a7b0d1312b82488f3ee68.png

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Becoming cooler and more unsettled by the end of the week with low pressure beaming more influential.

The NH profile at midnight and the surface analysis

gfs_z500a_nh_1.thumb.png.398783579f2854051d1aaa5f5df76c3a.pnggfs_uv250_nh_1.thumb.png.10afab0559f49c371673d468acd6ee3d.pngPPVA89.thumb.gif.b6ae851a70fb3d5bac4a218b1ae05160.gif

So for today the fronts draped across England Wales will merge and track very slowly south east against the ridge which effectively weakens it, thus the band of rain will slowly fizzle out but perhaps taking it's time in the north east. This results in a three way split with cooler and clearer air to the north of the front, warmer and more humid to the south and cooler in central parts under the cloud.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.8ece13552fb3bdad0adaeaa4a0778066.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.f16d97ba82e016ecefd92d3fdca11b1d.png

overview_012.thumb.jpg.bac99419a9916b70d1528214435b93da.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.5667cce7f181294e85d9eac7bb423dc9.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.b5daca21184ff646a8ed0211c0283abe.jpg

A not dissimilar story on Tuesday, cloudy along areas effected by the front (very little rain by this time) although the cloud may thin in places giving patchy sunshine. But a marked temp contrast, particularly along the north east coast with an onshore breeze.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.c1555468eb718d5fb07020ce6e99ea6e.gifgfs_mslp_uv10m_uk2_8.thumb.png.ab52464d2d7b741991797dc78df48559.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.9568a1e81c940052b80295e9f7e59c02.png

Wednesday is generally a dry and fairly sunny day with around average temps but the change alluded to at the beginning is under way with amplification in the Atlantic resulting in an upper low over Iceland tracking south east into Scotland.

gfs_z500a_natl_12.thumb.png.4108d0c9720b19d46d7943043a732c74.pnggfs_uv250_natl_12.thumb.png.9bc9a8b736850e5820552047ba5480da.png

So that by early evening cloud and rain from the occlusion associated with a surface low to the north will effect N. Ireland and western Scotland and the rest of Scotland and north west England during the evening

PPVK89.thumb.gif.7efcd1e549973c656d5f8e224806bb5f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.37862d24d05c9c7e5405bc65361d9cf4.png

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By Thursday the surface low is to the east in the North Sea/southern Norway area and thus a prevailing northerly wind and much cooler conditions over all of the UK with outbreaks of rain which, even at this stage, the detail is difficult to pin down.

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Friday the low is more organized and now centred over the UK and another cool day, particularly over England and Wales, with outbreaks of rain cropping up virtually anywhere.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.08ddb1ca96e6c0d2e0e04df3cb5be62c.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.a56e15f31ee1bd2b137444e405a2cb89.png

And by T120 the changes in the NH profile are quite apparent

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.ca4615e5f3bbaf13c5c937bfa2aa6c94.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.fdfcfdd3a25ad9b08c28d9a6f4826e8b.png

Where we go from here is not without interest and as can be seen the gfs has the cross Pole trough/vortex complex about to whip into action again.😲

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This morning's fax and the ecm for the end of the week

PPVL89.thumb.gif.533fa96f35cd26c666bd7ac7b1aa799b.gif320100072_a96.thumb.png.92f3443ea1913b3842fb424c03d812f1.png989870829_a120.thumb.png.02879c091d414ea1a97a7b0e9984b72c.png

and the sat image for 0600

geo.thumb.JPG.ab43a71898056b68f89296ec54867628.JPG

 

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The band of cloud at 0900

geo.thumb.JPG.acaa5ccabffda8756e2d7837d78f615f.JPGdew.thumb.png.3d906aed97e7c5380d62b0093e93f81e.png

 

Edited by knocker

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The marked temp difference either side of the front on the 1400 surface chart

14.thumb.gif.0044cd17bfa2bd5395cadd96de384805.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.4cb48c905ab591ec226cd91299fec726.gif

 

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Could be an air frost in sheltered spots in Scotland in the morning and not a very warm day along north east coasts

min.thumb.png.4bce4105f67043275fa1aac75aef4b72.pngmax.thumb.png.0f9514fd04092c66154dfd28c1c8a233.pngwind.thumb.png.49154b1b33eef9a96a85ed3cb050791b.png

Edited by knocker

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An eye-wall forming in Gordon?

forms in N'rn Old Bahama Channel just south of the FL Keys as weak wind shear and warm SSTs allowed for the system to strengthen shown by stronger convection and a more well defined broad low-level circulation near the keys H/t Eric Drewitz

gordon.thumb.JPG.c8439f972bf8d14d91ba5a4237b90786.JPG

Edited by knocker

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Unsettled and quite chilly for the weekend

PPVK89.thumb.gif.65af78eb73bb22a14c7737089b6b0407.gifvort96.thumb.png.cf80f51ec8fb6db6c04170f6fc9eb449.png204338024_vort120.thumb.png.40047d21aeb4bcc83a91c2c74652f70c.png

t96.thumb.png.c351bf79b4808a8c52283c074db6328e.pngt120.thumb.png.1013dc1b0b1805b97ea1126aed37359f.png

Edited by knocker

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