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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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This morning's fax updates seem to be pushing the warm sector and cold front through a tad quicker on Sunday and the 500mb anom. and 300mb jet more or less sums up the ecm. Unsettled with the airmasses over the Atlantic having their usual phasing battle.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.9e7da5e93f3163f1206c55d7aaf2aa27.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.65c997f8a2cdac6fba0364f90bbd3996.gif

500.thumb.png.35d0c5b833d15a9f1c5561b14bc2b9d2.png300.thumb.png.85db8b87d55716d19619912e9106f4d0.png

 

 

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As Mat Hugo pointed out in a tweet the main reason for these hefty showers is the upper trough and associated vorticity and a little surface heating.

The chart from Alice Bentley's excellent site.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html

vort.thumb.png.5e49da94bd6b27b5e148c176776535c8.png

And the high res. MODIS at 1100 UTC

modis.thumb.JPG.be60a488815e4d6b0b253924a5efbd08.JPG

Edited by knocker

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The 500mb chart and surface analysis for 1200 and the 1500 geostationay

eur_full_500.thumb.gif.0735c2407c81f10c1e295eb824f8072b.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.16add08ddb8269646a659751cc632a20.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.893d666bf5e19a89ee59919d28b4cc43.JPG

 

 

 

 

Edited by knocker

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Clearer weather has already arrived in the west and the heavy showers in the east should also clear into the North Sea this evening leaving a cool clear night in most places. But in the early hours cloud and patch rain will encroach the south west to be followed later in the morning by more substantial rain fall which will track north east. There is apparently still some uncertainty with timing of this so at the moment just a glance at the Icon't take.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.4493af8b38351d93a754d0a2712517ec.gif

overview_024.thumb.jpg.91aa60970808ee96459d3fbfc1db502a.jpgoverview_027.thumb.jpg.4ebdd9f673de69d5b1b5c68cfb629f9d.jpgoverview_030.thumb.jpg.6ea31a9304b24e38865502e13352639c.jpg

 

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According to the gfs it is interesting that as the upper trough moves east after the weekend it stretches a way south, as high pressure ridges on it's western flank ,which very shortly creates a cut off low pressure area over the Mediterranean. Will this be important at a later date?

gfs_z500a_eur_15.thumb.png.33452c036f3cb3615efd6cc188c04291.pnggfs_z500a_eur_19.thumb.png.a7c6ff84a619da197217846539327485.png

Edited by knocker

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A pretty illustrative overview in the short range of the ecm, which could be used as a summation of the whole run, of the two major influences competing within this pattern, relative to the UK. The trough/energy exiting northern Canada east bound and high pressure to the south attempting to puhh north with the strong thermal gradient/jet dividing the airmasses. How they phase determines the detail of the weather over the UK as the run progresses and you can see how this can vary relatively early on in the rruns by comparing the gfs and ecm.

ecm_z500a_5d_nh_8.thumb.png.7abce0bd5068be3e1c20af798e5b9e8d.png300.thumb.png.cbeb813d92fb84705f120cda94b7cdc3.png

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Next 72 hours accumulated rainfall chart from WRF 0.05d:

image.thumb.gif.9dc33f4547db5e5b367eae531ad33cff.gif

West is best if it's rainfall you are looking for but everyone gets wet at some time.

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Outlook: Essentially unsettled with low pressure most influential, particularly over this weekend, but not particular cool with milder air being introduced. The current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.441456b2b524d63759ca1e685c6e61a7.pnggfs_t850a_nh_2.thumb.png.b3f3a3630dc7128c909975a587d407e1.png

It's been a clear and pretty cool night in most places but through the night cloud has encroached from the south west courtesy of an approaching warm front.

2018_8_11_300_MSG4_31_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.5461907774cab6db638b035b47d68918.jpeg

The cloud and patchy rain will move slowly north east during the morning with the rest of the country being sunny with relatively clear skies. The cloud and patchy rain will continue to track across the country during the afternoon as the warm front does same leaving much of the country in the warm sector but by evening the cold front will bring more sustained rainfall and increasing wind to the south west

PPVA89.thumb.gif.3543c21e1a3bce6dda1c09fe77ffa570.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.544de6636a6a74b53669b415ab27737f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.a4420e94990571e1a46a8a8d058b667a.png

overview_009.thumb.jpg.027bd74697671bc9ef41f59fc157b41a.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.0bdaf13cd4221a5c9643ee346883f6d4.jpgoverview_018.thumb.jpg.2b3d57fb549634cbb8e509f11a005114.jpg

overview_021.thumb.jpg.9d1ea58685f6052cc93373fc075fec76.jpg

Overnight and through Sunday the low pressure associated with the fronts slowly fills over Ireland as the cold front makes slow progress east thus a pretty cloudy and wet day for many areas with some heavy bursts in the south but turning clearer in the west later behind the front. Some regional temp variations within this scenario.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.4cc08cd9d4566f724d2eb152ccc9c98b.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.1d79becc25d70f747440a3632d1f522b.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.84415ce4a0b3e1851677ad366c455500.png

overview_027.thumb.jpg.1c37d67b08806f63776920d8ae012291.jpgoverview_030.thumb.jpg.af9460cf33cfd9308c61ef6989772b5b.jpgoverview_033.thumb.jpg.4e28c44f342133156536427db2cc37fb.jpg

overview_039.thumb.jpg.0415adfc984ecf3717c540ce3296bd02.jpgoverview_045.thumb.jpg.8c064a53b6868d150373abbbe0a372c7.jpg

Monday will see slack low pressure over the country with a high pressure attempting to ridge in from the south west, but with the odd trough and front littered about resulting in sunshine and showers

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.c0c25bef68ec1b9fda5e11b9bc03b346.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.bce292dd09b71f256dcdd2488607da5c.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.86ae64719a11a1aa95be03195a596d27.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.c288c9cfdfebf71812c17d165ca20bc2.png

By Tuesday the ridge is quite influential in the south but systems are still winging around the norther edge thus tending to a N/S split as a frontal system brings cloud, patchy rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and Scotland and perhaps northern England.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.2f1ac0459c657dfb5a9517b466333eca.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.7137fb75133c47aa044738a53a55d395.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.dd3ed4a9ff32ba9957c8627ce86a905d.png

By Wednesday the NH profile has the upper trough to the west digging a fair way south and with ridging to the east this results in a fresh south westerly, the ridge no longer in play, airflow which advects warmer air into the UK, with particular emphasis on the south/southeast.

gfs_z500a_nh_20.thumb.png.e9ce99b552795094cc68cc6ddd63d778.pnggfs_t850a_nh_20.thumb.png.01e2bc64e4079b36215e227a0624a402.png

But still very much a N/S split on the surface with low pressure to the north west and associated cold front bringing more rain and quite strong winds to N.Ireland and Scotland whilst the south stays dry and quite warm.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.2c06d7920043fdb7c7b3bf863443d7d5.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.fbd4c1d5f018235ea1b4a1e11cb33ada.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.3d14adb08b706c36953efe7c1aaa7dd5.png

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The 0600 geostationary and the 0500 UTC chart. Quite a cool night but note the warmer air as expected into the south west. Currently Sc, St and slight drizzle here

geo.thumb.JPG.26c10f9f615d5017dffb7ea0e22c957a.JPG05.thumb.gif.2120a2c77162276980a1c1b12105b4dc.gif

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The ecm also has the upper trough to the west on Wednesday thus a similar scenario to the above post  but the trough continues east with a strong jet on it's southern flank portending a much cooler day generally on Thursday and wet and windy in the north

500.thumb.png.ffa2e28ce04be036e0924a441ebe6b8e.png300.thumb.png.75b33e402fa07fdd88a0f4ad6e0d5c1d.png

Edited by knocker

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The latest fax charts and the 1500 UTC geostationary which shows the cloud from the preliminary warm front but the heavier rain is on the approaching fronts just to the south west and these will be accompanied by an increasing sw wind. Not a particularly pleasant night and tomorrow in prospect as the whole caboodle tracks north east across most of the country, albeit dragging some warmer air with it.

A clearence in the south west and west Wales in the morning as the cold front clears.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.cae5b2e715c2df673dc066c06036e8de.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.9ab1366eda7f72b31be2766fc7322658.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.09e62143db49ff8521266dff091e6e90.JPG

overview_009.thumb.jpg.8de6607d599de8a716e6356af2915cef.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.8a2bfd08fe35575a5269c071c51af1b2.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.b098fa1d754a2825aac09c06e8a08d57.jpg

overview_018.thumb.jpg.1e27bb5c49212db25dc27f0c4968f8a4.jpgoverview_021.thumb.jpg.ba2e640c14d08917da2c4e6cb5442981.jpgoverview_024.thumb.jpg.59d1998341aad64b6946891e0e99ef8b.jpg

Edited by knocker

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Possible thundery activity on the front tomorrow PM?

PPVE89.thumb.gif.c991102c484e2bee560a200d76bec7c5.gifconvec.thumb.png.5f0c99f41334fc1a3691793edadc71e4.pngcloud.thumb.png.ce6c82d64b4db3dd21fbe84080f6df1e.png

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A deep upper low south of Iceland by Wednesday 1200 and a surface front will bring rain and strengthening winds to N. Ireland and Scotland which will then track south east over the next 24 hours and effect the rest of the country. All in all an unsettled run

1537093958_500a.thumb.png.c45521323e543f7df58881245fed97f2.png1846879245_pwed12.thumb.png.0da7f5e6a37d595aca9ef204b9bcdb83.png

626967433_pwed18.thumb.png.b5312b5a79cfbd38a3f8dbb3627c81a2.png2010507395_pth00.thumb.png.bd17d9415e2aa55a30e90b4e1ff16e9a.png743911941_pth06.thumb.png.90873753d26ddb159a1bdf7281f83fca.png

Edited by knocker

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Outlook: Remaining unsettled but with the airstream periodically sourced from the south west, some warmer weather infiltrates the south. The current NH profile.

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.230061280b079cae4f7aac6f967f84a3.pnggfs_uv250_nh_2.thumb.png.0fe6ac8e14229ae9f3baed29a5751693.png

Needless to say it has been a wet and breezy night in many areas thanks to a filling low over Ireland and the associated fronts traversing the country. And if you want an example of what a sounding profile looks like in such a scenario look no further than the Camborne 00 sounding.

2018_8_12_300_MSG4_31_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.1a6eebed457d9d629368d17031dfee33.jpeg2018081200.03808.skewt_parc.thumb.gif.253f9415b2a403e5e5103f0cc0380ede.gif

Te main band of rain from the warm front is currently straddling the north and the the cold front passed through here quite recently  The main rain today over England, with some heavy outbursts, will come from the latter as it moves east with the added complication of a wave forming on it. As the front passels it will clear in the west but in the very moist atmosphere a little heating could well set off some quite intense thundery showers.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.deddcfdb42c19bf90052e0184c8bfee4.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.5239a7bba37f535723de03f6a0a1826e.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.4dc71128841e651e850692312998758c.png

overview_009.thumb.jpg.e22790a9c83d55a3ba5fbbd71623d5c1.jpgoverview_012.thumb.jpg.c3ea4161408dc041f72b54c4c2a554d7.jpgoverview_015.thumb.jpg.d084aafe600cf931d9a2ab0fe19c2022.jpg

overview_018.thumb.jpg.14ce141bebd1c0e13e754eb70f9b64f1.jpgoverview_021.thumb.jpg.b4401ae279c58e7812797f4a70cb4244.jpg

The thundery showers will continue through the evening but dissipating overnight and through Monday portending quite a pleasant day in the west, although showers will continue to effect N. Ireland and Scotland. Elsewhere the frontal rain will be quite slow to clear the east and it's not until the early afternoon that the shallow low is in the North Sea.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.79ba87765d206a06cd62647c21bbfe25.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.3ee46a082df5dae8680972ea402bc90d.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.5db1ead509fdde04dae0bf84ecee29cf.png

overview_030.thumb.jpg.8ed38e8837268b6560312c06030faa2a.jpgoverview_033.thumb.jpg.10383ef4bd65878259baf97a667449b2.jpgoverview_036.thumb.jpg.f6c0ce1a6c3100b040d743b448fb3412.jpg

The next couple of days are a reasonable example of the opening comment of the post

gfs_t850a_eur_12.thumb.png.56d37544655bb3967dd74980577fa320.png

And on Tuesday with the ridge influencing the south some dry and warm weather here as frontal systems, with cloud and patchy rain , running around the northern flank and effecting N. Ireland and Scotland.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.d47a6381ab9ba26803eef1dd8f705ea3.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.61d5fc54add3050707078b8b93f078c0.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.8d9cad544b4e5831fc70e01a15eca549.png

It's not a dissimilar scenario on Wednesday But the next major upper low is arriving on the scene

gfs_z500a_natl_15.thumb.png.93ecd7e4b1935a15ac6bb78dcc215a03.pnggfs_uv250_natl_15.thumb.png.cb0bdf562bd99c6d5670c99902086bd6.png

exerting pressure on the ridge and the surface fronts associated with this are bringing cloud and rain, along with a freshening wind to the north western half of the country.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.02396868996aea8db0589ff41cc31d83.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.1592a2f4e0869f92310eaa94cb88280b.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.46119e371c347ffc52bec404a972af7e.png

The aforementioned fronts will track south east on Thursday bringing patchy rain and cooler conditions to all.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.b94d3139f3cb72fe4bb7dee197711a52.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.e1e62502e803ea5da2b4631a094ae49f.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.e70f0eaefc73a690f3a8d77db047dd16.png

And so to the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.5f4cf6b19a7066fa43afa3251d60cd5c.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.e7e338b4d9a3ccea3617a25ff1027836.png

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The latest fax has the front here at 00

PPVE89.thumb.gif.359c6e386278443f85e7e2954d81d0e7.gif

And the Arome has the clearance to showers in these parts between 09-10

 

satradar_010.thumb.jpg.6a2e3463d19e86c9eab1ac168f8c88d7.jpgsatradar_011.thumb.jpg.d21750c9cb9797a5768a90b3e5b13eb4.jpgsatradar_012.thumb.jpg.e6d5c52d807e44fc02eb1c3ba72a4789.jpg

Edited by knocker

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Actually at this moment I can see a clearance to the west. The 0600 UTC geostationary

geo.thumb.JPG.7908e3470008ee475cc833e159cef7f2.JPG

The ecn take on the frontal track and rain Wed/Thurs

243735305_pwed12.thumb.png.771c80673672a920bbbfff89484f9077.png1682426576_pth00.thumb.png.37b7e3c88e3d17a207d7bb73420fded7.png1178310372_pth12.thumb.png.0bf26945d4b4ee20c469fc0b4239d690.png

Edited by knocker

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Nice depiction of the cloud around the low west of Ireland on the this 0900 geostationary image

PPVA89.thumb.gif.a529bc35346b11de1ae738bf76f91e65.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.3946f6648c97c2f044bf600f414d0366.JPG

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An overview of where we are at the moment looking at the 1200 analysis and 1500 geo.

The low west of Ireland with the triple point across northern Scotland with the warm front running out into the North Sea and the cold front down through central/eastern England with trough9s) moving through the Channel

PPVA89.thumb.gif.95d2f67a009753e83401cd8377d28c43.gifgeo.thumb.JPG.c63eef000232e9d901b22bc027746036.JPG

 

Edited by knocker

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Tomorrow one wave feature over northern Scotland is forecast to slip south east into the north Sea only to be replaced by another. Thus cloudy with outbreaks of rain in the former area and the distinct possibility of some thundery outbreaks over north east/eastern England during the afternoon,  Elsewhere cloudy with sunny intervals but clearer in the south west.

PPVE89.thumb.gif.034ab26fcc1a49a5964b0e83119f6ecb.gif1311678087_conv1.thumb.png.792e3e055adc44341825bd4261f25646.png239796238_conv2.thumb.png.8e9f57e264d44e77ec82ec1e52e2f7ad.png

80767636_r13.thumb.png.0ea1ad83e2ced73dd2352d1e191efba5.png1481612717_r16.thumb.png.4947e0d19cb52e383d6623362caa006d.png

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This evening's fax chart Weds 1200 and the ecm 1800/1200 charts Weds/Thurs/Frid showing the progress of the cold front and increasing surface wind ans arrival of the next system in the north.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.819febb91f929430af25bf5d277e770b.gif

137615692_wedchart12.thumb.png.752841d85f9a5861d62b6a08b01ef32b.png1514957475_thchart12.thumb.png.f6582971d7324542ed98577fdeab944a.png1600930500_fridchart12.thumb.png.3a2bfe603feb678ae4d7bbf55267ce6f.png

Edited by knocker

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Outlook the same as yesterday which is unsettled that doesn't, within the fluid pattern,rule out  spells of warmer and more humid weather encroaching the south.

Currently the 500mnb analysis has a trough over the UK with the high pressure to the south west

eur_full_500.thumb.gif.7c575c787cf44f3fcd05909d629cbddf.gif

A fair bit of cloud around this morning, particularly over Scotland and N. Ireland and still lingering along the north eastern coast of England with some patchy rain.

2018_8_13_300_MSG4_31_S1_grid.thumb.jpeg.d3712aecc94a262eb7bbd30f1b812ccd.jpeg

The cloud and patchy rain will persist today over Scotland but the cold front should move away from the east coast leaving much of N. Ireland, Wales and England in a showery regime with sunny spells, probably more of the latter in the south west, but during the afternoon and evening thundery outbreaks will occur in the north east/east of England within the convergence zone.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.3e8dfef407feb44702bd7b09ffa53a2f.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.dac55009abb0a1e3b068b1a4b1595b6f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.0076fb4192c56e36dfa22b2633969056.png

convective_overview_009.thumb.jpg.eb03cc9f010775055c9d232eb62ef0f5.jpgconvective_overview_012.thumb.jpg.e662ff1d88ceb898adac914e9458553c.jpgconvective_overview_015.thumb.jpg.9b61b67b27c906c611d445d48cdfd26d.jpg

convective_overview_018.thumb.jpg.64fa6c2abe1ee0e0fc1f4588f891cd63.jpg

Overnight the showers will die away and the cloud and rain eventually leaving eastern Scotland as a ridge attempts to push in from the south west. So generally a much drier and brighter start to the day on Tuesday with some of warmer air as mentioned earlier creeping into the south but a new frontal system approaching from the west quite quickly brings cloud and patchy  rain into north western parts of the UK.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.c751e6569f54dd502c30c92bf9a7cc05.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.51650f556f04e69bb6ceda7abb88b9af.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.99e5102008a9fb571153ccd04c1865b0.png

overview_033.thumb.jpg.697184b1f06bc7a3e17d76846ffb6a89.jpgoverview_036.thumb.jpg.b279c46555627f8e6154649e35301f93.jpgoverview_039.thumb.jpg.1e80196e692a9bd9a5f7716a17d70439.jpg

A quick overview on Weds does illustrate quite well the fluidity of the pattern with the phasing of the cooler air (trough) and warmer air (HP) and the quite strong jet along the thermal gradient

.gfs_z500a_natl_11.thumb.png.6cbc73f0f5beb475350fe25c3bcb219c.pnggfs_t850a_natl_11.thumb.png.597c314a3f56fd561a5ca0c9909dc57f.pnggfs_uv250_natl_11.thumb.png.8d0c2b8ea32fa5fc65c2d72c11a03a18.png

On the surface the NW/SE split continues with fronts bringing cloud, rain and strengthening winds into the former with the latter remaining dry and quite warm.

PPVK89.thumb.gif.69a077a4a4e18ab45527c645cd935690.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.f5ca92db006e820f927bc5e42274925e.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.5ce116c9747fb0aa6c49ef89a0a8286d.png

The cold front will continue to track south east, along with a band of rain, over the country overnight Weds and through Thursday introducing much cooler air to all and a showery regime in it's wake.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.f0d2b0baeacf8acbe881bb9a22466c23.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_16.thumb.png.b5f057cbb82808138d8e3df25b088625.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.9d392ade6601974d761ac8770924146d.png

Friday will start dry but the next quite rapidly developing Atlantic low is tracking north east and is 982mb south east of Iceland by midday and the associated fronts have already brought cloud and rain, along with strengthening winds, into north western parts.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.4d0b58bd928e21594b29be8dcf1a5242.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_20.thumb.png.0883e0f02a3f3a36b1594693c0482df8.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.cbcdb4bac8e876a658f81c7f8c1f1eb4.png

And the NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.3bcafd7e470f9522458035ab6003d7f7.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.da0e6e686c2921b60ae3fbe5053a7d7f.png

 

Edited by knocker

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Regarding possible thundery activity in the east later some forecast convective cloud depths and a couple of soundings that would tend to support this.

wind.thumb.png.0eaa1ad01dc7af92b9bcbb428fed1ad9.png

1026580262_con12.thumb.png.29e653d844ef224a4284690c23174799.png22628448_con15.thumb.png.ed09e0aa0ce8bc53afebce06c3ac786f.png1580952104_cn18.thumb.png.849f54e9a1c2dbf72c80288c53d5d786.png

1791532781_sounding1.thumb.jpg.4b0d4323a32961ddf2525c063e9dbe57.jpg187070244_sounding2.thumb.jpg.ba293ddb7f153afabf7a8bd4d5e66a13.jpg

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