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Short range model discussion - into 2018

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The Icon appears to be taking the wave on the elongated front associated with the low pressure over Norway a tad further west on Thursday than this morning's fax chart. Need to await this evening's update.

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overview_054.thumb.jpg.20983e313e285ed3a4e03d0bddfc0169.jpg

Edited by knocker
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This evenings fax for Thursday and the ecm

PPVI89.thumb.gif.0774c20cb3b1b4f625c1eff544b70bae.gif1339811942_thursrain.thumb.png.2a9f4af98deb2b2bfeb5c6795c297d0b.png

And the low and fronts on Saturday

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Outlook - changeable and generally cooler than it's been of late.

Current NH profile

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.83631246cd241c35e61b9cda4dcaba04.pnggfs_t850a_nh_2.thumb.png.34a1ed7f3d17d083b0c17891accbb205.png

The storms of last night have moved away to the east

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so generally a fine, fresher, start to the day which will continue in many places in the east but the key player today, and as it happens tomorrow, is the occlusion lying along western coasts. This well track slowly east and frequent heavy showers will be generated in it's wake mainly concentrated in northern and western areas. The sooth east will stay dry and pleasantly warm.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.2fb1b2a050117db9908ee999f0d5063c.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.3ff125d56bdf5e79a1411ea6dfa15ece.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.73d4552be392f68dc4136d30c432607b.png

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The occlusion continues to move slowly south east thus still showers behind it but the complications arise in the baroclinic zone to the south east

gfs_t850a_eur_6.thumb.png.4d78376a4e056af9064f2f974384ffbb.png

as a wave develops on the front and tracks north east. The system itself will pass to the east of the UK so how much the of the heavy thundery rain will effect the south east is still not certain but, according to the Icon, that area can expect some showery outbreaks.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.993aa43ce0452359d0c10f335121cf4d.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.d160085d4fdd3a2f094e9ca2c1a82c2f.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.18e9b98b727ad0ce54558f65cfc43ab0.png

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By Friday the low and heavy rain has tracked into Scandinavia leaving the UK in a brisk north westerly airstream with frequent showers and a relatively cool day

PPVK89.thumb.gif.077968682c7de2edeab333ecbb1dd083.gifgfs_ptype_slp_uk2_12.thumb.png.4339225cfedf5c8c3f2ddad6320b7309.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.0b2df4a9a98cd8aca48b78cc9cb5e4ad.png

But by Saturday the depression out in the Atlantic has become more organized and is 995mb south of Iceland with the associated fronts bringing strengthening winds and rain, heavy in places, to the north of the UK.

PPVM89.thumb.gif.649104cab1c7fc632d3a2ccb44695c61.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_16.thumb.png.5a32d88cebabf8cfeb44dce189b4a50e.png

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On Sunday the cloud and rain has slipped a bit further south but as the upper trough has also extended further south some warmer air has been advected into East Anglia.

gfs_z500a_eur_20.thumb.png.ce94ee1fed0cb31f8eb27e0c2b824cd6.pngPPVO89.thumb.gif.d85f47b6d0ee1ab803cb273ba1695f0b.gif

gfs_ptype_slp_uk2_19.thumb.png.43139e6f81d4de5299f1eae78af9922d.pnggfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.44c7728f53a680110258a54e3b8e4eb1.png

The NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.a6a055a2cafebd02dfbdec3524cf9210.pnggfs_t850a_nh_21.thumb.png.91f7e0d7d109c4260f4e16deb6f5b53c.png

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Thank you Knocker , for your superb, "ramp" free synopsis, during the past few months. 

Regards,

Tom. :hi:

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Updated fax for tomorrow and the ecm

PPVG89.thumb.gif.c557540b63e51db7f1edd49894795f12.gif344852214_pth12.thumb.png.f456572338cebf302cd8bea8ec4209b3.png1724547_pth18.thumb.png.9e94f56a4dbbe45f1f00da3e97de024f.png

And the weekend

1047690127_psat18.thumb.png.e214941d6893611593f339fb5792dc65.png1728123504_psun12.thumb.png.95343c3bc82a9f2e3653014d02065dbe.png

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10 minutes ago, knocker said:

temp.thumb.png.8f036535bd68e1fcdacba4a7120904ef.png

Knocker...

What a fantastic job you do on here.:good:

If the above happens it sure will prove the variability of our weather for once and all.

Just look at the chart above...

If it comes off then Spain and particular N Africa are now amongst the cooler areas. The same applies to Scandinavia.

The heat does continue in Central Europe, but to the SE and particularly in the Middle East it is looking distinctly chilly for the time of year. 

No wonder we can become enthralled in our changing climate.

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The high res. MODIS at 1110 UTC

modis.JPG

Edited by knocker
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This evening and overnight the showers will tend to die out only to return, particularly to western Scotland in the morning, Partly cloudy elsewhere but there are complications in central southern and south east England, mentioned previously, as an area of low pressure and heavy rain developing and tracking north east over France activates the occlusion and showery rain impacts these areas during the early hours The main low and area of heavy rain then pass to the east during the day and the precise track of this is critical on how far west the heavier precipitation will be. One thing is for sure. It will be the coolest day in the south east for many a day

PPVE89.thumb.gif.5d337c0e90a5985da74ccd6e246c6eab.gif2mtemp_027.thumb.jpg.0aeb23c7c7004acdfd72cfab96491501.jpg

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overview_024.thumb.jpg.78bab081c44634c578d444e70d9301b5.jpgoverview_027.thumb.jpg.51ae0fc7e5ba2364a38c8d418b068203.jpg

Edited by knocker
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The ecm has the upper trough/low west of Ireland at T72 and swings it east over the Uk by T120.

1161192494_50072.thumb.png.c0e83379e8e703f6c639522ecb0a4a61.png1762015480_500120.thumb.png.769552e28dd717890233eb346104d538.png

Which on the surface translate to a pretty wet and breezy weekend for most of the UK from Saturday morning onwards.

1866622007_sat18.thumb.png.1d21708debf116d5150cbf4d6239efc7.png1858051253_sun18.thumb.png.20a182e5beee452637a0bccc121f4574.png

Look away now if you are allergic to fronts, this evening's fax chart for 1200 Saturday

PPVK89.thumb.gif.f855c8d1464ba344d43a033f795cfbba.gif

Edited by knocker
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5 hours ago, knocker said:

Look away now if you are allergic to fronts, this evening's fax chart for 1200 Saturday

PPVK89.thumb.gif.f855c8d1464ba344d43a033f795cfbba.gif

 🙈

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No change to the outlook from yesterday so this post is essentially an update on last evening's posts.

The expected rain in the south east arrived during the night as can be seen on the 0200 chart and 0300 sat. image

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This rain will persist all day in the south east as the developing wave over Biscay tracks north east into the North Sea. Heavy outbreaks are possible at times and quite how far west the rain gets is still dependent on the precise track of the low. One thing is for sure with the rain and a fresh onshore wind it will feel much cooler than of late. Elsewhere heavy showers will get going, particularly in the north west but all western areas will be effected.

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The low continues its journey north east overnight and through Friday initiating some quite inclement weather into southern Scandinavia and leaving the UK in a fresh WNW airflow. Thus showers will be the order of the day becoming frequent and heavy in places and quite lengthy if they merge. Quite a cool day with temps shading below average.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.fe3c2225ca0b03ebca1b799a66d27d1b.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.02a3670d59192688a90b38bb49c75dd3.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.9d4b228e75374427f99b41256d4ee455.png

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Overnight Friday a very transient ridge builds but out west in the Atlantic a large area of low pressure is getting organized and by lunchtime a myriad of fronts associated with this are lining up over Ireland so that after a bright start to the day cloud and rain with strengthening winds will sweep in ans effect most areas by midnight Sunday.

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Sunday finds the low west of Ireland with various fronts traversing the country on a fresh south westerly wind thus intermittent rain in most places (I'll skip the rainfall charts) with sunny intervals Even a little warm spot over East Anglia.

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By Monday there is a slack area of low pressure over the UK with the odd front/trough littered about all of which portends sunny intervals and showers and relatively warm in the much lighter winds

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And the NH profile as the new week gets underway

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.5a219dbbf84dac3255c06cd4dc2fac8e.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.8076f07537953429fd4a2802b9b1bd9d.png

 

Edited by knocker
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This morning's fax update for Saturday and the ecm. The latter fills the low rapidly over the weekend to just a slack area of low pressure

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.9dcd0f491d0546dbf1f77679edc162e6.gif208927681_anasun18.thumb.png.143635d7c431c25e6cb59a54a0aa9961.png

1589179962_psun00.thumb.png.cda14a3dac6773a158ba4ec0ae86021d.png1673150069_psun06.thumb.png.1f7ef533520b6fea1d5db8910fd04b0f.png469474051_psun12.thumb.png.a3cb7989e2d357fd4fbac02aacb0f8b4.png

877951841_psun18.thumb.png.e2fe920c92fc4cd43901966fa6e17252.png

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The 0600 chart. No big surprise with rain in the south east

06.thumb.gif.f9cf1a2cae4543c767501bbd5d744a05.gif

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Midday high res. MODIS and 1100 UTC chart. A fair bit of continuous moderate rain around in the south east

 

modis.JPG11.thumb.gif.8baeb132575aff04fc50d1f57060b7fb.gifPPVA89.thumb.gif.d3556b6635c9bfe11685e4b25d40a1e8.gif

 

 

Edited by knocker
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The 1500 geostationary and chart. A lot of welcome, I imagine, moderate rain over East Anglia

geo.thumb.JPG.815b5e23e3031bd4064b9d1bbe3efcab.JPG15.thumb.gif.13e3cc81eb62dd17b0ad8b4c248715aa.gif

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A quick resume of the weekend. At 12 Saturday the low is 995mb is west of Ireland with the occlusion, the front runner of a number of front, already impacting the south west  So in many areas Saturday will be fine and dry but during the afternoon and evening it will become increasingly windy with cloud and patchy rain spreading north east. Cloud and patchy rain pretty much the order of the day on Sunday as well but clearing in the areas the cold front clears.

PPVI89.thumb.gif.775668af3bba8aceaa697afaaab6f432.gifPPVJ89.thumb.gif.e684f408cee6084a2439b7339c261c63.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.5a1ffa4f534ef8bca1016914194f3d69.gif

887973344_psun00.thumb.png.3c7f16a69103c2bef325ac140a0b0b6a.png2098795599_psun12.thumb.png.3ea6845ff904606e6d8da311ebf34a60.png946947244_pmon00.thumb.png.5b2fd1b29554fff406b68ed4d857c7ec.png

And this is rarely good news at T120

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Much of this is above my pay grade, although I have been trying to get my head around vorticity advection lately,  but a good meteorological comment on today's events

 

Edited by knocker

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The current NH profile has a trough over the the UK, centred to the north of Scotland with a high cell over eastern Europe with a fair bit of energy traversing a fluid Atlantic.

gfs_z500a_nh_2.thumb.png.c522d7b9c98ed805d9af3349e3aa2c58.pnggfs_uv250_nh_2.thumb.png.4e4a35931d77bd4d349efb1c399cf6b2.png

In more detail. The low that brought rain and much cooler temps to the south east yesterday is now plying it's trade in Scandinavia leaving the UK in a brisk unstable westerly wind. Thus a a bright and cooler day for all but the likelihood of frequent heavy showers, perhaps thundery, mainly concentrated in the west at first but spreading east during the day. Within the flow there could well be longer period of rain where the showers coalesce.

PPVA89.thumb.gif.c0ccd5b6553dc33ddec7b7500cac562c.gifPPVE89.thumb.gif.bd7a77ab76cf6a2bf3a5f446b379c841.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_4.thumb.png.b9090c47d996b944ed5394bf6445844c.png

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The showers will die out during the evening and overnight as a very transient ridge builds heralding a much cooler night for all and a bright start to Saturday. But to the west of Ireland an area of low pressure is getting organized and moving slowly east and a weak front associated with the system quite quickly brings cloud and some patchy rain into the south west in the early hours before the big guns bring more prolonged rain and strengthening winds arrive later in the day and move north east across the country. Much of northern, central and eastern areas will remain dry, certainly until late in the day.

PPVG89.thumb.gif.b740388321f8559a1cc5af42f64a8efa.gifPPVI89.thumb.gif.9a26b13f725770753e9693ae444d9def.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_8.thumb.png.03ba34251f373b7c024919b43392c5f0.png

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The fronts and more concentrated rain continue to traverse the country overnight and through Sunday morning before leaving much of the country in a brisk south westerly warm sector on Sunday which portends cloud and patchy rain, albeit becoming a tad milder. Clearer conditions later in areas where the cold front has passes through.

PPVJ89.thumb.gif.aefe4b61832ede6bde49b901c5cca08f.gifPPVK89.thumb.gif.d6ded829e02ff324932f1f7c7e8cfb32.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_12.thumb.png.c6b2e8bb839953eef8271527962920d4.png

overview_057.thumb.jpg.9cba444bdcafa37e1466cb0db22cb41d.jpgoverview_060.thumb.jpg.58c076064864a6555ef58929dc773363.jpgoverview_066.thumb.jpg.4373beee368dcc3a9726794061070f44.jpg

Frankly Monday dawns with a very messy scenario, best illustrated I feel by a quick overview of the fluidity of the Atlantic and the phasing of the warm/cold airmasses.

gfs_z500a_natl_16.thumb.png.fd607179fe212f90bb92b0b67f1ee951.pnggfs_uv250_natl_16.thumb.png.5a192a0051a91237bd6f757dcc98ffea.pnggfs_t850a_natl_16.thumb.png.942bc73b4c95bc976dc7cfa238dbb773.png

Which all boils down on Monday to another day of sunshine and showers over the UK as low pressure starts to give way to another transient ridge, with temps picking up a tad in the south east.

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The ridge is transient because by Tuesday another frontal system has encroached northern areas bringing more cloud and patchy rain whereas further south, by marked contrast, a fine and quite warm day should ensue.

PPVO89.thumb.gif.c2b373785ba9a75a6443a1b559bb68c8.gifgfs_t2max_c_uk2_20.thumb.png.ff8e925fb4138eea5ccecf7f560958ac.png

The NH profile at T120

gfs_z500a_nh_21.thumb.png.4490c24c19b9c0265f7b8b2eeed66c1d.pnggfs_uv250_nh_21.thumb.png.89c08a50787264886aef3423c968e15b.png

 

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Some big Cu and hefty showers down here which is no big surprise looking at the 0600 geostationary. Also a trough to the south west?

geo.thumb.JPG.da17070b993d92366639d9e80fdfbe75.JPG

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