Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

The ecm

[knocker]

Today marks the abrupt end to a weather pattern that has persisted over the UK for quite a while now which, although bringing some very good weather to many, has not blessed everyone. Nothing unusual there and the transition to a more fluid regime probably will continue this regional bias. Anyway before some detail vis today just to emphasis that with today's low due to deepen as it passes to the north west even at this stage still some uncertainty regarding the specific area(s), and strengths, of the strongest winds.

After a relatively clear night with more cloud hanging around in western parts, it will be another warm day in Wales and England with the odd shower bubbling up in the south west and central areas but cloud and rain associated with the deepening low to the west will already be impacting N.Ireland and Scotland by midday. This will make inroads east and south during the rest of Wednesday with the winds also quickly picking up. Temps in England not too bad and favouring the east for a change.

The front and rain will continue to track south east overnight and during Thursday morning but it's this period with the complex deepening of the low to the north west that is causing some uncertainty but certainly areas in the north will briefly experience severe gales with gusts in the 70mph area, Once the front is away to the south east a westerly, cooler, and showery regime will be the order of the day.

By Friday the new pattern is well established with strong ridging in central Canada ( resulting in exceptional WAA) and a trough dominated Atlantic.For the UK it means a continuation of the shower westerly and temps nearer average but with a west/east bias. But out to the west the next, much less intense low, with associated fronts and rain is approaching western Ireland.

This shallow feature will move across the UK through Friday night/Saturday bringing with it some more concentrated periods of rain and a day of quite frequent, and likely quite heavy, showers in most areas

Sunday will tend to a drier and sunny day, temps maybe a tad above average, but still showers likely in central and eastern areas  but fronts associated with the next Atlantic depression south east of Greenland are already bringing cloud and slight rain to western areas by evening.This will push east overnight but favouring the west and north

[knocker]

The satellite images could well be interesting today. The 0600 geostationary (courtesy DSRS)

The ecm has the front associated with the weak feature crossing the country on saturday with a belt of rain giving way to showers

[knocker]

Classic pattern set up at the end of the short range with the ecm. Trough to the NW and Azores HP to the south west with the baroclinic zone east of the eastern seaboard breeding the odd low to swing north east around the high pressure. Ergo tending always to a N/S split over the UK and which of the airmasses is more influential at any one time depends on the interpretation of the phasing by the det runs. The likelihood is that as soon as you get further out from the reliable time frame the larger the inter model discrepancies. Anyway just a thought

[knocker]

The 1200 UTC geostationary

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1345 UTC (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station). After a cracking morning here Ci and Ac started encroaching late morning.

 

[knocker]

The 1500 geostationary

[knocker]

The gfs at 0600

[knocker]

The ecm sequence T48-96

I'm hoping the fax is correct and the fronts are through here during the morning

 

[knocker]

Good example of a point made in an earlier post. Lows forming in the baroclinic off the eastern seaboard and nipping north east on the jet around the high pressure. And depending which phase we are in on what particular airmass is more influential over the UK on a spoy check

[Northwest NI]

Getting local weather alerts that Hector will become a Cat 1 cyclone for a time between midnight and 0800 hrs

[knocker]

A look at last evening’s EPS 500mb short range anomaly would suggest unsettled within the time frame, A somewhat diffuse vortex/trough over Greenland/Iceland with associated trough in the western Atlantic east of a ridge into the SE united States results in a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic into the UK. With the Azores suppressed to the south west. As always the detail vis the interaction of the airmasses down to the det. runs but as state generally unsettled with temp varying around the average taking into account latitudinal variations.

Back to the here and now

At 0300 UTC Hector is 975mb NW of the Hebrides with the UK still in the warm sector and the cold front to the west over eastern Ireland.

The front and rain will track quickly east through the morning introducing a much cooler airmass with frequent heavy showers, particularly in the north. But behind the front the winds will pick up for a time over N.Ireland and the north as the low continues to deepen en route away to the north east.

By Friday Hector is long gone and it will be relatively pleasant in the fresh westerly with temps around average with a few showers around, mainly concentrated tin the north

But the overall pattern by 00 Saturday sees the upper trough to the west gaining the upper hand for the moment in the interaction with the Azores high pressure and on the surface the next low with associated fronts is approaching Ireland. These duly track east through Saturday bringing some heavy, showery rain to most places.

The low has cleared to the east by Sunday giving way to the Azores ridging north east thus a much drier and not unpleasant day with less frequent showers.

But fronts are lining up to the west and these will bring cloud and patchy rain to western and northern parts on Monday whilst elsewhere will be dry and quite sunny and very warm which is emblematic of this sort of pattern

 

 

Edited June 14, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Moderate rain here at the moment with front still to the west. Sat image 0430 UTC

[knocker]

Cold front through around 0640

[knocker]

Looks like the front will be through Cornwall and Devon by 12 saturday which is better news for my day at Coleton Fishacre

[knocker]

I think I ,may have been slightly premature vis the front. The 0600 UTC geostationary

 

[knocker]

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-3.34,54.88,2223

[Stargazer]

At the moment unfortunately the rain looks perfectly timed for our street party in Reading on Saturday afternoon . GFS 00Z shows the the rain right over us at 1500, and has slowly been homing in on this for days now.

Edited June 14, 2018 by Stargazer

[knocker]

Brilliant high res. MODIS at 1104 UTC (Courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station) Showers driving in behind the cold front And the midday surface analysis

Edited June 14, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Going off piste a tad once more i have been mulling over this morning's EPS medium term 500mb mean anomaly.

It has quite strong ridging in western N. America, a diffuse vortex the Arctic/N. Canada with associated trough over the NW Atlantic. Plus some ridging over Greenland which resulted from earlier mid Atlantic ridging and another vortex lobe Scandinavia.(note the 100mb chart is in the same ball park)

All of this results in a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic and portends changeable weather over the UK the detail of which rather depends on the interaction of the relevant airmasses. Not ideal but this can be illustrated by running the relevant charts from this morning's det run.

 

Edited June 14, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Another excellent image from the geostationary

[knocker]

The weekend

Friday evening has a shallow low and associated front approaching from the west and the latter will slowly traverse the country through Saturday clearing quite quickly in the south west, The heaviest rainfall will be in the north and some showers could follow in the wake.

Sunday a pretty dry and quite sunny day, possible a few showers here and there, but more rain in the west later from more fronts associated with quite a deep low south of Iceland

Given the current pattern this is of course no surprise

Edited June 14, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

A familiar pattern covering the end of the short range

 

Edited June 14, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Apart from some showers around the western Isles today starts off pretty clear, and cooler than of late, in most places but still some cloud around over N. wales and the north. And it will remain dry with some sunshine in most places during the day apart from N. Ireland, western and Central Scotland and parts of the north of England where frequent and perhaps thundery showers will be the order of the day. Showers may well pop up through the south west of England and southern Midlands later. Cooler than of late. By evening cloud and rain from the next frontal system associated with a shallow low is already into western Ireland

The front and rain belt will traverse the country through Saturday bringing a spell of wet weather to most but in particular further north where it could be quite intense for a time with thunderstorms also thrown into the mix. It will have cleared most areas by evening leavinga few showers in it's wake and a cooler airmass than of late.

The next two or three days epitomizes a classic evolution in this pattern. A major upper trough to the north west extending down the western Atlantic and in the baroclinic zone off the eastern seaboard lows are spawned and track north east on the strong thermal gradient dividing the airmasses. Thus the UK is subject to a double whammy, or more particularly, the north and west is, as this scenario always tends towards a NW/SE split. Hopefully the charts below will illustrate this.

A bit more detail for Monday and Tuesday with cloud and light rain and cooler for norther and western parts whilst dry and quite warm in most of England and Wales

Edited June 15, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm Mon/Tues

The 0600 geostationary

Edited June 15, 2018 by knocker