Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

This morning's ecm

And the satellite. The fog cleared very rapidly here

 

Edited June 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 850mb analysis for T96 from the 0600

Edited June 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

After a fine morning it's come over very cloudy in the last couple of hours, initially Ac but lately cu/Sc as well. No doubt associated with the trough.

[knocker]

A quick run through of the developing depression and movement of the active front from 1800 Tuesday

And the 500mb anomaly and wind barbs

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/abentley/realtime.html

Edited June 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm has a rather complicated structure to the low Weds/Thurs and it's interpretation could bring gusts in the 60-70 kts range to NW Scotland in the early hours of Thursday.

Edited June 10, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

A glance at a couple of the NH anomalies at the end of the short range merely confirms that this week we are seeing the transition of the static pattern that has enveloped the UK over recent weeks to a more trough driven and more fluid Atlantic scenario.

With strong ridging over central Canada and the vortex lobe over Greenland there is a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic portending some unsettles and quite windy weather, favouring a N/S bias as the cooler air interacts with the warmer Azores ridging. The detail of which is in the hands of the det. runs.

So on to bit more detail.

Overnight there has been some showers in the south west and along the south coast associated with the adjacent trough but elsewhere it has been a fairly clear and dry night but cloudier over N. Ireland and Scotland with some showery rain .courtesy of the fading occlusion. During the day this cloud will track slowly south but here, with little in the way of cloud, it will be another warm day which could well trigger some convection. These will die out during this evening.

Overnight and through Tuesday, as the ridge comes under increasing pressure from the eastbound energy to the west, some subtle changes are occurring with the aforementioned cloud continuing south resulting in a cooler day than of late for most with the far west getting the best of the sunshine.

Wednesday will be another dry and relatively warm day but rapid changes are now afoot to the west where depressions are forming on an active front and deepening rapidly as they track north east close to Scotland. Thus rain and gales will start to impact N. Ireland and Scotland later in the day and bring wetter and windier conditions to all of the UK on Thursday as the front tracks south east. Best illustrated by tracking the sequence from midnight Wednesday

Brighter and showery conditions will follow in the wake of the front on Thursday and continue on Friday as the depression continues to track rapidly north east. But rain associated  with the next depression will arrive over N. Ireland and western Scotland by evening. The above is obviously the gfs take on this so it's worthwhile looking at last night's fax for the METO detail.

 

[knocker]

The ridge coming under pressure from the Atlantic Wednesday morning

 

[knocker]

The ecm has the low just north of Scotland 974mb at 0600 Thursday with gusts, briefly, in the 70kt range across northern Scotland

Edited June 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Meanwhile over in the east Pacific Hurricane Bud

[knocker]

The high res MODIS at 1221 nUTC

Marked N/S temp contrast at 1200 UTC

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/12.html

Edited June 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 1500 UTC geostationary. (courtesy DSRS)) Some convective activity Wales, Midlands and the south west?

The 1500 UTC chart with temps 24-26C in the south but much cooler in the north

Edited June 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

There might be a few showers hanging on this evening in the Midlands and south west but generally a fine evening but cloudier over Scotland. Tonight cloud will become more general in north east and central and eastern England and this may hang around during the day, albeit breaking at times whilst western areas will be mainly sunny. perhaps some showers popping up here again on a quite warm day in areas where the sun breaks through.

Another warm day on Wednesday south of a line Liverpool to Newcastle but out to the west vigorous wave depressions are forming on the active front and deepening and tracking very rapidly north east hitching a ride on the very strong jet (thermal gradient) Thus by evening rain and gales are already impacting N. Ireland and Scotland.

So a very wet and windy start to Thursday as the complex frontal structure traverses the UK but it is quickly clear leaving clearer showery weather in it's wake as the Azores begins to temporarily ridge.

I'm keeping a close eye on the next frontal system as I have out at Coleton Fishacre on saturday and at the moment it aint looking good.

 

Edited June 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

It's the formation of the second low that may cause the problems as it deepens rapidly over 24 hours. The ecm is indicating 80mph gusts for western Scotland.

The 1800 geo. Some nice convection and cloud on the way?

Edited June 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Interesting to note our Thursday storm and front originating on the eastern seaboard at the moment

Edited June 11, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

A quick look at last evening’s EPS short range 500mb anomaly shows strong ridging over North America with a large , somewhat diffuse, vortex/upper trough over Greenland and the north west Atlantic resulting in a strong westerly upper flow across the Atlantic into the UK. This will portend a change to more unsettled weather with temps nearer average than of late.

Back to the detail

A dry night last night but still quite humid in the south and cloud did infiltrate eastern and more central areas and this may linger in many places though the day. Further to the west it will be sunnier and showers could well pop up in the NW, Wales, west Midlands and the south west. Temps not as high as yesterday with a much cooler and fresher feel as on the northerly drift as the ridge nudges east.

After a dry evening and night Wednesday will be another generally fine day with hit and miss showers popping up here and there but cloud and rain with an increasing south westerly wind, associated with the developing low and complex frontal structure to the west, will start to impact N. Ireland and western Scotland by midday and then move slowly east. Temps not too bad and certainly clearer weather in eastern coastal regions in the south westerly.

By 00 Thursday we have this quite complex scenario with the wave deepening on the strong jet and wet and windy with gales, perhaps severe, in the north

The front will traverse the country through Thursday leaving a fresh westerly in it's wake and a more showery regime.

Friday a continuation of sunshine and showers but these more confined to the north associated with an occlusion and quite warm in the south as the Azores temporarily ridges north east.

By saturday a rather shallow low has moved over the UK and this portends instability and a fair bit of convective activity with some heavy thundery showers in places  Temps near average but with quite a regional spread.

 

[knocker]

Current position of Thursday's front/low

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atl&product=ir

Edited June 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC geostationary (courtesy DSRS)

The ecm take on the low

 

[mb018538]

Yikes - that last chart has a max gust of 138kmh - 86mph!  Ridiculous for mid June, that's more like a midwinter low! Surely it won't be that high?

[knocker]

Just to wander off piste a moment but the EPS anomalies are certainly trending in the right direction this morning.

In the medium term they lose the N. American ridge and realigned the vortex and trough over N. Canada which is good as it lessens the trough influence in the Atlantic and allows the Azores to ridge north east.whilst building heights over Europe. It needs to kick on from this position

Edited June 12, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The METO has the low deepening to 968mb as it passes Scotland

Worth noting it developed in a very baroclinic zone. (fuelled by SST anomalies, tight thermal gradient)

Quote

Baroclinic Zone

A region in which a temperature gradient exists on a constant pressure surface. Baroclinic zones are favored areas for strengthening and weakening systems; barotropic systems, on the other hand, do not exhibit significant changes in intensity. Also, wind shear is characteristic of a baroclinic zone.

https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=baroclinic zone

Edited June 12, 2018 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly one to keep an eye on Knocker.. Net-Wx take..

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1116 UTC (courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station)

Cloud drifting in off the sea here

[knocker]

As seen on the 1500 geo much of the low cloud from the cooler northerly drift has gone from here now

[knocker]

The low developing

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=vis

Edited June 12, 2018 by knocker

[Polar Maritime]

Latest GFS take on the Low at 982mb