Short range model discussion - into 2018

[BlueHedgehog074]

Your short range model posts make for a great read.  

Kinda wish that Low in the Atlantic on the charts could be further West early next week, as will be going to Wales and would love it to stay dry and settled. But I suppose it could be worse. 

Edited November 3, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine
Missed out the word ‘week’

[Midlands Ice Age]

1 hour ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Your short range model posts make for a great read.  

Kinda wish that Low in the Atlantic on the charts could be further West early next week, as will be going to Wales and would love it to stay dry and settled. But I suppose it could be worse. 

Can I second your comments on Knocker,  DRL?.

This thread is a credit to him.

MIA

Edited November 3, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine
To include the word ‘week’ in the quoted post.

[knocker]

Interesting 0900 vis image from the geostationary as the morning light seeps west. Picking up the double front structure

 

Edited November 3, 2018 by knocker

[BlueHedgehog074]

1 hour ago, Midlands Ice Age said:

Can I second your comments on Knocker,  DRL?.

This thread is a credit to him.

MIA

Yeah, it is.  A lot of thought put into his posts!

[knocker]

Nice image of the low at midday

[knocker]

A lot of moderate rain around over the NW of England at 1400

[knocker]

This evening and overnight the bands of rain will move south east as the front and trough do likewise. Behind some frequent heavy showers over western Scotland where it will also be quite windy as the low th the west fills and tracks north east. Quite a mild night with no chance of frost#

[knocker]

According to the ecm quite a wet day next Weds as a wave develops in the south east quadrant of the upper trough and swins north east over the UK

[knocker]

Outlook - unsettled but with the UK on the westward periphery of the WAA into Europe

The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

Staying cloudy with patchy rain/drizzle over much of England today as the waving front, stretching from Norway away to the south west, is stationary across central.southern England whilst breezy with showers across western Scotland. But a wave forms on the said front and tracks north during the day bringing rain, perhaps heavy at times, to the south west and Wales. Temps not too bad

The wave continues to track NNW into southern Ireland during the evening and the early hours of Monday, taking the front back again towards the north west and taking the rain belt with it, albeit the heavier patch still over the south west and Wales, before clearing later.

Through Monday the front still bringing cloud and patchy rain to the north but now dry further south and with the cloud breaking up quite warm with temps above average.

But now a familiar story is starting to unfold with the subtropical high in the western Atlantic amplifying and forcing the Atlantic trough into a negative tilt to the west of the UK on Tuesday and thus we have a complex area of low pressure, with a surface low south of Iceland, pushing our old front back east across the country as a weakening cold front with a new frontal complex following behind. Thus wet conditions in the west but very warm in the flow introduced by these changes

During Wednesday the new complex frontal structure struggles east across the country so periods of more sustained rainfall give way to squally showers with temps still above normal in much of the country but cooler air is being introduced in the west

Tending to be drier in the eastern half of the country on Thursday but more rain arrives in the west as the upper trough grinds slowly east against the block. Still relatively warm in the south east

And the NH profile at T120 gives the overall perspective

 

Edited November 4, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Not quite sure what's going on at the moment as Exeter have a double front and apparently are developing the wave and keeping it down to the south west and so far much of the heavier rain has skirted north to the west of here or though that may alter shortly, Currently As around 12,000 ft.

Edited November 4, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Tonight the wave develops but stays anchored near the north coast of Spain as the upper trough gets squeezed. Thus the front swivels north west as a warm front with rain doing likewise with the heaviest over the far south west and Wales and into Ireland

 

[knocker]

Outlook – a continuation of the battle between Atlantic energy and the block with the former ahead on points by the end of the period so unsettled and ‘warm;. And it’s worth noting again the very unusual WAA into Europe resulting from this  An example being a max temp in Poland a couple of days ago of 24.6C and it’s possible it could go higher

The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

Currently much of the moderate rain is over Ireland and central /southern Scotland and this will continue to move north west, in conjunction with the warn front, during the morning. Over eastern and central areas of England low cloud and patchy fog will slow lift resulting in another dry and fairly warm day,

Some patchy rain may linger over western areas overnight as the front come to standstill over eastern Ireland further east it will be drier but low cloud and fog will return to central areas of England. Another quite mild night.

By midday Tuesday we have the scenario mentioned in previous posts of a quite intense negatively tilted upper trough to the west putting more pressure on the block to the east  Thus a surface low 963mb south west of Iceland with associated fronts pushing east into Ireland and our front, already in situ, returning as a cold front, All of this leads to another dry and very warm day, once early morning low cloud has lifted, but with rain effecting the west by late afternoon.

Over Tuesday night and through Wednesday the fronts struggle slowly east bringing  rain, heavy at times, to most areas as the upper trough remains fairly static.

Essentially over the next two days the energy and the trough slowly gain the upper hand against the block

And by Friday there is a complex area of low pressure to the west of the UK bringing rain, and becoming quite windy, to western regions whilst our old front, now a weakening occlusion, is still active further east. Temps a tad above average

And the NH profile at T120

Edited November 5, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The state of play at 0600

[knocker]

As mentioned earlier some really impressive 850mb temps tomorrow over the Baltic States. Around 15C above average

[knocker]

Interesting geostationary image at 1200. The low away to west swings around the area south west of Iceland, deepening significantly, over the next 48 hours as the upper trough realigns west of the UK. All of which forces the fronts across the UK

[knocker]

It's shaping up to be a very wet and windy weekend. The ecm has the main trough being 'topped' up by yet more troughs emanating from the baroclinic zone around north east north America at T72 so that at by Friday 1800 the eastern atlantic is dominated by a deep low pressure area with very active fronts bringing rain and strong winds into western areas of the UK/

[knocker]

Outlook - unsettled and very windy at times. The key player being the upper low in the eastern Atlantic

The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

Today gets off to pretty grey and dank start with plenty of low cloud and mist over central England with some thicker cloud to the west with rain over north west Scotland and bits and bobs elsewhere. Where the cloud thins and breaks over central and eastern England it will become quite warm  But during the day the now weakening cold front will track east, but more to the point. so will the frontal system associated with the deepening low south west of Ireland, which brings rain and strengthening winds into the south west and N. Ireland by lunchtime and further east during the afternoon.

Overnight the rain, heavy at times, and strong winds progress further east giving a wet night to most areas

BY Wednesday the UK is covered by a myriad of fronts so a very wet and windy day with strong winds, perhaps gales along the south coast, and maybe clearing somewhat in the south west later.

Over Wednesday night and through Thursday the general rain area clears away to the east but the low in the Atlantic is taking closer order and another front tracks east into western regions giving another wet day here whilst it stays dry in the east and relatively warm

Over Thursday night further troughs have tracked rapidly east from NE North America to merge with the main trough to our west and by midday Friday there is a complex area of low pressure to the west of the UK with a deep surface low near the west coast of Ireland.so it becomes increasingly wet and windy, with gales in exposed areas.

The main area of rain should clear through Saturday but squally showers will be the order of the day, with maybe some hail and thunder in the mix, in the fresh westerly wind.Temps around average

And the NH profile at T120

Edited November 6, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

State of play at 0600

[knocker]

The next frontal system which will bring rain to the south west shortly

Edited November 6, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Winds picking up the PM as the frontal system edges east

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-7.07,54.41,1350

[knocker]

Currently the rain is concentrated over western regions, particularly N. Ireland, but this will spread east during the evening and overnight as the complex frontal structure does the same. There is a tendency for this to swivel so heavier pulses tend to be in the west where there could well be some fair totals It will also get quite windy

[knocker]

Outlook - Unsettled with rain and strong winds but particularly in western regions

The 500mb and surface analysis for midnight

Currently the rain is concentrated in the west and in a line across central England to the south east along the front and this will swing north east during the morning and early afternoon as the wave that has formed close to Cornwall tracks north. Thus the rain in south western areas will clear, giving way to squally showers, which will spread east, but will shift north to N.Ireland and western Scotland. Quite mild in the breezy south westerly.

Through the evening the showers will finally clear the south east and any frontal rain north west Scotland leaving a clear night for most but by the early hours of Thursday a new front approaching from the west will bring more rain to western regions.

The problem here is that upper trough to the west realigns a tad courtesy of the block to the east and the new waving front is slow moving so the rain will persist in western regions through Thursday but remaining dry in N. Ireland and Dcotland and eastern regions of Scotland where it will again be quite warm

Through Thursday evening and early Friday the front is stationary down the Irish Sea but to the west a new trough tracking rapidly east is and merging with the main trough.

so that by midday a new intense surface low 957mb is just west of Ireland and this will rain and strong winds as the associated fronts track east through Friday.

The fronts clear into the North Sea in the early hours of Saturday and over the weekend the upper trough to the west remains stationary, realigning it's  position under pressure against the block, which essentially means sunshine and squally showers in the south westerly flow, which could be heavy and thundery.in places. Temp around average

And the NH profile at T120

 

[knocker]

Surface charts for 0600

[knocker]

This morning's fax charts for Friday. Exeter have a yellow warning for rain and wind for some places in the west

[knocker]

Hey ho, the midday geostationary showing the part clearance in these parts. Presumably that's the occlusion around the NE of Scotland