Short range model discussion - into 2018

[carinthian]

20 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Indeed very little rain in the period and the ground is the driest I've ever seen here 

Still cool here in the mountains at 1670m absl. Presently 8 c with a lot of sheet cloud. Heating on this evening. Looking forward to watching the cricket tomorrow on sat TV from a sunny Manchester ?

C

[knocker]

9 hours ago, carinthian said:

@knocker The picture  below you posted again highlights the forecast high temps in the Manchester Basin. Its been a constant feature so far with these synoptics. Certainly does well t in that location with flow just south of east ( May be the longer land track comes into effect, or some local fohn off the high peak). Anyway ,our rather cool summer continues here in Eastern Alps. Looking forward to watching the cricket on Sky Sports at Old Trafford tomorrow, should be played under almost cloudless Manchester skies !

C

You know this area better than me but Tuesday looks like a not bad example.

Apart from that nothing meaningful to add to this morning's post.

[knocker]

The ecm briefly has the east/south coastal regions 'cooler' on Weds during the transition of the high pressure structure.

Still quite cloudy on the 1800 UTC which will likely not be the case in the coming days.

And also I'm pleased to report that plenty of young Sidney's were cavorting and noshing in the sunshine this morning.

 

 

[carinthian]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

You know this area better than me but Tuesday looks like a not bad example.

Apart from that nothing meaningful to add to this morning's post.

Aye Knocker think that's a good example, especially with the forecast soundings cutting off the lower layer westerly drift. 26c/27c very possible in the Manchester area tues /Wed.

C

[knocker]

Short and sweet this morning as I'm off out to the Somerset Railway in a minute

After clear nights last night and tonight it will be wall to wall sunshine for just about everybody today and tomorrow and getting hot in some places. The only exception being the north west of Scotland and the Shetlands, courtesy of fronts skirting around the top of the high.

Tuesday sees another warm and sunny day but the high is now centred to the east of Scotland which introduces an easterly element into the proceedings and noticeable cooling (relatively) eastern coastal regions. Also the possible Foehn effect. briefly discussed yesterday.

Very similar on Wednesday as the ridge becomes elongated and again hot in places but with the eastern coastal regions a tad down courtesy of the easterly element. And sea breezes will effect other coast lines.

The ridge is in the process of rebuilding by Thursday but for the moment a similar story and noticeable hot in places.

[Man With Beard]

Arpege 12Z delivers an attempt at temperature records for Ireland (33C on weds/Thurs) and N Ireland (31C on weds). S Scotland also gets a 31C on Thursday, just short of its record 32.9C.

GFS is a different story entirely, nowhere near as hot in these regions 

[knocker]

Just catching up the models this morning, not that that entails a great deal as the sunny and hot period period has been a slam dunk for a few days now but there is always something of interest to be gleaned from the detail. A quick word on yesterday before moving on. Down in the south west early morning Ci thickened during the afternoon and by sundown was quite extensive. At the moment it is still around over Cornwall as can be seen on the 0300 WV image.

So a brief overview. The sunny weather will continue over the next few days, getting hotter in many places, as the center of the high cell moves east in to the North Sea and the ridge starts to build north east again by the end of the week. This does introduce an easterly element into the proceedings and thus cooler and possible cloudy conditions in some eastern coastal regions.

So the today and tomorrow will be sunnier and even hotter in many places than yesterday, the exception being northern Scotland which will be cooler and cloudier courtesy of some adjacent fronts. But by tomorrow the easterly element has been initiated which will impact on some eastern regions and in a more positive way on some western regions with some some quite high temps possible due to the 'Foehn Effect' that has been touched upon recently. This includes N. Ireland as can be seen on a couple of forecast soundings. Other coastal regions, apart from the east, will tend to be cooler as well as sea breezes kick in.

Wednesday a very similar scenario

And again on Thursday

By Friday the easterly drift has backed and strengthened a tad so perhaps greater impact on NE coastal regions and maybe a little further inland as the Azores gathers itself away in the south west and fronts are not a million miles away from NW Scotland.

Edited June 25, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm take on Thursday/Friday

This morning's 0600 geostationary. Currently some Ci here and many contrails

[carinthian]

Morning all. That's quite a stunning picture of the current storm cloud some way off the NW coast of Iberia, all in association of a cut off upper cold pool. I know it is unlikely to affect your weather but have noticed a stream of what looks like cirrus flowing across Bay of Biscay near to Cornwall ( may @knocker will be able to confirm this ) Just of observational interest. Woke up to another cool morning disappointing mid -summer morning over here. Still see large patches of snow cover on the surrounding mountains at 2500m  and even a bit lower on some north facing slopes. UK it seem s to be the place for warmth and sun so far in European summer.

C

[knocker]

One thing to note at the end of the short range of the ecm is that once again it has the upper trough to the north west and the energy tracking east south of it splitting the atlantic ridge and boosting the cut off Iberian upper upper low

[Man With Beard]

Time for one of my favourite games - which model will get the maximu temperature right?

Today:

GFS, ECM, HIRLAM and NNM: all 27C

  

ARPEGE touches 30C in the N Midlands, plenty of spots over 28C

AROME also brushes the 30C mark in some very localised spots, including near Manchester (sadly we don't see Scotland on this chart)

Little heads up for tomorrow - starts to cool a little on the extreme east coast, but temps still on the up in the west according the AROME (maybe even 32C around Manchester/Liverpool) and the ARPEGE (spotting at 32C just south of Manchester)

  

GFS/ECM just giving a very localised 28C in the Manchester area - so similar differences to today.

Worth pointing out that the hot-spots on these high-def charts are so localised that they may not coincide with offical reporting stations - though for AROME/ARPEGE to be considered accurate, I'd suggest we should be seeing a maximum somewhere of 29C today, and 30C tomorrow.

 

[Djdazzle]

I’d be shocked if 30C wasn’t achieved today. Temps already soaring into the low 20s in some locations. Little wind and dry  ground should also help, despite the fact that the uppers aren’t that notable.

[cheese]

22C here. For comparison's sake, this time yesterday it was 18C and it ended up reaching 27C.

[knocker]

The EPS 15 day rainfall from this morning

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary showing frontal cloud across the NW of Scotland and clear skies elsewhere, But still Ci around over the south west and Ireland ( I can confirm still a fair amount of Ci here) which may be supported by the gfs this morning

 

[knocker]

The 1000 UTC chart

[knocker]

High res. MODIS overhead at 1233 UTC. (courtesy Dundee satellite receiving Station) Sea fog around south coasts? Still a fair whack of Ci here that appears to be thickening but still another warm and pleasant day. And the midday chart

[knocker]

H/t James Warner

Dry ground and strong June sunshine means surface soil temperatures are currently around 50C (at the @UniRdg_Met observatory) ... temperatures widely in the high 20's across England.

[bradymk]

Arpege showing 31+ c Tues, wed and thurs for parts of SW Eng, W Mid and SE wales inland!

 A lovely 28c here in Cardiff. Humidity quite low too which is helping to make it feel a little more comfortable than some more recent spells.

Edited June 25, 2018 by bradythemole

[knocker]

Poised. And from here it would appear to all about the orientation of the renewed ridging NE and the east bound energy south of the trough to the NW

[Man With Beard]

14 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Arpege showing 31+ c Tues, wed and thurs for parts of SW Eng, W Mid and SE wales inland!

 A lovely 28c here in Cardiff. Humidity quite low too which is helping to make it feel a little more comfortable than some more recent spells.

AROME also up to 32C tomorrow in the north west. 

ARPEGE 12Z would see this week reaching 34C in Ireland, 33C in N Ireland and 33C in S Scotland. All would be national records. The model did fairly well today, has it nailed the rest of week? 

[knocker]

The ecm take on Friday

Knife edge at t120

[knocker]

Some max temps today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

[knocker]

The thickening Ci down here this evening

[Biggin]

2 hours ago, knocker said:

Some max temps today

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/18.html

Nowhere at 30 ?? Surprised.