Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

You get an idea how extensive the rain is by glancing at the 1400 chart

 

Edited April 27, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The gfs tracking the low on Monday a tad further west than this morning but still can just be summed up as a cold and unpleasant day for many.

[knocker]

The 0600 geostationary

[knocker]

The updated fax charts for Monday vis the position of the fronts and the low

And the 0600 ICON's take on the rainfall distribution.

Once all of this has cleared the next upper trough is on it's way from the north west around the Atlantic ridge by 1200 Tuesday as the one to our south disrupts (not unimportant)  and the surface front with developing features associated with this is approaching north west Ireland.

By 1200 Wednesday this trough is also starting to disrupt under pressure from the aforementioned ridge and the block to the east as it ducks south east over the UK delivering another wodge of colder air with the surface front and associated rain belt also tracking south east across the UK.

 

[knocker]

Today

Sunshine and showers in the north whilst cloudy with patchy rain/drizzle in the south but more particular in central and eastern areas. But by early evening more persistent rain will have reached the far south east from the wave that has formed over France and is moving NNE.

Overnight and through Monday the low and associated fronts will continue to track into the North Sea with a fair amount of rain falling south east of a line Hull-Portsmouth accompanied by strong winds, gale force along the coast in exposed areas, There still remains some doubt on how far west the rain will spread (these charts are simply the WRF take on it) and there is also the possibility of some wet snow on the higher ground

Tuesday should be not too bad with sunny intervals and showers but the next frontal system, courtesy of the upper trough swinging round the Atlantic ridge, is approaching western Ireland by 1200 and continues east through the afternoon and evening affecting western areas by 00z

Wednesday portends to be quite a wet and windy day as the front moves SE across the country clearing the far south east by 1800. Behind the front sunny intervals and showers. Worth pausing here I feel to take a quick look at the 850mb temp distribution (different airmasses) and the upstream energy flows because as far as I can see it's down to the interaction and phasing of these that is going to dictate th weather over the weekend.

So keeping this in mind Thursday tending towards a N/S split, quite windy with showers in the north, drier and sunnier in the south

 

Edited April 29, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Sunrise on the 0600 geostationary

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

I presume the zonality for this week is thanks to a vortex remnant in eastern Canada?

[ANYWEATHER]

Tomorrow's rain does not getting that far west now east anglia, East Midlands and southeast look like bearing the brunt of the winter like conditions...there welcome to it

[knocker]

48 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I presume the zonality for this week is thanks to a vortex remnant in eastern Canada?

The north Canada vortex and associated trough still a major player with a strong westerly upper flow leaving N. America but are changes afoot thanks to low pressure way to the south in the Ned. area and heights building to the east?

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

3 hours ago, knocker said:

The north Canada vortex and associated trough still a major player with a strong westerly upper flow leaving N. America but are changes afoot thanks to low pressure way to the south in the Ned. area and heights building to the east?

I suspect a great deal will depend on whether the flow stays south of east, or wether the high heads north-est to allow a norterly component.  If the high stays to the east, it should be warm and settled.

[knocker]

The updated WRF rainfall totals. Once tomorrow and Weds are out of the way it is likely that many areas of England, particular  central, the south and east we be quite dry over the following ten days with most of the rain concentrated in NW Scotland, N. Ireland, NW England and north wales.

[knocker]

Worth a glance at the max temps tomorrow in particular those in East Anglia and the south east according to the ecm.

[knocker]

The 1800 geostationary (courtesy the DSRS)

And the updated fax charts for Mon > Weds indicating a temporary respite on Tuesday before the Atlantic fronts arrive.

 

Edited April 29, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Nothing to add vis today merely to confirm a grotty, wet, windy and cold day for East Anglia and Kent in particular.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=temp/orthographic=-0.92,52.44,2223

[knocker]

So moving on, once the low has cleared east overnight tomorrow will not be a bad day, dry and quite sunny,  for most but active frontal systems are rapidly approaching from the west and by 1800 are already impacting Ireland and the Western Isles with a freshening wind and rain. A welcome contrast from today in the south east.

The front and rain traverse the country on Wednesday but quite slow to clear the south east, as a ridge pushes north east in it;s wake introducing drier weather.

But this ridging north east towards the intensifying European high pressure to the east is still relatively fragile under continuing pressure from the energy exiting North America so although the southern half of the UK is tending dry and warmer over the next couple of days the far north west remains unsettled and cooler. Albeit this is relative and generally the temps are on the up.

Need to leave it there but to put it in a fuller context this morning's 2-7 GEFS anomalies. (and a reminder of course that this just the GFS.

 

Edited April 30, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Satellite at 0450 UTC

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC geostationary (courtesy DSRS)

[knocker]

The end of the week with the ecm merely confirming that the percentage play remains A NW/SE split with temps creeping above average, particularly in the south.

The 0800 surface chart indicating rain confined to the south east

 

[knocker]

The 0900 geostationary. Just to note 30-40mm of rain has already fallen in parts of Kent and 55 mph gusts are expected along the coasts.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/orthographic=-0.87,53.54,2223

[knocker]

The high res. MODIS at 1130 UTC

[knocker]

The belt of rain and strong winds will eventually clear east later today heralding a much quieter night and sunnier day all-round tomorrow as a weak transient ridge passes through with much more respectable temps. Transient because by midday rain from the approaching frontal systems from the west will already be impacting Ireland and the Western Isles and these will traverse the country during the afternoon and evening with probably only the far south east escaping.

[knocker]

The 1800 geostationary illustrating that the low is still affecting the east coast and the wodge of cloud associated with the complex sytem in mid atlantic which will affect the UK later tomorrow.

And the fax charts through Weds > Thurs with the temps starting to ick up on Thursday after the wet Wednesday/

[knocker]

Today

A dry and sunny start after some frost in some areas but frontal systems approaching from the west will bring rain and strengthening winds into Ireland and the western isles by midday. The rain will slowly move east during the afternoon and evening affecting all but the far south east. Temps a welcome relief for many in the south east after yesterday.

Overnight and through Wednesday the front/rain belt continues slowly east, clearing the east coast by late afternoon, leaving sunshine and showers in it's wake in the brisk north westerly, which will be heavy and fairly frequent in the north west. Not a particularly warm day for all.

We now enter a period best summed up by glancing at the GEFS 2-7 anomaly. The key features being the intense trough to the north west, European high pressure with additional ridging into the Arctic and the upper trough over the Mediterranean. Thus the strong westerly upper flow diverges in the eastern Atlantic allowing the Azores to ridge north east to connect to the European HP

The upshot of this on the surface is a trend to a NW/SE split so that on Thursday and Friday the south and east are dry and sunny whilst the north west is fairly breezy with patchy rain but temps are now beginning to trend in the right direction.

By Saturday the ridge/high pressure is consolidating with just N. Ireland and the north west of Scotland still liable to some patchy rain whilst the rest of the UK is dry and sunny with the temps still traveling nicely in the right direction and as can be seen, the warmer air gaining some traction.

 

[knocker]

Satellite at 0440 UTC

And cloud and warmer air aloft into Valentia at 00 but not Camborne

Edited May 1, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The 0600 UTC geostationary highlighting yesterday's culprit and the frontal cloud over Ireland