Model output discussion - into 2018

[SMU]

IKON out the blocks out to 180

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM takes a step towards GFS it seems

[Cheshire Freeze]

GEM goes on to fill the Atlantic troughing, to sort of save the run so that all is not lost...

All very messy though

Edited January 4, 2018 by CreweCold

[SMU]

7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GEM takes a step towards GFS it seems

Yeah a slide 

UKMO 144 very very similar to ECM 144 last night

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yeah a slide 

UKMO 144 very very similar to ECM 144 last night

UKMO day 6 still looks decent Steve

The issue is, even with the UKMO the decent uppers are well out E...and the modelling at present isn't showing an easy way to get them to our shores. No point in having a battle ground scenario with no cold uppers/associated low dew points to interact with any precipitation.

Edited January 4, 2018 by CreweCold

[SMU]

^^ yeah high lifting along with that vortex chunk would be similar to IKON

did say 144 was transition day —

12z should see better clarity

meanwhile GFS edging closer..

[booferking]

Is it just me but have the models not moved more towards gfs highs all very flabby not rebust colder uppers looks further away than ever?

Gem especially so later on.

[Banbury]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Is it just me but have the models not moved more towards gfs highs all very flabby not rebust colder uppers looks further away than ever?

Gem especially so later on.

It looks that way to me 

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Is it just me but have the models not moved more towards gfs highs all very flabby not rebust colder uppers looks further away than ever?

Gem especially so later on.

No it's not just you. The GEM has taken a shift towards the GFS and the GFS has inched towards the Euros. As I was saying last night, a meet in the middle sort of setup was always likely. No one model is at fault, they all initially either over inflated the HP or tanked it SE too fast ala GFS.

As I was saying, the issue is now that the halfway house may not be enough to land us what we want from all of this. The GEM run highlights perfectly the sort of no mans land I referred to last night.

[igloo]

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Is it just me but have the models not moved more towards gfs highs all very flabby not rebust colder uppers looks further away than ever?

Gem especially so later on.

it looks like the GFS was not far of the mark al along after the name calling it has got for the past 3 days its turning more into a non event sadly

[Ali1977]

Was hoping for a good start today with regard sustained cold, not looking too good so far ,Uppers also less cold this morning. ECM to go so hopefully that is good.

quite a long battleground period though, so maybe that will bring some snow for some.

Edited January 4, 2018 by Ali1977

[The Eagle]

I reckon GME should take the place of the GEM as the world's foremost model.

[Mucka]

If anyone saw my post last night comparing 12z runs over 24h then it was apparent the GEM, UKMO and ECM all took steps backward away from a classic Easterly draw.

In reality all models are on the move to a point of convergence which is probably not a million miles from UKMO 00z

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, The Eagle said:

I reckon GME should take the place of the GEM as the world's foremost model.

Don't worry, I'm sure we'll be hearing all about the merits of the ICON as the day wears on 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

If anyone saw my post last night comparing 12z runs over 24h then it was apparent the GEM, UKMO and ECM all took steps backward away from a classic Easterly draw.

In reality all models are on the move to a point of convergence which is probably not a million miles from UKMO 00z

Sadly, I expect the UKMO may even be a tad optimistic but we'll see. Day 6 UKMO doesn't look all that bad.

[northwestsnow]

I see the manic depressives are up early!!

Lets see what EC comes up with before the crowing starts..

Ps ukmo might be a bit more interesting than some think..

Edited January 4, 2018 by northwestsnow

[Mucka]

5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Sadly, I expect the UKMO may even be a tad optimistic but we'll see. Day 6 UKMO doesn't look all that bad.

It isn't bad at all if surface cold and dry floats your boat. 

It wouldn't take much to get neg uppers though and then the battleground scenario could yield snow instead of rain and drizzle.

There is also the possibility that we could get improvements from day 7 I guess but currently it looks like the models are more and more reluctant to put enough energy in the Southern arm of the jet, we will see.

Edited January 4, 2018 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Mucka said:

It isn't bad at all if surface cold and dry floats your boat. 

It wouldn't take much to get neg uppers though and then the battleground scenario could yield snow instead of rain and drizzle.

Well at this point I'd take surface cold over a flow dragged up from the Mediterranean and beyond!

[booferking]

Hopefully EC can come up with the goods a little later.

[The Eagle]

4 minutes ago, booferking said:

Hopefully EC can come up with the goods a little later.

Nah, we want the ICON ensembles.

[Daniel*]

UKMO is very good in my opinion on the face of it, it may not look good.

Consistent with taking +ve heights to NE poleward that’s important sustains the longevity of the block and subtle hints of the Atlantic disrupting se against the block. In no man’s land at 144 but 168 will be interesting to see! 

[northwestsnow]

Well if EC collapses the block this morning i will unreservdly eat humble pie!!!

Dont think it will tho..

[mulzy]

Morning folks - the 0z GEFS are better though so the trending is not all one way...

Edited January 4, 2018 by mulzy

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

UKMO is very good in my opinion on the face of it, it may not look good.

Consistent with taking +ve heights to NE poleward that’s important sustains the longevity of the block and subtle hints of the Atlantic disrupting se against the block. In no man’s land at 144 but 168 will be interesting to see! 

Correct! Look at the mighty waa ( i really liked that band in the 1980s)going up towards the arctic..

[West is Best]

22 minutes ago, Mucka said:

If anyone saw my post last night comparing 12z runs over 24h then it was apparent the GEM, UKMO and ECM all took steps backward away from a classic Easterly draw.

In reality all models are on the move to a point of convergence which is probably not a million miles from UKMO 00z

I think that's basically right. It's not a bad set up for a few days with a particularly cold weekend but the real fun being shown by ECM, GEM and briefly UKMO has yielded. The 0z UKMO is certainly not bad but you're right about the convergence, and it's exactly what GFS showed run by run, to the frustration of us oldies and coldies who wanted more snow action. A retrograding high back towards Shetland to allow the vicious easterly was bucking the form horse which is a sinker or slider. We've seen the latter all too often. My concerns were raised by the failure of almost any GFS ensembles to come on board: they didn't seem to entertain the ECM / GEM / UKMO scenario and it looks as if GFS has been proved right again. Which is irritating  

It will still not exactly be warm!! And there's still a chance of some cold upgrading. We await the ECM with great interest and the ensembles to see if there are any chinks.