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Model output discussion - into 2018

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No change to the ecm!!unbelievable ecm and continues from this morning!!bitterly cold 168 hour chart!!ice days across england and snow grains!!

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

I think some are being a little picky here, I mean come on, when did we last see this for heavens sake 

3BD35CCD-740F-40B0-971D-D43149AFEBEE.thumb.png.2ca206407eb2bfd91cd6a6e3328e25ef.png

Yes i agree...

Its chalk n cheese to Gfs

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It's remarkable how the GEM and ECM have hand-held over the last 4-5 outputs.  Never put them as bedfellows! Incredible stuff!!

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1 minute ago, Day 10 said:

I thought you were off to work? :D

I am...hehe i could nt resist looking on my fone...

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Theres little difference between this ECM run and the morning upto T168hrs..

Its because we only get the 24 hr intervals.

Sag gate seems to have developed and its a brief thing which happens before the troughing over Scandi digs south again.

There is 0 room for error now Nick in the initial stages. That is what has changed. Any further drifts towards the GFS and the block we see at 168 hrs doesn't happen.

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Marvellous EC !!.

Atlantic kicked into touch.

:)

Agreed, it's all about the trend, next week would become progressively colder according to the Ecm 12z:):cold-emoji:

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

There is 0 room for error now Nick in the initial stages. That is what has changed. Any further drifts towards the GFS and the block we see at 168 hrs doesn't happen.

But the ecm hasn’t drifted towards the gfs?  Not from what I’ve seen anyway. 

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Just now, CreweCold said:

There is 0 room for error now Nick in the initial stages. That is what has changed. Any further drifts towards the GFS and the block we see at 168 hrs doesn't happen.

There is no drift or movement towards the GFS. The GFS is 3 days behind on its modelling of the energy split. 

 

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The real action looks to be towards the end of next week rather than the initial 'setting-up' phase this weekend.

image.thumb.png.3c2967582fbf6a827dee20eb96af70ed.png

Note the growing cold pool to the east which is often underestimated by the models, especially at this range

image.thumb.png.af5e7d9e2926644c17f18801a10826d0.png

Edited by Purga

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3 minutes ago, shaky said:

No change to the ecm!!unbelievable ecm and continues from this morning!!bitterly cold 168 hour chart!!ice days across england and snow grains!!

Snow grains were the pre-cursor to a proper snowfall in the 70s 

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Government Health Warning: Get the cold in first, then worry about the detail.

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Just now, mountain shadow said:

There is no drift or movement towards the GFS. The GFS is 3 days behind on its modelling of the energy split. 

 

By 192 90% of the jet is roaring across the top of the block

ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

Yesterday the ECM showed the block being sustained by the majority of jet split going under. The Azores high wants to link with the block here and that is dicey as it can have the effect of pulling the block to a more S'ly latitude.

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3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

There is 0 room for error now Nick in the initial stages. That is what has changed. Any further drifts towards the GFS and the block we see at 168 hrs doesn't happen.

And even if it does AND the 850's are cold, unless the 500mb heights are a lot lower then people in the Eastern side of England will be salivating at the mouths looking forward to a few snow grains, ive looked back at Easterlies in the past and the common denominator in all potent convective Easterlies is low 500mb heights.

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

By 192 90% of the jet is roaring across the top of the block

ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

Yesterday the ECM showed the block being sustained by the majority of jet split going under. The Azores high wants to link with the block here and that is dicey as it can have the effect of pulling the block to a more S'ly latitude.

At +192 Crewe? the gfs is still playing catch up at +96. Or am I missing something here

 

Edited by karlos1983

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

By 192 90% of the jet is roaring across the top of the block

ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

Yesterday the ECM showed the block being sustained by the majority of jet split going under. The Azores high wants to link with the block here and that is dicey as it can have the effect of pulling the block to a more S'ly latitude.

Damn that winter killer, let's hope we get some trough disruption...

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850 hpas are disappointing and, subsequently the snow potential isn't great. However, get the pattern in place and the rest will follow, and the pattern from the ECM is very good.

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

I think some are being a little picky here, I mean come on, when did we last see this for heavens sake 

3BD35CCD-740F-40B0-971D-D43149AFEBEE.thumb.png.2ca206407eb2bfd91cd6a6e3328e25ef.png

If that doesn’t scream cold and potential, I really don’t know what does 

quite karlos. the ECM is rock-steady in modelling a scandi high and an easterly. it looks like it might actually happen. that fact alone is excellent but apparently its still 'not good enough'!!

anyway, allowing for the 12 hour interval, (which some seem to forget) it looks pretty much the same as the last run. - looking good...

 

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Just now, karlos1983 said:

At +192 Crewe? the gfs is still playing catch up at +96. It am I missing something here

 

I meant on the ECM- Majority of jet heading W-E across top of the block

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

By 192 90% of the jet is roaring across the top of the block

ECH1-192.GIF?03-0

Yesterday the ECM showed the block being sustained by the majority of jet split going under. The Azores high wants to link with the block here and that is dicey as it can have the effect of pulling the block to a more S'ly latitude.

And true enough by 216 hrs the block is being pressured SE

ECH1-216.GIF?03-0

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I think some people are looking at a different ECM run to me. ECM continues the theme, cold, less cold then very cold

ECU0-216.thumb.gif.d5d8e99f72583927b417a53dc6f132a3.gif

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