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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Differences yes. Downgrades...no 

Its a definite downgrade, it did undercut on the last run, its now odds on not to.

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25% of the GEFS are really good.  Knife-edge continues....

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6 minutes ago, MR EXTREMES said:

ECM will be even better than this mornings.

And the gem will continue with a wintry theme.

An easterly is coming that's the first bit.

Rest will evolve and surprises very likely.

That doesn't even rhyme  :)

I think we're heading for a meh of an 12z ECM....something that is no disaster but at the same time does move away from the promises of the 0z

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23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a definite downgrade, it did undercut on the last run, its now odds on not to.

Do you think it will just push the block out of the way, when do we get a look at the extended UKMO?

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40 minutes ago, booferking said:

Just 4 degrees colder and we are all happy then.:rofl:

 

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1 minute ago, Fear Sneachta Bàn said:

Do you think it will just push the block out of the way, when do we get a look at the extended UKMO?

About 8 0 clock (ish),  I  don't just think it will blast it out of the way at all, I just cant see an undercut by where we end up with a sustained frigid Easterly which was on the menu on the 0z UKMO and now isn't, was on the menu with the 0zGEM, now not so potent, and was on the menu with ECMWF 0z and in an hours time.........

I have always been dubious but usually with these very cold surface scenarios, you at least get a CHANCE at least of a battleground, and the GFS is usually quick to do this because of its precipitation type bias towards snow, but not one run yet has delivered, however, the Met Office are not only mentioning snow in the monthly, they are mentioning a number of significant events as the transition to mild eventually wins out so we must be in with a shout.

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Haven't posted much but my opinion is that the GFS in an improvement and the UKMO is a bit of a step back.

However there is potential for a chilly easterly still. Cold air also building very quickly to the far east! Will provide a more detailed post later about the whole evolution.

Anyhow happy new year everyone, I'll leave with a great easterly on P2, the GFS ensembles are an improvement this evening:

image.thumb.png.273102fa26ccb22fa0c9e30a91fff523.png

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27 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Its a definite downgrade, it did undercut on the last run, its now odds on not to.

Thanks for confirming it is odds on not to. That is one less thing to worry about.

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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Thanks for confirming it is odds on not to. That is one less thing to worry about.

Thanks for the sarcasm.

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Not sure which is more bitter: Some of the posts or the model output :)

Anyway - ECM out to 96 hours. I would comment on the output but I'm useless at interpreting the ECM due to the large time difference between frames. 

http://images.meteociel.fr/im/241/ECM1-96_tby1.GIF

ECM0-96_kvj3.GIF

Edited by MattStoke

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ECM day 4 looks good to me. Closer to UKMO rather than the GFS (though not as good as last night's day 5 ECM).

 

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Ecm boring up to 96 hours!!uppers of -3!!hell i think gfs is colder than the ecm at that time!!and that says a lot!!

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ECM 120 flat Easterly with minimal intrusion of the 0c isotherm 

7CC26FAE-2D7E-4CE4-9E87-D9B337E71659.thumb.png.f45f36a08b9bcb1788feacce2e4597c9.png

we are now in the building stage 144 -

so if it’s going to be great it will be 168 not 144 - but 144 will be the clue...

S

 

 

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm boring up to 96 hours!!uppers of -3!!hell i think gfs is colder than the ecm at that time!!and that says a lot!!

Its fine at 120 mate :)

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm boring up to 96 hours!!uppers of -3!!hell i think gfs is colder than the ecm at that time!!and that says a lot!!

It's not about the initial E'ly waft though...that was always going to be transient, which is what I was saying the other night. The high stakes are involved with the progression thereafter.

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Ecm boring up to 96 hours!!uppers of -3!!hell i think gfs is colder than the ecm at that time!!and that says a lot!!

Doesn't the ECM tend to underdo uppers? Would be cold and frosty at the surface I imagine. Plus good building blocks (just no snow blocks yet).

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Massive 144 hours coming up!!cmon ecm put up a show and i be confident of a beauty of an 18z gfs!!

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