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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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Ignoring next weekend/early next week, as I'm fed-up of playing hunt-the-snow-grain...at this point, the trusty GFS seems to have plenty of potential - for a possible Euro-Azores link up - if not a lot else!

h850t850eu.png

But, by the time we get to this, it resembles an O-Level question: draw and name the usual position of the main weather-features that affect the UK's winter:

h850t850eu.png

I couldn't have placed the Icelandic Low & the Azores High any better if I'd tried!:yahoo:

 

 

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25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

It isn't as good as this morning i agree.

Surely the block is more robust on th12z thus delaying the undercut I wouldn't say a down grade.:D

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

Edited by winterof79

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Please refer to Phils post above- it would be dry and cold at the surface.....

Useful for a snow event where frontal systems push up against the surface cold. No use for generating convective snow showers off the North Sea.

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18 minutes ago, warrenb said:

You were all moaning about uppers last month and lo and behold a lot of you got snow at -2 uppers

That's because we were all 'on our uppers', back then...Now, we've got Snowmageddon to look forward to!:rofl:

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Just now, winterof79 said:

Surely the block is more robust on th12z thus delaying the undercut I wouldn't say a down grade.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

00Z showed a cut off high north of Scotland- the 12z doesn't, so in that respect i would say its a slight downgrade- it does however  leave open the door for frontal snowfall from 144 onwards.

Its fine margins though so i think this rollercoaster is just beginning-GFS is steadfastly refusing to play ball..

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7 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Ignoring next weekend/early next week, as I'm fed-up of playing hunt-the-snow-grain...at this point, the trusty GFS seems to have plenty of potential - for a possible Euro-Azores link up - if not a lot else!

h850t850eu.png

But, by the time we get to this, it resembles an O-Level question: draw and name the usual position of the main weather-features that affect the UK's winter:

h850t850eu.png

I couldn't have placed the Icelandic Low & the Azores High any better if I'd tried!:yahoo:

 

 

God!...please don't let this happen, only 1 way the weather will go from there and as you put it but in another way through a school test - Zonal!

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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Surely the block is more robust on th12z thus delaying the undercut I wouldn't say a down grade.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

I agree and this could set up some fun and games as the fronts from the west hit the in situ cold. I think it is very interesting times.

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2 minutes ago, danm said:

Useful for a snow event where frontal systems push up against the surface cold. No use for generating convective snow showers off the North Sea.

Agreed :)

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Can anyone with a good knowledge clarify when cold uppers ( e.g. < -6) are needed and when they are not needed for decent snow to occur? 

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5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Surely the block is more robust on th12z thus delaying the undercut I wouldn't say a down grade.:D

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png

That looks absolutely fine to me, energy under the block.

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2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

That looks absolutely fine to me, energy under the block.

Thats this mornings-(168).

Edited by northwestsnow

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1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

That looks absolutely fine to me, energy under the block.

knowing our luck that UKMO at 168z will fill in situ...

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Whatever your chosen method of predicting the weather, the 'ignore' function is a great way of making the Model Discussion Thread a calmer experience. :)

It will be an interesting ECM shortly. At the moment it seems pretty certain that we will have a few days of cold, hopefully sunny, weather. It looks pretty dry to me but that will be a change to today and tomorrow and the variation in weather is one of the great things about living in the UK. 

 

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Anyway- must dash to work fingers crossed for a decent EC-

Been an enjoyable discussion about the 12zs.

:)

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3 minutes ago, londonblizzard said:

Can anyone with a good knowledge clarify when cold uppers ( e.g. < -6) are needed and when they are not needed for decent snow to occur? 

As mentioned in one of my replies above, cold uppers are needed in order to generate snow showers off the North Sea. 

Deep cold uppers are not needed in battleground scenarios where weather fronts push up against a block of surface cold. For example both snow events from December occurred with relatively mild uppers.

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UKMO is not that bad. Compare these two charts. There are a few differences:
1. The date ( 24h difference)
2. CAA is more south then east.
3. The high looks more solid

UW144-21.GIF?03-17

UW144-21.GIF?02-12

 

Edited by koeleboe

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I'll leave you all with the ukmo 120-144 transition, you can make you r minds up where this is going at 168-

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

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1 minute ago, timboy666 said:

you work nights northwestsnow

Fraidso :(

And im starting with this horrid chest infection too - double :(

Hopefully EC will be decent tonight- ive posted the ukmo 120-144 transition below- looks good to me!!

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats this mornings-(168).

So the 12z UKMO at 144h should of looked like this                            instead the output ended up like :whistling:             BIG DIFFERENCE'S :hi:

image.thumb.png.d36033a2e1ec969dce27a57c5f0fc907.png                                                      UW144-21_lxg0.GIF

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ECM will be even better than this mornings.

And the gem will continue with a wintry theme.

An easterly is coming that's the first bit.

Rest will evolve and surprises very likely.

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2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

So the 12z UKMO at 144h should of looked like this                            instead the output ended up like :whistling:             BIG DIFFERENCE'S :hi:

image.thumb.png.d36033a2e1ec969dce27a57c5f0fc907.png                                                      UW144-21_lxg0.GIF

It’s only been 12 hours since that 168 chart was produced, so I think you’re wrong here. Will need to see tomorrow mornings 144 chart to compare.

Edited by danm

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2 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

So the 12z UKMO at 144h should of looked like this                            instead the output ended up like :whistling:             BIG DIFFERENCE'S :hi:

image.thumb.png.d36033a2e1ec969dce27a57c5f0fc907.png                                                      UW144-21_lxg0.GIF

Differences yes. Downgrades...no 

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Just now, danm said:

It’s only been 12 hours since that 168 chart wasn’t produced, so I think you’re wrong here. Will need to see tomorrow mornings 144 chart to compare.

Thanks for highlighting that to me, I wasn't sure :pardon:

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