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Model output discussion - into 2018

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UKMO looks ok at 120, 144 will be quite telling

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

Edited by karlos1983

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Ukmo looks very good at 120 hours!!please undercut at 144 hours!!

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gfs-5-108.png?12

The Jet is not Curving back, So the Block will get pushed East / South East.

It is worth noting that the Northern arm of the Jet has a more vertical look to it over iceland.

Edited by frosty ground

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

UKMO not as good as this morning's run - not terrible though but not a trend we want to see.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/en/topkarten.php?map=1&model=ukm&var=1&time=144&run=12&lid=OP&h=0&tr=24&mv=0

A tad more energy in the N arm of the jet for the UKMO.

I suspect that after all this, none of the models will be correct and we'll end up with a middle ground scenario. Unfortunately, a middle ground scenario won't be supportive of the Scandi block that many of us want to see.

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UKMO isn't as good as ECM or GEM but a lot better than GFS. It has also been the most consistent run to run for me so how energy is split on the 144 chart will be interesting

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Day 5 charts

UKMO/GEM/GFS(Eventually)

UW120-21.GIF?03-17   gem-0-120.png?12   

The UKMO is pretty close to the GEM at day 5 which turns out very well again. Worth noting that todays 12z UKMO is better than yesterdays day 6 chart the same model.

Edited by Captain Shortwave

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UKMO 144

UKMOPNH12_144_1.png

GFS appears stuck on +108 

Edited by karlos1983

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must be meteociel issue, fine on wetterz

GFSOPNH12_138_1.png

depending on ones definition of fine that is :rofl:

Edited by karlos1983

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4 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

UKMO 144

UKMOPNH12_144_1.png

Thats yesterdays 

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h850t850eu.png hgt300.png

At this stage the one key gain is that trough centred over the France-Italy border. This has not been that far east or well defined on previous runs, and serves as a pedestal on which the Scandi High can rest for a bit. It'd not last very long though if the jet raged over the top - but the angle looks alright on the 12z GFS at this stage. Also good to see the N arm after the split aligned close to due north, though a bit west of north is desired.

If it wasn't for all that relatively mild air pumped into Europe ahead of this setup, it'd be a classic bitterly cold easterly with us all looking ahead to a potential battleground scenario with the Atlantic disrupting against the cold airmass.

h850t850eu.png hgt300.png

A few frames later and it's so very poised... but you know what, the angle looks good. As I said before though - a long road to getting some proper cold in due to the earlier more SE angle of the jet through Scandinavia.

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Just now, Banbury said:

Thats yesterdays 

no, today is Wednesday! it shows chart for next Tuesday 

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Cracking GEM again

GEM.thumb.png.6b4815267864916a7c83881dfa7903a9.png

UKMO is okay but not as good as this mornings run. GFS continuing not to budge.

I do get a horrible feeling this is the beginning of the climbdown.

Edited by Danny*

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1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

The block holds but is not under cut so we have low to West and high in the east.

The UK gets under the Atlantic influence and the Scandi high gradually gets pushed away. Earlier runs has the high controlling our weather with an easterly flow till the end.

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Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade.

UKMO, GEM, ICON all worse than their previous runs. GFS about the same to day 6.

Edited by mulzy

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When people discuss  model, please specify which model you re talking about

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade.

UKMO, GEM, ICON and GFS all worse than heir previous runs.

I'd say the GFS is an improvement but I agree that the other models and in particular the ICON and the UKMO are worse this afternoon.

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3 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Cracking GEM again

GEM.thumb.png.6b4815267864916a7c83881dfa7903a9.png

It's always day 7/8+ with the GEM, the models are well and truly dangling the carrot at the moment

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade.

UKMO, GEM, ICON and GFS all worse than heir previous runs.

gemnh-0-168.png?12 gemnh-0-240.png?12

GEM, really? Might want to check that again?

hgt300.pnghgt300.png

As for GFS, it's not much I know but here we see a  better NNW-angled curve to the jet from N. Europe. Frankly it's a prime undercutting setup and if GFS doesn't go for it properly, well I reckon that's down to model shortfalls more than anything else.

 

Generally I suspect we are chasing a chilly high scenario as a means of riding out the next thrust from the west (as the MJO traverses phases 4-5) by a continued split jet diverting the westerlies to the N and S of us.

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UKMO and GEM are still far better than I expected from this cold spell so I’m still happy, hopefully another robust ECM - a few days ago we weren’t looking at anything as cold as what’s now forecast so people should be happy with that!!

GEM is in fact v good still

Edited by Ali1977

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4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Everyone knew this was going to be a roller-coaster but for now, the 12z NWP output is a considerable downgrade.

UKMO, GEM, ICON all worse than their previous runs. GFS about the same to day 6.

I'm sending out an SOS to Steve murr to tell us everything will be alright!:D:help:

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Hardly crud is it?

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisionsUKMO

gem-0-168.png?12GEM

gfs-0-120.png?12GFS  better block 12z and lower heights to the south

gfs-0-126.png?606z

Edited by winterof79

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UKMO 144 has cold air in place-

And i'm sure it will show the Atlantic undercutting thereafer- 

GFS is dreadful, again.

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Can't get excited as the uppers look terrible on UKMO anything from the west looks like rain and that's only chance for us out west to get snow from this Easterly i really hope the uppers improve.

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