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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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2 hours ago, carinthian said:

GFS would seem like that. It has support of some sorts with the US Navy model outputs. Clearly post 144t  these two models seem to be struggling to evolve the increasing cold  block over NW Europe this weekend. Endless progressive runs now  to advance some form of trough distruption towards UK from a more zonal type but the prognosis does not look right me in the period 144-210t.  GFS certainly grinding this one out going down screaming and shouting . If it wins out will be like goal of the decade !

C

The amazing stand off from GFS continues with this latest run as early as 144t. Digging its heel in with a set of runs that seemingly produce a very unlikely prognosis. Have never seen a difference as wide as this at 144t compared to ECM. Sure our experts will be baffled as well. Speaking to them soon and will report back with their analysis . This run sends shock waves into the heart of Euroland with African melt down in the Eastern Alps and makes me very nervous over here anyway. Think its time for a break and a bit of fresh air.

C

Edited by carinthian

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Isn' it possible that ECM, GEM is over doing the blocking whilst GFS is being to progressive with the Atlantic there for we end up somewhere between. UKMO might be the model to follow from now until we see better agreement.

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2 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Isn' it possible that ECM, GEM is over doing the blocking whilst GFS is being to progressive with the Atlantic there for we end up somewhere between. UKMO might be the model to follow from now until we see better agreement.

Sounds about right to me. Maybe something in between, think tonights runs will be crucial  to see where we are going with this.

 C

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4 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Isn' it possible that ECM, GEM is over doing the blocking whilst GFS is being to progressive with the Atlantic there for we end up somewhere between. UKMO might be the model to follow from now until we see better agreement.

UKMO has come off the fence somewhat anyway, much more closely aligned to ECM/GEM now.

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5 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

Isn' it possible that ECM, GEM is over doing the blocking whilst GFS is being to progressive with the Atlantic there for we end up somewhere between. UKMO might be the model to follow from now until we see better agreement.

Maybe but we don't know what UKMO is doing after T144 (or do we?) since at that stage it's identical to GEM and ECM.

UKMO fax charts look tasty by the way.

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T192 clusters - all have some sort of ridge to the NE, the majority would possibly see it merge with heights to the SE eventually (bit of guesswork needed here) - the op run cluster has similarities with one minor cluster - so not an outlier but not the preferred option after D8 in the extent of its blocking.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010300_192.

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1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

T192 clusters - all have some sort of ridge to the NE, the majority would possibly see it merge with heights to the SE eventually (bit of guesswork needed here) - the op run cluster has similarities with one minor cluster - so not an outlier but not the preferred option after D8 in the extent of its blocking.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010300_192.

This still screams battleground to me rather than big convective -10c uppers Easterly.

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7 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

someone posted it a couple of pages back, very under-cutty 

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png&key=804fa6c277faa705c026143759ef293d0b5a5a4d82b8e09e69e26814f4611c3e

Looks plausible but without any upper air temp profile to view, its hard to say how potent any undercut will be, but looks to be heading along the ECM output at that time span for the time being/

C

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

This still screams battleground to me rather than big convective -10c uppers Easterly.

Yeah, it doesn’t look ok like you can tap into any real Siberian air mass with these clusters!! 

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah, it doesn’t look ok like you can tap into any real Siberian air mass with these clusters!! 

Yes - of course the battleground could get the majority of the country with 10 inches of snow and the Easterly might only get the country a few grains of snow in the SE (no accumulations) but obviously you wont be able to retrospectively look at both scenarios.

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1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Yeah, it doesn’t look ok like you can tap into any real Siberian air mass with these clusters!! 

Tbf, it’s way too early to make this judgment, especially as the Icelandic clusters don’t even show all of Scandinavia, never mind w Russia. 

Noting a trend from the latest eps to drive less Euro troughing (which would mean less CAA ) but with so many clusters it’s still a case of watching and waiting although the broad pattern is settling down nicely with the ec op still leading the way along with the GEM. Still think we haven’t yet seen an op throw out the correct evolution days 5 to 8.

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Day 5 mean comparison, fairly similar actually.. GEFS insistent on sending more energy over though.

IMG_8759.PNG

IMG_8760.PNG

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But ^^ 06z mean V 00z mean shows more & more Easterly component - 126/132

40EE55D0-471A-43D5-911A-2209562AD74A.thumb.png.783928cb195dce7e2cf960fc7b3a1c6d.png0F3FC8B0-66C5-4329-8A5C-05979DBDE585.thumb.png.14de5a2d13d2eac929954fd808646a07.png

Note the mean of the eastern end of the block less saggy = more recarving SW

Edited by Steve Murr

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A lot of the GEFS Purbs at 144 look like they will undercut. 

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gens-1-3-144.png
Ensemble 1 shows what we want from the Jet, Curved back South West.
gens-1-1-144.png

Edited by frosty ground

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Last one from me

156 mean - first GFS mean to show a parcel of breakaway energy moving SE splitting off the main flow

just SW of UK

2AF67968-C5FA-4DA6-83DD-A6D041A14763.thumb.png.2223b8904bf970b5ea8a7126034b6694.png

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53 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

someone posted it a couple of pages back, very under-cutty 

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png&key=804fa6c277faa705c026143759ef293d0b5a5a4d82b8e09e69e26814f4611c3e

The midlands will get plastered 😐

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1 minute ago, Ramp said:

The midlands will get plastered 😐

I'd be surprised if anywhere away from the Channel Islands saw any precip from that, more likely to miss the UK, if that indeed verified.

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'd be surprised if anywhere away from the Channel Islands saw any precip from that, more likely to miss the UK, if that indeed verified.

Agreed! But I wouldn't mind if a proper cold easterly followed. :D

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I don't think the GFS can override the La Nina pattern, and is purely going with it.

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11 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I'd be surprised if anywhere away from the Channel Islands saw any precip from that, more likely to miss the UK, if that indeed verified.

Sorry I should have posted this in my thread.

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6 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

It goes look strange but look at that blast of WAA heading up from the Atlantic, could reinstate some form of Scandy high , and should keep that low pressure in the MED.

That' fantastic. We are stuck in very cold easterly if that happens. High over the top keeping the low to the south stuck. Could get dry though. But no thaw at all.

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8 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I don't think the GFS can override the La Nina pattern, and is purely going with it.

Neither GFS nor any other synoptic model is aware of such a thing.

All set off with the basic observations at the set time of, 00, 06, 12, 18 and are then run out to the end time of the particular model using complex mathematics on the main physics used in meteorology. No other input as far as I know.

Not the same with climat models.

this link has useful information

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/modelling-systems/unified-model/weather-forecasting

 

Edited by johnholmes

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