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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Better Trough disruption attempt on the 06z compared to the 00z

    gfsnh-0-96.png?6gfsnh-0-102.png?0

    Could be a good shout Steve M 

    EDIT: looks like too much energy going over the top now, but earlier on looks to have moved a tad more towards the euros.. It's coming with it's tail between it's legs by the looks of it, very slowly!

    Edited by karlos1983
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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Much better shaped and positioned HP at t120.  Only slight but makes a good difference for cold and could make big difference down the line  

    karl look at the trough just off coast of Norway on 06z.  Much better alignment on the HP

     

     

    alas it then goes the same way....

     

    BFTP

    Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    What is more important is,did we get a clean ejeculation of the Short wave at 96z from Iceland Nick Sussex?:crazy:

    gfsnh-0-90.png?6 Think so

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    What is more important is,did we get a clean ejeculation of the Short wave at 96z from Iceland Nick Sussex?:crazy:

    We did more like the ecm and ukmo!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Small changes here and there but to me the GFS is sticking to its guns. It hasn't significantly moved to the Euros...

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    What is more important is,did we get a clean ejeculation of the Short wave at 96z from Iceland Nick Sussex?:crazy:

    we sure did

    image.thumb.png.b765b51452acd67f4f5d3f6bcabc3418.png

    That's a big step in my book!

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    I’ve got a feeling GFS will undercut like the GEM this run....

    better to 84...

    Still to much energy going over the top 114hr not this run early on anyhow.

    Screenshot_20180103-100510.png

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

    What is more important is,did we get a clean ejeculation of the Short wave at 96z from Iceland Nick Sussex?:crazy:

    Very naughty ! :D

    Better at least it’s now trying to do that although still slower and not quite as good but it’s a start at least .

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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Am gona stick my neck out here and say by the 12z the gfs is gona look like the ukmo or ecm!!you can tell it doing it in the early timeframes!!you feel its only a matter of time before it joins the euros!!

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    Not 100% move but another 5% towards the ECM

    note the 138 v 144 jet

    3F17C82D-4FD8-40A4-91A4-3FD039FF1842.thumb.png.98142e93112d7adcb2acde66f3895dbf.png7D1CC808-A9AB-43E0-9DCB-BB290AA8D905.thumb.png.ca5758a0438f4bb18bd8658b9d568b3f.png

     

    look ok at the 06z on the left wind barbs 

    note the change in direction-

    Its coming ..... maybe not 06z but the change is on its way - 4th run on the trot -

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham

    Look at what the GEM is doing to the JET at @144 (Curving back the northern arm sending cold towards the UK and supporting the Block. 
    gem-5-144.png?00
    The GFS on the other hand @138 is simply splitting the Jet and sending both the cold and the block to the east.

    gfs-5-138.png?6

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    1 minute ago, shaky said:

    Am gona stick my neck out here and say by the 12z the gfs is gona look like the ukmo or ecm!!you can tell it doing it in the early timeframes!!you feel its only a matter of time before it joins the euros!!

    Don't think so.

    You are unlikely to see the GFS suddenly switch to the ECM/UKMO but like Steve M says tiny little steps towards. For example note SW,lys into Ireland on the 0Z which then become S,lys on the 06Z.

    GFSOPEU00_156_1.pngGFSOPEU06_150_1.png

    What is basically happening is the GFS is slowly realising that it needs to take the energy SE rather than NE. This in my opinion is a programming flaw of the GFS.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    Look at what the GEM is doing to the JET at @144 (Curving back the northern arm sending cold towards the UK and supporting the Block. 
    gem-5-144.png?00
    The GFS on the other hand @138 is simply splitting the Jet and sending both the cold and the block to the east.

    gfs-5-138.png?6

    True, but look at its progression from the 00z moving more towards the GEM on the 06z.

    gfs-5-138.png?0

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    & now @156 the jet even more in evident -

    Northern arm beginning to fail

    06z first 00z second

    core of the wind barbs west of Spain are SE - 00z was NE

    06BA6BA9-D88A-41B6-B5DD-97C33C588763.thumb.png.7b1124756a52e2161eb2a560448cf351.png4975C0AB-AFF7-487C-8A2E-6C983E687813.thumb.png.7cea997e938fef6ddf1c3bdecd32b5fe.png

     

    Edited by Steve Murr
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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .

    The GFS may, of course, be right but it does have a bad habit of over-developing Atlantic lows. I think by now we all know that the one showing here at T144 is ridiculous.

    5a4cae321a386_ScreenShot2018-01-03at10_16_58.thumb.png.98f0d102e454161417abfc6c988016fe.png

    It's not surprising the easterly block is being blown off course if the GFS is suggesting those deep mini hurricanes are hurtling our way. 

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    9 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Am gona stick my neck out here and say by the 12z the gfs is gona look like the ukmo or ecm!!you can tell it doing it in the early timeframes!!you feel its only a matter of time before it joins the euros!!

    I'd agree if there was any ensemble support but we've yet to see that. 

    I do think this is going the way of the Europeans, but that could be wishcasting. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, West is Best said:

    I'd agree if there was any ensemble support but we've yet to see that. 

    I do think this is going the way of the Europeans, but that could be wishcasting. 

    What I would say, is that until such time the GFS stops moving towards the Euro's in the short term, with every run, we have to presume it's wrong for now, how can it even have a chance of being correct when it keeps shifting within the semi reliable (not saying you have, just highlighting), especially when the ECM, UKMO and GEM appear to be on the same page or thereabouts. Not to say they are correct either, but if you were to take a punt it would have to favour a blend of those 3 over the GFS as it stands. 

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Norway
  • Location: Norway

    i think we wait to models runs in the coming weekend.....at this time to many dont knows at of course strato is still there ......GEM has the best 

    678.png

    76.png

    Edited by Dennis
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    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    So there’s your 06z @192

    Just a small swing we now have an undercut- That’s from 4 runs going from nothing to this - 

    I mentioned yesterday GFS is usually 2-3 days behind the ECM - today is day 2.

    3D38AEB7-1052-4737-BAD3-5E8CA8CA8C62.thumb.png.ba72a250241b09aabcda56e7556bedaa.png

    Jesus!!!!thats a HUUUUUUUGEEE change at 192!!its weird cos you would expect it to look like the ecm and ukmo earlier on with the way the above chart looks!!why is that the case steve!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Yes I must admit even deep FI where the Atlantic is progged to come back in has looked a fair bit less zonal on the last few GFS runs.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

    Anyone got the UKMO T168 chart? That would be interesting.

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, The PIT said:

    Anyone got the UKMO T168 chart? That would be interesting.

    someone posted it a couple of pages back, very under-cutty 

    ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png&key=804fa6c277faa705c026143759ef293d0b5a5a4d82b8e09e69e26814f4611c3e

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Just now, The PIT said:

    Anyone got the UKMO T168 chart? That would be interesting.

    Page before - same as GEM/ECM

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