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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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Better Trough disruption attempt on the 06z compared to the 00z

gfsnh-0-96.png?6gfsnh-0-102.png?0

Could be a good shout Steve M 

EDIT: looks like too much energy going over the top now, but earlier on looks to have moved a tad more towards the euros.. It's coming with it's tail between it's legs by the looks of it, very slowly!

Edited by karlos1983

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Much better shaped and positioned HP at t120.  Only slight but makes a good difference for cold and could make big difference down the line  

karl look at the trough just off coast of Norway on 06z.  Much better alignment on the HP

 

 

alas it then goes the same way....

 

BFTP

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST

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What is more important is,did we get a clean ejeculation of the Short wave at 96z from Iceland Nick Sussex?:crazy:

gfsnh-0-90.png?6 Think so

Edited by winterof79

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3 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What is more important is,did we get a clean ejeculation of the Short wave at 96z from Iceland Nick Sussex?:crazy:

We did more like the ecm and ukmo!!

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Small changes here and there but to me the GFS is sticking to its guns. It hasn't significantly moved to the Euros...

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2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

What is more important is,did we get a clean ejeculation of the Short wave at 96z from Iceland Nick Sussex?:crazy:

we sure did

image.thumb.png.b765b51452acd67f4f5d3f6bcabc3418.png

That's a big step in my book!

Edited by karlos1983

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gfs-5-126.png?6

not gonna happen on this Run, The Jet is heading south East and not curving back south west around the high!

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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I’ve got a feeling GFS will undercut like the GEM this run....

better to 84...

Still to much energy going over the top 114hr not this run early on anyhow.

Screenshot_20180103-100510.png

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

What is more important is,did we get a clean ejeculation of the Short wave at 96z from Iceland Nick Sussex?:crazy:

Very naughty ! :D

Better at least it’s now trying to do that although still slower and not quite as good but it’s a start at least .

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Am gona stick my neck out here and say by the 12z the gfs is gona look like the ukmo or ecm!!you can tell it doing it in the early timeframes!!you feel its only a matter of time before it joins the euros!!

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Not 100% move but another 5% towards the ECM

note the 138 v 144 jet

3F17C82D-4FD8-40A4-91A4-3FD039FF1842.thumb.png.98142e93112d7adcb2acde66f3895dbf.png7D1CC808-A9AB-43E0-9DCB-BB290AA8D905.thumb.png.ca5758a0438f4bb18bd8658b9d568b3f.png

 

look ok at the 06z on the left wind barbs 

note the change in direction-

Its coming ..... maybe not 06z but the change is on its way - 4th run on the trot -

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Look at what the GEM is doing to the JET at @144 (Curving back the northern arm sending cold towards the UK and supporting the Block. 
gem-5-144.png?00
The GFS on the other hand @138 is simply splitting the Jet and sending both the cold and the block to the east.

gfs-5-138.png?6

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Am gona stick my neck out here and say by the 12z the gfs is gona look like the ukmo or ecm!!you can tell it doing it in the early timeframes!!you feel its only a matter of time before it joins the euros!!

Don't think so.

You are unlikely to see the GFS suddenly switch to the ECM/UKMO but like Steve M says tiny little steps towards. For example note SW,lys into Ireland on the 0Z which then become S,lys on the 06Z.

GFSOPEU00_156_1.pngGFSOPEU06_150_1.png

What is basically happening is the GFS is slowly realising that it needs to take the energy SE rather than NE. This in my opinion is a programming flaw of the GFS.

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2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Look at what the GEM is doing to the JET at @144 (Curving back the northern arm sending cold towards the UK and supporting the Block. 
gem-5-144.png?00
The GFS on the other hand @138 is simply splitting the Jet and sending both the cold and the block to the east.

gfs-5-138.png?6

True, but look at its progression from the 00z moving more towards the GEM on the 06z.

gfs-5-138.png?0

Edited by karlos1983

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& now @156 the jet even more in evident -

Northern arm beginning to fail

06z first 00z second

core of the wind barbs west of Spain are SE - 00z was NE

06BA6BA9-D88A-41B6-B5DD-97C33C588763.thumb.png.7b1124756a52e2161eb2a560448cf351.png4975C0AB-AFF7-487C-8A2E-6C983E687813.thumb.png.7cea997e938fef6ddf1c3bdecd32b5fe.png

 

Edited by Steve Murr

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The GFS may, of course, be right but it does have a bad habit of over-developing Atlantic lows. I think by now we all know that the one showing here at T144 is ridiculous.

5a4cae321a386_ScreenShot2018-01-03at10_16_58.thumb.png.98f0d102e454161417abfc6c988016fe.png

It's not surprising the easterly block is being blown off course if the GFS is suggesting those deep mini hurricanes are hurtling our way. 

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9 minutes ago, shaky said:

Am gona stick my neck out here and say by the 12z the gfs is gona look like the ukmo or ecm!!you can tell it doing it in the early timeframes!!you feel its only a matter of time before it joins the euros!!

I'd agree if there was any ensemble support but we've yet to see that. 

I do think this is going the way of the Europeans, but that could be wishcasting. 

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3 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I'd agree if there was any ensemble support but we've yet to see that. 

I do think this is going the way of the Europeans, but that could be wishcasting. 

What I would say, is that until such time the GFS stops moving towards the Euro's in the short term, with every run, we have to presume it's wrong for now, how can it even have a chance of being correct when it keeps shifting within the semi reliable (not saying you have, just highlighting), especially when the ECM, UKMO and GEM appear to be on the same page or thereabouts. Not to say they are correct either, but if you were to take a punt it would have to favour a blend of those 3 over the GFS as it stands. 

Edited by karlos1983

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i think we wait to models runs in the coming weekend.....at this time to many dont knows at of course strato is still there ......GEM has the best 

678.png

76.png

Edited by Dennis

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4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So there’s your 06z @192

Just a small swing we now have an undercut- That’s from 4 runs going from nothing to this - 

I mentioned yesterday GFS is usually 2-3 days behind the ECM - today is day 2.

3D38AEB7-1052-4737-BAD3-5E8CA8CA8C62.thumb.png.ba72a250241b09aabcda56e7556bedaa.png

Jesus!!!!thats a HUUUUUUUGEEE change at 192!!its weird cos you would expect it to look like the ecm and ukmo earlier on with the way the above chart looks!!why is that the case steve!!

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Yes I must admit even deep FI where the Atlantic is progged to come back in has looked a fair bit less zonal on the last few GFS runs.

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Anyone got the UKMO T168 chart? That would be interesting.

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Just now, The PIT said:

Anyone got the UKMO T168 chart? That would be interesting.

Page before - same as GEM/ECM

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Just now, The PIT said:

Anyone got the UKMO T168 chart? That would be interesting.

someone posted it a couple of pages back, very under-cutty 

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fcst.gentracker.png&key=804fa6c277faa705c026143759ef293d0b5a5a4d82b8e09e69e26814f4611c3e

Edited by karlos1983

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