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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

Posted Images

Got to love the gem model this morning with as Steve said southeast England up to northeast England ground to a halt in just over a weeks time with over 24 hours of snow. Anything is possible I suppose.

I must admit to not looking forward to the model runs this morning. But with a much better run from the UKMO model, consistency from the ECM  and small incremental steps from the GFS towards the other two models, confidence has grown towards perhaps a more potent and longer lasting cold, very cold spell of weather. There is not much room for error though with the orientation of the high being critical and we do not want to see anymore corrections south of the ridge before it amplifies north. One small niggle is that after the initial cold blast we are looking at post t144 for the cold to return which is moving beyond the reliable time frame, although there will of course be surface cold.

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At the risk of upsetting met office fans (hopefully not as touchy as gfs fans ?) but I hope they do not come on board until we are under t72 ,  Exeter coming on board is always the tipping point of when it can go t**s up.

 

Edited by Ramp
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I'm wondering how a model like the GFS with such a 'progressive bias' has nonetheless over the years produced such an array of awesome  looking FI easterlies which, of course, have never come to pass?

I live in hope but if I could choose to have 2 out of the three big models on my side, I would want one of them to be the GFS

Edited by Timmytour
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   On 17/12/2017 at 23:02,  BLAST FROM THE PAST said: 

We seem to have reverted to Atlantic influence to take hold on the build up to Christmas.  The cold set up has receded and I think we will now see a not so cold Xmas with us looking west.  So for me as we were on the winter LRF and I look to 2nd week of Jan for next cold spell ( mustn’t get too excited if little spells of cold come again like recently)..  It doesn’t mean uninteresting weather but mobile up and down to see this year out.

 

BFTP

As we were, cold weather around but mobile and transitory so happy with how we go.

 

Pretty lively is a term to use over the next week to 10 days.  Interesting that HLB is anticipated to be off the table by many....I totally concur..  Next proper cold hit timed for 7th onwards, very deep LP/ segment of displaced PV.....this will be over us and then move SSE bringing polar air surging south on N the NE’ly and then E’ly....this will be a very intense affair and some very hazardous wintry weather with storm conditions to be had.  These type of set ups bring 5-7 days of volatile cold weather before ‘west to east’’ regime returns to remove the coldest air.  Models hinting at this now.

 

BFTP

 

 

 

As you can see by my ‘winter hopes thread’ ramblings I seem to be in between ECM/ GEM/ UKMO and GFS.  For me GFS is way too quick and I lean very much more towards the others as I maintain that a widespread wintry event is coming in the correct timescale.  However, I’m also thinking about the easterly lock out, I’m certainly thinking that my LRF of 10-12 days cold spell more likely than the 5-7 update (due to how quickly things ran out of steam in Dec so I erred on side of caution) as the push from the west potentially to be held at bay for longer.  It’s up for grabs, not the cold spell itself but the longevity....can’t discount either but longevity gaining more momentum...at this stage.

 

BFTP

 

 

 

 

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
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3 minutes ago, carinthian said:

OK, cold lover, this is the chart of the day so far. I know its day 9 but how good does that look with real cold Arctic Continental air mass advection into Blighty.

 C

ECMOPEU00_216_2.png

Whats your weather portal showing for this weekend mate!!any meaning full snowfall across england or the uk as a whole!!

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Happy with this morning’s runs. The GFS almost NEVER backtracks in one foul swoop, not even over a day. It’s almost always does a slow tippy toe back to the Euros. Hoping nobody would notice?? And the GFS00z is, clearly, another small step towards the Euros.

I don’t get the obsession with needing to drag in frigid cold uppers righ from the start. The airmass and dew points (on the Euros / GEM) will likely be conducive to heavy snow showers in at lot of places going into next week. Fronts and features are likely to form and run in on the base of the block. Plenty of Atlantic energy undercutting will stop it sinking and thereafter there is EVERY chance of pulling in some proper cold for a continuation and more fun and games.

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29 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

It does however there is a decent cluster with it 

The Knmi (dutch meteorologic service) commentary on EC output says after next weekend about half of the members return to a more zonal pattern and the other half continue with an easterly flow

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12 minutes ago, shaky said:

Whats your weather portal showing for this weekend mate!!any meaning full snowfall across england or the uk as a whole!!

Yesterday picture had some snow accumulations (fresh ) Northern Pennines/ Lake District Mountains 20cm in places and up to 5- 10cm in the Peak District. Parts of the Midland showed some accumulations by the end of Saturday of around 1 -2 cm  but no widespread snowfall. Will get an update later this morning.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^ cheers TEITS

Anyome fancy posting the GFS ensembles from run to run for London & day Glasgow-

Im going to do the mean chart traversing the timeline- any volunteers to do the 850 graph side by side each run- nows a good time to start at they will be at the max values for 168-192...

I would do it but you cant get the last run can you - there's no archive.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would do it but you cant get the last run can you - there's no archive.

You have to take a screenshot on your phone keep the run time in the pic !

Edited by Steve Murr
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UKMO T168

ukm2.2018011000.168.lant.troplant.prp.fc

 

Edit: I see WinterOf79 got there before me.

Atlantic trough ejecting a low under the block.

Edited by Yarmy
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6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

You have to take a screenshot on your phone keep the run time in the pic !

I haven't got internet on phone but what I will do is post the 0z's now and then just copy them when the 6z's come out, there isn't a Glasgow so I will do somewhere near.

 

Highlands                                                         London.

t850Highland.pngt850London.png

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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2 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

And Iv literally just read that easterlies can disappear even at T72 @TEITS what strange curious beasts these are ! No wonder everyone’s very cautious ! This is gripping stuff because the reward could be great ( from a cold loving perspective) 

Yep. Unlike a Northerly, the models always struggle with these elusive little swines, seemingly ALWAYS tormenting us right to the very end ?. I think the 72 hour mark is generous as well, I’d want to see it well inside 60 before popping any corks.

Someone please tell me I’m wrong, but in the 10 odd years I’ve been here, I don’t remember one Easterly going smoothly (with many falling at the final hurdle as well!).

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I haven’t had a chance to check how the ECM Op run fits within its suite but if the Op is well supported, given the timeframe and higher resolution of the ECM model vs the lower resolution of the GFS you’d have to favour the ECM outcome. The GFS is good at identifying major pattern changes but it has always struggled when dealing with the details i.e. small scale features such as shortwaves.

Given how sensitive the weather in the UK is to these minor features and the knock-on effect during major changes, you would think the higher resolution models have a better handle on this. Access to the global MORGREPS would help but from memory the ECM is still run at a higher resolution when it comes to the medium range. As others have noted, the UKMO is also in support and historically this model is very conservative.  

Personally and longer term I’m looking for a ridge to extend into Greenland after the initial easterly - that would be the classical evolution. Anyway eyes down on the 06z...   

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We have been here many times before!  Good luck with this Easterly, I’ve got a good feeling about this winter.  It’s been dire for cold lovers over the last few years. Let’s get that undercut.  Love the post Steve Murr, Nick & Nick.  Keep up the good work - it’s gonna be a rollercoaster.

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