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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Changes on the arpeege already at just 60 hours!!low pressure that was slightly deeper on the 12z near south west england has virtually dissapeared!!should help with more of a cold push from the north east!!

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    This was the ecm 12z on the 31/12/17 t144

    ECH1-144.GIF?12

    and this is todays ecm  at t96

    ECH1-96.GIF?02-0

    Notice how the ridge of high pressure is further south even on the ecm and if this continues by the time it ridges north it may be to far south and there will not be any cold uppers to tap into. Not looking forward to the mornings charts.

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    GFS 234 V 240

    note how the signal is now stronger for a Scandi high with a bit of an undercut...

    07794BF9-6D62-4162-83CC-2034B29A97AB.thumb.png.7fe72ab93039e937835272f675190862.pngD557E55B-C9BE-45CB-A3EC-63770632AC12.thumb.png.3a0159fdd95b735c959dd6d64ec1e549.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    204 V 210 You will note more of a scandi block morphing back west- 

    only another 34 runs of moving to go

    18z first

    453BE482-EA43-4985-AB9A-404481912322.thumb.png.a875c8168bb0f9dfca9b3c865c5ae9e9.png8B433B17-757F-4416-B391-3C429890EC78.thumb.png.3ecee83ad26530da75c5acdf123e714c.png

    Some energy underneath but minimal

    lets say 85/15 upwards / under

    next run becomes 82/18 then 79/21 

    in 10 runs time that will be 60/40 & the GFS will look totally different ( around 168 )

    I believe it will..

    The stretch of heights east'iceland/through to top set scandinavia-surely being underplayed via gfs 12z/18z!..

    Isobar-forming is good for expansion of movement.

    But the gfs is'nt having it...

    Should relax its tightening, on view soon..!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    7 minutes ago, Mucka said:

    You are spot on IMO.

    Any assumption that a particular model has this nailed is based on personal preference for a particular model. 

    I read Steve's post earlier and the bias within the models he describes within GFS is fair comment (though all models have had many upgrades over the last 13 years), but perhaps we are only remembering the GFS bias and not the ECM bias?

    Yes GFS is likely too progressive but how does that make ECM any more likely to be correct? It has its own biases.

    How often do we see a middle ground solution where one model shows a Winter wonderland and the other Westerlies?

    I think we all have short selective memories to a point and our own inherent bias toward wishing for cold and snow.

    That doesn't mean ECM won't be proved correct and Steve vindicated but it could just as easily go the other way as far as I can tell. 

    UKMO is probably the best guide at the moment as that sits somewhere in the middle.

    ECM's bias was over amplification of Scandi heights? Something along them lines. Also happens to be the GFS weakest where it will just barrel the Jet through.

    I agree UKMO is best bet, it's the one I will watching tomorrow.

    Edited by SN0WM4N
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    Posted
  • Location: Banbury
  • Location: Banbury
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS 234 V 240

    note how the signal is now stronger for a Scandi high with a bit of an undercut...

    07794BF9-6D62-4162-83CC-2034B29A97AB.thumb.png.7fe72ab93039e937835272f675190862.pngD557E55B-C9BE-45CB-A3EC-63770632AC12.thumb.png.3a0159fdd95b735c959dd6d64ec1e549.png

     

    Position now much better than the 12z 

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    8 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    GFS 234 V 240

    note how the signal is now stronger for a Scandi high with a bit of an undercut...

    07794BF9-6D62-4162-83CC-2034B29A97AB.thumb.png.7fe72ab93039e937835272f675190862.pngD557E55B-C9BE-45CB-A3EC-63770632AC12.thumb.png.3a0159fdd95b735c959dd6d64ec1e549.png

     

    We are chasing now Steve but heights are better on this run

    second bite..

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

    ECM's bias was over amplification of Scandi heights? Something along them lines. Also happens to be the GFS weakest where it will just barrel the Jet through.

    I agree UKMO is best bet, it's the one I will watching tomorrow.

    Ecm is bias-of a small%ag, 

    And thats of atlantic amp-..

    Not eastern/north east.

    Its a tight format that is of a much,smaller degree than the gfs bias(corrected/new data or otherwise)

    Of mobile atlantic flowing.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

    ECM's bias was over amplification of Scandi heights? Something along them lines. Also happens to be the GFS weakest where it will just barrel the Jet through.

    I agree UKMO is best bit it's the one I will watching tomorrow.

    Ecm used to over amplify - full stop. Since its upgrade autumn 2016, the bias to our west seems to have moderated but we haven't tested Scandinavia apart from last Jan (illustrated earlier by mwb). 

    Note that the eps clusters have the op with only 10% support in the mid term (although there are six clusters ). In the 8/10 day period the clusters reduce markedly and the ridge to the north more than northeast has good support. this has a fair way to go yet and I doubt we have seen the correct solution. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    JMA just out, joining the ECM/GEM party.:D

    J180-21.gif

    J204-21.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
    13 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Well maybe i'm reading them wrong but the 120 looks hideous..

    I think the fax looks ok. The high is beginning to ridge north/north east. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers but not too hot and colder winters with frost and snow
  • Location: Locksbottom,kent 92m asl(310ft)

    As others have said i think we will have a blend of GFS/ECM and the UKMO wont be far of the mark come the weekends weather when it will turn colder but not desperately cold like GEM/ECM is showing.Thereafter the next search for cold/colder weather will begin and Slidergate III may be the topic of conversation.Would love ECM/GEM to be right for weekend prognosis but lets be realistic the UKMO are not really on board and until they start issuing weather warnings re snow i will just enjoy following the forum which is the best bar none.These are just my views and based predominently on watching models over the last 5 years and how these scenarios pan out.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    13 minutes ago, comet said:

    This was the ecm 12z on the 31/12/17 t144

    ECH1-144.GIF?12

    and this is todays ecm  at t96

    ECH1-96.GIF?02-0

    Notice how the ridge of high pressure is further south even on the ecm and if this continues by the time it ridges north it may be to far south and there will not be any cold uppers to tap into. Not looking forward to the mornings charts.

    You mean the shortwave that helps drag the cold east later is over iceland now

    Edited by frosty ground
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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    The GFS control displaying the same levels of fail & correction as the OP

    this is at 66/72 18z/12z

    not sure how anyone can give any credibility to this model ( in this scenario ) whatsoever 

    EBC0D66F-5BA7-4370-A08E-8F98C638C6AC.thumb.png.7b51818c4e6bff9873bf5b0da3908f88.pngB62635C0-9DE9-4FF2-8854-090AE414B2BF.thumb.png.a618478ef7fd65d1f2c1014af116be80.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    The ens on this one will be quite telling.

    18z ...-gfs-.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Ecm used to over amplify - full stop. Since its upgrade autumn 2016, the bias to our west seems to have moderated but we haven't tested Scandinavia apart from last Jan (illustrated earlier by mwb). 

    Note that the eps clusters have the op with only 10% support in the mid term (although there are six clusters ). In the 8/10 day period the clusters reduce markedly and the ridge to the north more than northeast has good support. this has a fair way to go yet and I doubt we have seen the correct solution. 

    Thanks for the update. It does seem that the GFS has picked up the over amplification of heights in the Atlantic/Greenland area. Anyway my point still stands difficult situation to be and one that is difficult to forecast for the masses. 

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
    Just now, tight isobar said:

    The ens on this one will be quite telling.

    18z ...-gfs-.

    The 78 mean is a lot better than the 84 12z

    although that’s probably by luck more than skill 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    The 78 mean is a lot better than the 84 12z

    although that’s probably by luck more than skill 

    Steve if we end up with a halfway house, will you say that the ECM is crap and how can you give any credibility to a model that has consistently thrown out phantom Easterlies over the last 7 years and none since 2013 has actually verified.

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    The 78 mean is a lot better than the 84 12z

    although that’s probably by luck more than skill 

    Im of the reckoning, the 18z will have more members on the dip?!!.

    We'll wait and see?,!..

    MT8_London_ens.pngtodays 12z...

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    ENS at 102 sticking with the Op, surely a backtrack from the next ECM and GEM - big differences at such short range. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    Just now, Ali1977 said:

    ENS at 102 sticking with the Op, surely a backtrack from the next ECM and GEM - big differences at such short range. 

    May I ask why it has to be ECM?

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