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Model output discussion - into 2018


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43 minutes ago, Jason M said:

ECM is a decent easterly. Maybe a 6.5 or 7 out of 10. If it verified I'd imagine there would be some snow in favored spots in the south and east given that pressure is not too high and uppers are -7c or thereabouts at their peak. Given continental air mass and time of year, daytime temps of around zero plus or minus a couples of degrees.

 

You’re a harsh marker I’ll give it a 7.5 / 8 out of 10. Let’s not kid ourselves we haven’t seen anything alike since 2013 I would happily take it the uppers are colder than that. That would allow convection.

32768C73-DA2A-4A0F-95F6-0E7BF77B948E.thumb.png.912b14e31a7d0c4707f1c5db87c2fc33.png

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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14 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Is anyone getting a sense of dejavu with last January?? The ECM op was adamant on an easterly for days - the ECM mean had a source of easterly but never actually took blocking above our latitude - and the op eventually moved towards the mean and further:

here's the op runs from that period:

ECM1-216.GIF?12  ECM1-192.GIF?12  ECM1-168.GIF?12  ECM1-144.GIF?12  ECM1-120.GIF?12

And here's the mean runs (note the difference at the top of Scandinavia):

EDM1-216.GIF?12  EDM1-192.GIF?12  EDM1-168.GIF?12  EDM1-144.GIF?12  EDM1-120.GIF?12

Will be interesting to follow this time! So far...

EDM1-240.GIF?12  EDM1-216.GIF?00  EDM1-216.GIF?02-0 

vs

ECM1-240.GIF?12  ECM1-216.GIF?00  ECM1-216.GIF?12    

I think we can already see two different trends appearing!

 

Lack of low heights to the S/SE last year was what led to our demise. This year is different jet has had no problem heading south so can things go right for once?

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  I may  have a missed it in the loads of posts since the ECM but has there been a post from NOAA, I think nick normally puts them up, just wondering how they see the models doing especially with the storm they have coming up the east coast as I believe it has a knock on effects for us 

cheers

fromey

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32 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Is anyone getting a sense of dejavu with last January?? The ECM op was adamant on an easterly for days - the ECM mean had a source of easterly but never actually took blocking above our latitude - and the op eventually moved towards the mean and further:

here's the op runs from that period:

ECM1-216.GIF?12  ECM1-192.GIF?12  ECM1-168.GIF?12  ECM1-144.GIF?12  ECM1-120.GIF?12

And here's the mean runs (note the difference at the top of Scandinavia):

EDM1-216.GIF?12  EDM1-192.GIF?12  EDM1-168.GIF?12  EDM1-144.GIF?12  EDM1-120.GIF?12

Will be interesting to follow this time! So far...

EDM1-240.GIF?12  EDM1-216.GIF?00  EDM1-216.GIF?02-0 

vs

ECM1-240.GIF?12  ECM1-216.GIF?00  ECM1-216.GIF?12    

I think we can already see two different trends appearing!

 

What a top post. Post of the day imo. This illustrates my post earlier with regards to the ecm ops maybe underestimating the northern arm. It also helps to temper expectations. 

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until the SHAKY model suite throws up a 10 exclamation marks out of ten in one post, then I'm not convinced.....The very fact an earlier post only showed 6 out of 10 should set alarm bells ringing....ignore at your peril :80:

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4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We all expect the the undercut Steve but will it happen?

looking at the 6-10 day from NOAA i posted ^ does show it though:)

Yes modified to the ECM - GFS not even in the mix.

There will be a point in the next 24 hours where the GFS operational suddenly wakes up-

probs 12z tomorrow but 18z may start the ball rolling-

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2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

until the SHAKY model suite throws up a 10 exclamation marks out of ten in one post, then I'm not convinced.....The very fact an earlier post only showed 6 out of 10 should set alarm bells ringing....ignore at your peril :80:

 

!!!!!!!!!! There you go 10:rofl:

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7 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

until the SHAKY model suite throws up a 10 exclamation marks out of ten in one post, then I'm not convinced.....The very fact an earlier post only showed 6 out of 10 should set alarm bells ringing....ignore at your peril :80:

Well lets start with the 18z then buddy!!hope for a better run!!here goes!!!

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16 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

We all expect the the undercut Steve but will it happen?

looking at the 6-10 day from NOAA i posted ^ does show it though:)

Where on earth do you get that idea from if I may ask, please?

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6 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

GFS 18z at 66 vs 72 of ECM.  Looking like a move to the Euro to me?

GFS gfsnh-0-66.png?18  ECM  ECH1-72.GIF?02-0

Wow!!!!massive changes and i assume for the better!!how the heck was it so wrong at such a time frame!makes me laugh sometimes!!hmm nothing from steve murr yet!!making me nervous!!

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3 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Where on earth do you get that idea from if I may ask, please?

To my untrained eye,it looks like -ve heights disrupting SE into Europe,it does look like an undercut to me.

610day_03.thumb.gif.b38f342ce17007a4ee2f2675f60eee7b.gif

if i am wrong then i stand corrected:cc_confused:

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

To my untrained eye,it looks like -ve heights disrupting SE into Europe,it does look like an undercut to me.

610day_03.thumb.gif.b38f342ce17007a4ee2f2675f60eee7b.gif

if i am wrong then i stand corrected:cc_confused:

yes that right

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The 6-10 day chart - you cant really tell because its a mean chart, but any mean of 5 days that has a scandi high and any kind of dig on Atlantic troughing surely could possibly contain an undercut?

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3 minutes ago, tomjwlx said:

heights are not as far north unless i'm blind! haha

It's slower rather than lower. The key time has yet to come out, we are looking for most of the energy to go under as opposed to over.

IMG_0284.PNG

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5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

To my untrained eye,it looks like -ve heights disrupting SE into Europe,it does look like an undercut to me.

610day_03.thumb.gif.b38f342ce17007a4ee2f2675f60eee7b.gif

if i am wrong then i stand corrected:cc_confused:

I think what John is getting at is the green lines indicate the flow and the blue and red indicate anomaly heights. 

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  4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

To my untrained eye,it looks like -ve heights disrupting SE into Europe,it does look like an undercut to me.

610day_03.thumb.gif.b38f342ce17007a4ee2f2675f60eee7b.gif

if i am wrong then i stand corrected:cc_confused:

yes that right

sorry but that is not right, as posted above it is a mean chart and having studied these charts for almost 10 years daily I would not think of suggesting that.

Take a look, from another angle, at how the 12z GFS deals with what you suggest would be an undercut, it does not, IF the run turns out to be near the mark, the surface feature is turned roughly north. It may well be wrong in which case back to the drawing board. It MIGHT happen but it is too far to suggest it will in my view.

Also remember the green lines are contour lines at 500 mb.

 

Edited by johnholmes
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