Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into 2018


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    That will do nicely!

    ECH1-168.GIF.thumb.png.b3924f7424d5b7dde8e93c0d2930fdfe.png

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Looking very nice at 168hrs

    image.thumb.png.4e734ced25de7906d3b406bedfc27c8c.png

    cold uppers on their way

    image.thumb.png.ba18cec784b6357f937493fead2984f7.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ecm showing the way??!!..

    Heights are in good situ..and as again..forming for colder incur via cold pooling to the east..

    Gfs truly out of kilter..

    Though, my money is in an'18z gfs ecm/gem(canadian) variation...

    The wrap is eager, for greenland placement...but with weaker stability east of iceland the modeling i think will become even more 'eyecatching'....

    Ec leading the way!

    ECM0-144.gif

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    T144, ECM, GEM, UKMO, GEFS. 

    Spot the odd man out.:crazy:

    ECM1-144.gif

    gem-0-144.png

    UW144-21.gif

    gfs-0-144.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    35 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    Gem has this nailed why can't it  ... its been very  consistent run to run ..:D

    IMG_0316.PNG

    I want to believe I really do but ....

    Cracking t144 chart by the ecm . Originally the thought was all or nothing first bite but Teits did say it may take two bites and its starting to perhaps look like this might be the case.  Much better heights over the pole and wow to the t168 chart. I believe, I believe.

    ECH1-144.GIF?02-0ECH1-168.GIF?02-0

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

    Those that suggested this run would edge towards the gfs and those that said the ecm would downgrade? This is a two finger answer:D:D seriously tho, it's not about second guessing and ego it's about watching and enjoying. FWIW I'm not suggesting ecm has it right, time will tell eh? Little blob of -12 heading for Mr Murrs house:D

    IMG_0281.PNG

    IMG_0283.PNG

    Edited by That ECM
    • Like 4
    • Thanks 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Can I mention the R word going forward from day 7 on the ECM or will I face the ban hammer if I do?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Anyone spot the Arctic High ridging to the Scandi?

    image.thumb.png.99b7b185aa01b49322459f9bf287ed85.png

    A great 192hr - Excellent in fact. :)

    image.thumb.png.f46e24907580933066e3f029277f70a1.png

    Edited by Purga
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Bank!!! ECM says I’ll see your 00z and raise you the 12z 8)

    55C039F7-9331-4A4B-B8A5-2364DC2BF64C.thumb.png.04b3574dadc42160935b01e9d323eae3.png115B9491-B4FA-4025-ABCA-021DEA4400FA.thumb.png.35a6cb1a6e09e6d6d1d0890fd02bf4d4.png

    Edited by karlos1983
    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    Just one observation on GFS.

    If we look at then ensembles in graph form then it might seem to be a bit of a downgrade, especially re 850 temps.

    But if you wade through the ensembles then it is clear they are increasing the strength of the block and slowly seeing the potential for undercut.

    A couple of days ago all the models were bringing the Atlantic in after a couple of days, now we are seeing battleground scenarios and even classic undercut with the high getting further North as is required to draw in the colder upper air.

    So the big picture is really quite favourable and say that as someone who expected the block to break down within 3 days.

    If it does hold on and we start to see undercut modelled more consistently then some nice upgrades should be in the pipeline - I'm still not totally convinced even though I hope it happens.

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    :cold:

    ECM1-192.gif

    ECM0-192.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    Those that suggested this run would edge towards the gfs and those that said the ecm would downgrade? This is a two finger answer:D:D seriously tho, it's not about second guessing and ego it's about watching and enjoying. FWIW I'm not suggesting ecm has it right, time will tell eh?

    IMG_0281.PNG

    Surely 18Z will be the one that backtracks, maybe 00Z though, GFS surely wrong here according to experts

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Holy cow i'm loving where this Ecm run is going, looks even better than the 00z!:cold-emoji::D

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    Just now, nick sussex said:

    Beta blockers helpline now open! :D

    Special discounts for NW members ! Thrilling ECM run so far.

    Pmsl gonna be good old ride lol

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    And a stunning NH view

    image.thumb.png.d208f3445feac06545e6408c47eda0a9.png

    image.png

    Edited by Purga
    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: leicester
  • Location: leicester

    Differences start as early as 72 hours on the gfs!!firstly that deeper low which mixes out all the cold before it reaches south and then the shortwave around iceland remains attached to the vortex across the northwest!!need to see less deep low at 72 hours on 18z and also seperation of shortwave around iceland!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Surely 18Z will be the one that backtracks, maybe 00Z though, GFS surely wrong here according to experts

    It's looking the less favourite but.......... oh the fun of the chase especially when it's for an easterly. Let's be honest thos it will take all 3 on board and down to t72 before we get really excited and then someone will moan that their area looks dry!!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Seems as if we'd all be better-off if we eschewed tonight's Pub Run torture-session!:yahoo:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL
  • Location: Cyprus and North east Swindon. 104 ASL

    Did not expect this run - kind of head scratching now !! Still need GFS on board but the pub run may do that !!

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...