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Model output discussion - into 2018


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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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5 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECM T72

ECM1-72.GIF?02-0      Yesterdays 12: ECM1-96.GIF?12

I’m going to assume that’s good, seems to be better heights towards Greenland?

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Haven't read beyond the last page (just got in) but it seems like plenty of drama has ensued today!!

Thats what makes the winter MOD thread so addictive. 

But going on GEFS, UKMO and what looks to be a solid GEM this potential easterly has legs.

GFS ens show the op to be quite mild within its suite.

 

IMG_3201.thumb.PNG.d670486e4cdbf471c4d312a2cc2a24a5.PNG

Eyes down form ECM

:)

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4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

T96

ECM1-96.GIF?02-0   Yesterdays ECM1-120.GIF?12

Not as good as yesterdays 12z but still good.

In so many ways that’s a downgrade.

1) the shortwave near Iceland flattening the high more.

2) the low over Europe not clearing as much to the south east.

 

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1 minute ago, mulzy said:

In so many ways that’s a downgrade.

1) the shortwave near Iceland flattening the high more.

2) the low over Europe not clearing as much to the south east.

 

It also stops pushing the high east..... as per the 120 hours chart.

 

Has anyone been having redirects from the mete website?

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4 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

T96

ECM1-96.GIF?02-0   Yesterdays ECM1-120.GIF?12

Not as good as yesterdays 12z but still good.

To me looks as though the low over the N West of US is is slightly less deep, and slightly more energy is being leaked towards Iceland where a more definite shortwave has developed.

Additionally the new high is not as intense.

All slightly weakening the cold duration over the UK.
 

Still much better than the GFS though.

 A good spell though not record breaking is on the cards  (models?)

MIA

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6 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Heights rising over Italy ? What S Sussex mentioned earlier

Preferably the low heights need to be further east from Iberia but the ECM saves the day because its block is better orientated, no sag on the eastern flank and theres a big difference towards the Pacific between it and the GFS.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Preferably the low heights need to be further east from Iberia but the ECM saves the day because its block is better orientated, no sag on the eastern flank and theres a big difference towards the Pacific between it and the GFS.

Indeed Nick - guess the evolution is still red on your scale? ?

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