Model output discussion - into 2018

[fromey]

3 minutes ago, warrenb said:

The key is low off the Eastern Seaboard, as this is what sucks the initial azores up and blocks the flow to initiate the block over us. GEM has been deeper each time, but GFS is slowly deepening this

I assume this is what your on about?

currently I thinks it’s been said to be about 950mb, tracking up the east coast of the USA 

[warrenb]

Just now, fromey said:

I assume this is what your on about?

currently I thinks it’s been said to be about 950mb, tracking up the east coast of the USA 

That is correct, US forecasters have been saying how the GFS has been out of step with the other suites for this storm.

[fromey]

Just now, warrenb said:

That is correct, US forecasters have been saying how the GFS has been out of step with the other suites for this storm.

It looks like a monster but it’s being a great help to us

[booferking]

Shortwave nightmare around Iceland we are cursed for once can it just you know what.

[karlos1983]

Why can't people just PM each other instead of having it out on here for crying out loud, however experienced you may or may not be! let the Mods Moderate eh!

getting to the time frame of interest now on the GFS! eyes down

Edited January 2, 2018 by karlos1983

[northwestsnow]

Snow showers into the SE by sunday morning on GFS?

[frosty ground]

The correction west by the 06z Run has been undone b the 12z run.

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Snow showers into the SE by sunday morning on GFS?

not on the 12z...... Uppers to warm at that point



Jet Stream still not conducive to back the cold West,

Edited January 2, 2018 by frosty ground

[Weathizard]

Looks like game over at 102, could be wrong mind. GFS looks to be doing its best to turn this whole thing into a nothing show.

[northwestsnow]

Looks crap to me at 108? (too much Atlantic energy).

Cant see how this run can be saved already!!

[Polar Maritime]

Can we use the pm system for chit/chat please thanks ☺

[frosty ground]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Looks crap to me at 108? (too much Atlantic energy).

Cant see how this run can be saved already!!

Don't look at this then

[snowray]

 

GFS coming on board slowly, but GEM looks great.

Edited January 2, 2018 by snowray

[That ECM]

I usually prefer nh profile but on this occasion I think demonstrates how the energy is trying to go under on gem and over on gfs. Much to be resolved!! The gem is great btw.

Edited January 2, 2018 by That ECM

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Don't look at this then

FGS.

Cold hard rain then a sinking high.

EDIT 144 not as bad as i feared

 

Edited January 2, 2018 by northwestsnow

[shaky]

Wow what a set of downgrades!!!!didnt expect it to be this bad!!

[winterof79]

GEM

[northwestsnow]

Just now, winterof79 said:

GEM

Thats MUCH better!

[karlos1983]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

FGS.

Cold hard rain then a sinking high.

 

Didn't sink, still options on the table at 144 UKMO

[warrenb]

Yep, GEM sticking to it's guns

[feb1991blizzard]

GEM the pick again - a stonker.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, karlos1983 said:

Didn't sink, still options on the table at 144 UKMO

Yes karlos the 144 was better than i expected

Be interesting to see GEM at 144- i dont think ukmo is anywhere near as good unfortunatley..

[Dancerwithwings]

5 minutes ago, snowray said:

Victory goes to the..........ECM, the Champ!

That winning line is along way off yet......Hope your bloody right though

Edit...Don't you mean the GEM because that's the chart you showing ?

Edited January 2, 2018 by Dancerwithwings

[northwestsnow]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

GEM the pick again - a stonker.

But in the interests of fairness i dont think we can put GEM ahead of ukmo..

[booferking]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Wow what a set of downgrades!!!!didnt expect it to be this bad!!

Sorry but gem shows this and it is a beast of a chart??