Model output discussion - into 2018

[offerman]

12 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

You’re suffering from a lack of balloon data 

Guess so if you say so... :-/

[offerman]

15 minutes ago, ribster said:

You more or less said that already 2 hours ago, or did no one bite first time?

Just to add i wasnt trying to wind anyone up and hoping for people to bite, If you read it again i i was hoping and stating looking like snow at some point during the two cold expected days down here.

Apologies if you took that as a wind up.

[stodge]

Afternoon all

An excellent analysis as always, Catacol, for which many thanks.

My expectation however is as the MJO moves into phase 4 or 5, the Azores HP will come back into play and we will have to endure/enjoy (delete as appropriate) a milder interlude of Atlantic domination before, as it hopefully quickly and with amplitude moves into 6/7 and perhaps 8, it will be much better news for those seeking colder weather.

[Timmytour]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

Based on one gefs run from xmas eve - a stuck clock as they say dave ..........

Now it might be lucky but it's not the broken clock kind of lucky.   That would be the case if he was forever predicting it.

What seems on the surface here to the best of my knowledge is that Deniis from the Netherlands has decided to highlight one run of one model and make a call on it.

As far as I'm aware he is not continually doing this and doesn't post regularly. So he could be one very shrewd analyser. Or, of course, he could have just hit the jackpot on one pull!

[nick sussex]

Good to see the GFS inching slowly towards the Euros .

Still the issue of low heights to the south in terms of how far east these extend and whether anything less cold will get pulled into the circulation from the Med.

This seems currently the more uncertain aspect of the medium term.

 

[Glacier Point]

1 hour ago, Catacol said:

So... as we approach the weekend where are we? 

A brief history - pre xmas ongoing +AAM in the tropics sustaining a decent GWO 4 - 8  orbit was suggesting a scandy high in place about now. But the MJO progression collapsed... = sudden decrease in tropical momentum and consequent increase in westerlies at our latitudes. End result - the rain and wind we are seeing now.

But rather than fall into a low momentum 1,2 orbit GLAAM has rallied somewhat. The MJO did not languish and reemerged quickly and with some strength in the Indian Ocean giving us the current decent amplification phase 2 into 3

and the actual orbit of the GWO has stayed on course for a move through 2 and into phase 3

 

Yes Alistair, angular momentum held up better than expected given the onslaught from forcing centred in the Indian Ocean. That stated, verification for late December and early Jan will be extremely good on Phase 2 composite for Europe.

I suspect we are seeing an initial push towards phase 3-4 in the coming week but not fully drawing support from tropical forcing until back end of week 2 / early week 3.

I think the bottom line is to expect more of this dance throughout the month. Going to be interesting monitoring how much the atmosphere responds given eastward progression of the upper level trop wave across the Maritime Continent into the West Pacific.

Phase 4 composite for GWO sifted for La Nina years..

 

[Swave Snow]

4 hours ago, northwestsnow said:

You really got a bee in your bonnet about the telecommunications department TEITS!!

TBH i dont really understand this aspect of meteorology - but i do agree with your sentiments regarding the EC/GEM

I love TEITS, but to be fair to the teleconnections they pointed out for a long time that things like what we are seeing in the models may happen, also that things were knife edged, and then they always report what they see and it only predicted dire for a few days less than a week, and Catacol was confused at the goings on he saw, and lastly as soon as things began to show what we might be getting they called it again.  I know this is not a Media forum, but all of us must be avid weather forecast watchers and Im sure for the older folk on here you must have noticed the change on the BBC forecasts over recent years to mention Jet Stream behaviour and Polar Vortex behaviour and more recently they are starting on occasion to mention teleconnections.  It seems people like us in these forums get access to newer trends in the forecasting world long before the public hear about it on the telly.

[bluearmy]

39 minutes ago, Timmytour said:

Now it might be lucky but it's not the broken clock kind of lucky.   That would be the case if he was forever predicting it.

What seems on the surface here to the best of my knowledge is that Deniis from the Netherlands has decided to highlight one run of one model and make a call on it.

As far as I'm aware he is not continually doing this and doesn't post regularly. So he could be one very shrewd analyser. Or, of course, he could have just hit the jackpot on one pull!

I like Dennis but I clearly spend too much time on here as I remember most of his posts ..... as you say, perhaps he is a good analyser

btw, the blocking signal he showed on that post was very weak - I recall asking him where it was !! 

[bluearmy]

25 minutes ago, Swave Snow said:

I love TEITS, but to be fair to the teleconnections they pointed out for a long time that things like what we are seeing in the models may happen, also that things were knife edged, and then they always report what they see and it only predicted dire for a few days less than a week, and Catacol was confused at the goings on he saw, and lastly as soon as things began to show what we might be getting they called it again.  I know this is not a Media forum, but all of us must be avid weather forecast watchers and Im sure for the older folk on here you must have noticed the change on the BBC forecasts over recent years to mention Jet Stream behaviour and Polar Vortex behaviour and more recently they are starting on occasion to mention teleconnections.  It seems people like us in these forums get access to newer trends in the forecasting world long before the public hear about it on the telly.

If you read the NOAA cpc analysis each day, you will see them referencing telecons all the time. 

Thats more in the two week area - more than that is going to be fraught with risk 

[SMU]

So as the GFS ignites for another run 

if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE

[Froze were the Days]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So as the GFS ignites for another run 

if you looking for more sustained deeper cold then the shortwave @108 going through Scandi needs to come SW not SE

Your talking about that little u-shaped tongue just east of Denmark?

[Ali1977]

METO update is Defo more GFS than ECM and UKMO!! ??

[karlos1983]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

METO update is Defo more GFS than ECM and UKMO!! ??

one I'm looking at still says 01:37, where you looking Ali?

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Your talking about that little u-shaped tongue just east of Denmark?

This one

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

one I'm looking at still says 01:37, where you looking Ali?

1501 I’m afraid - grabdual return to milder next week - still sounding v cold till mon/Tue. 

[johnholmes]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

METO update is Defo more GFS than ECM and UKMO!! ??

PLEASE this is the model thread NOT Met O update thread

[shaky]

Am waiting for steves booom update lol!!!and then 2 fingers up to the meto forecast!!??

Edited January 2, 2018 by shaky

[sundog]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

1501 I’m afraid - grabdual return to milder next week - still sounding v cold till mon/Tue. 

No one really knows  yet what will happen next week. Not the met, models,me, you or anyone else. As long as that remains for the time being i would like to be optimistic.

[MattTarrant]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

1501 I’m afraid - grabdual return to milder next week - still sounding v cold till mon/Tue. 

I don't intend on cluttering this thread (Sorry John), but none of the models have been predicting the notably below average temperatures to stay for more than around 4/5 days. Despite the ECM being the road we would preferably want to go down, it does still bring *slightly* LESS COLD conditions as the wind has more of a South Easterly component around mid week (Next week) before the blocking re - orientates itself and PERHAPS gives us chances further down the line. 

[Ali1977]

9 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

PLEASE this is the model thread NOT Met O update thread

Surely their ideas go towards what may happen , and that’s what we discuss!! And when models are showing different things it’s even more relevent, stops people getting their hopes up etc ...

Edited January 2, 2018 by Ali1977

[johnholmes]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Surely their ideas go towards what may happen , and that’s what we discuss!! 

Well the title of this thread is

 

Model output discussion - into 2018

Is that not clear enough?

PLEASE read what Paul wrote at the beginning of this thread.

It really is getting tiresome.

Sorry team for this outburst but it needs saying by an ordinary poster.

 

[johnholmes]

The problem with a flow off the continent is IF the flow originates from south of the Alps, then it often turns less cold even mild as warmer air at both the surface and aloft arrives over the UK from the SE.

Not to say this is going to happen as the models are still giving differing variations, as they often do run to run.

[Ali1977]

2 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Well the title of this thread is

 

Model output discussion - into 2018

Is that not clear enough?

PLEASE read what Paul wrote at the beginning of this thread.

It really is getting tiresome.

Sorry team for this outburst but it needs saying by an ordinary poster.

 

I could say I’m discussing their model output discussion - however as you’re an experienced long time member on here I’ll take your point. 

[warrenb]

The key is low off the Eastern Seaboard, as this is what sucks the initial azores up and blocks the flow to initiate the block over us. GEM has been deeper each time, but GFS is slowly deepening this

[Scandinavian High.]

12z coming out soon can someone point me in right direction meto updates please can't find it sorry.