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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    29 minutes ago, tinybill said:

    i  know  it might  happen but jan 15   could  be interesting!!

    12_336_preciptype.png

    Is that a north sea dangler:shok::rofl:

    jokes aside

    the De-builts latest,op,control and gem all support the idea of an easterly now:D

    this mornings and tonights.

    5a4aa7210f2dc_eps_pluim_dd_062602.thumb.png.e68b3d14a87710595b50e5fa3aed7ba0.png5a4aa7256203e_eps_pluim_dd_062603.thumb.png.b24a3baf6419b65b5679fcba66f354bc.png

    pressure,Oslo and Moscow

    prmslOslo.pngprmslMoscow.png

    ecm and gefs mean height anomoly's at 240 in pretty good agreement with hp to our NE and low preasure to our south.

    gfsnh-12-240.png?12EDH101-240.GIF?01-0

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)

    Rtavn1201.gif Rukm1201.gif Recm1201.gif

    There's actually a classic shortwave drama at play for the weekend and unusually it's ECM making the least of the troublesome feature.

    An Icelandic SLP ensemble plot would be handy for a quick idea of probability - anyone know of such a thing? TIA

    The extent to which this impacts the initial inflow of cold air, due to knock-on effects regarding the shape of both the ridge to the north and the LP over Europe, is considerable.

     

    It is a very nice ECM 12z indeed when all's said and done. I must admit I didn't think I'd see any runs today placing me under 850s of less than -5*C for four days running! 

     

    Interesting news from Nick regarding the MJO update. Looks like we're hunting for a favourable form of the 'tweaks' to the analogues - in terms of what we see on on any particular occasion - that we usually see one way or the other as a result of sea temperature patterns, the preceding polar vortex state, sea ice patterns, etc.

    You see, some of those analogue years will have had a significant El Nino influence, for example. One needs La Nina-adjusted analogues in these situations, but I've not been able to find the place to generate or obtain those lately; something seems to have changed over on the NCEP sites.

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    Much cleaner low at 90 with a keen NE wind into Scotland,no shortwave drama to the NW as apposed to the 12z.

    gfseu-0-90.png?18gfseu-0-96.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    2 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Hmmm model fatigue already!!i thought it would be a lot busier in here right now!!

    Nobody dares to breath.. Here comes the cold uppers at 114

    gfsnh-1-114.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Hot and Sunny but not opressive
  • Location: Chessington, Surrey

    Lovely Jubbly .

     

    E8EBD619-C00C-4D2D-A7FD-2FCD03BC327F.png

    AD3E5209-6283-4560-8A3A-BAACE2BC89D2.png

    085C2669-C0B4-450E-B9AE-2F8D13651ADE.jpeg

    Edited by Mark wheeler
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    18z is boom town

    perfect flow

    uppers down to -12c now for Scotland !

    Not quiet Steve,northern Shetland isles yes,better run though with the -4 line clearing the south coast by 120:)

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    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl

    very weird - spain and even NORTH AFRICA have more snow than we do at the weekend initially lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    18z is boom town

    perfect flow

    uppers down to -12c now for Scotland !

    Looks like a very dry run to me, very cold but mostly dry. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

    Most of the energy going over the top into the N arm of the jet though- as per week ahead forecast by the BBC tonight

    gfs-0-138.png?18

    Hoping this changes on future GFS output- it would take us from so-so to potentially staring down the barrel of a prolonged cold spell

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    At 144,pass me the bucket:bad:

    initially it was a good run early on so not worried yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    6 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Most of the energy going over the top into the N arm of the jet though- as per week ahead forecast by the BBC tonight

    gfs-0-138.png?18

    Hoping this changes on future GFS output

    Yes the HP will sink into Europe, then back to the Atlantic for us  :doh:

    Edited by Dancerwithwings
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    After what we've all endured, since early April 2013, this sort of chart will do me fine. For now!:yahoo:

    h850t850eu.png

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    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Most of the energy going over the top into the N arm of the jet though- as per week ahead forecast by the BBC tonight

    gfs-0-138.png?18

    Hoping this changes on future GFS output- it would take us from so-so to potentially staring down the barrel of a prolonged cold spell

    That would be one of my main fears that over the next four days or so we see the amplification slowly being eroded away and we end up with a very familiar high over the UK and the cold going further south. I am of course hoping that the trend goes the other way and we see small increments of higher pressure to the north and north east.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl

    I'll settle for it! dry Monday's in January are rare, this also looks very cold, mild uppers yes, but cold surface

    gfs-0-162.png?18

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    4 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

    Yes the HP will sink into Europe....Back to the Atlantic  :doh:

    Well not necessarily. There will be a window of opportunity, even if the initial pressure build does sink slightly, whereby the block realigns so that WAA is sent N again and a restrengthened block emerges. If this happens too far east however, it will be of no use to us- so we need to see the block not sink too far SE.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Just for comparison GFS 18z versus ECM 12z for Sunday at the same time . Hopefully the ECM is bang on . 

    IMG_0987.PNG

    IMG_0988.PNG

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    Posted
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT
  • Location: New Ash green 150M / 500 FT

    & then the GFS falls apart as per the same 18z last-

    oh well it’s all about the first bit !

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Such huge differences between this run and the 12z, not sure how seriously it should be taken. Looking at 174

    18z gfsnh-0-174.png?18  12z gfsnh-0-180.png?12

    Last nights 18z was as out of kilter versus the previous 12z also. (Edit - Steve beat me to it)

     

    Edited by Ice Day
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Steve Murr said:

    & then the GFS falls apart as per the same 18z last-

    oh well it’s all about the first bit !

    It's the second phase that potentially could lead to bigger and better things Steve. The opening ceremony, if you like, will be a brief blink and you'll miss it affair spanning a couple of days. 

    If it goes the way of ECM then greatness awaits further on into the month.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    I did mention this earlier that gfs could go that way short snap but we are still 5 days out so still changes to come hopefully with gfs..

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