Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Model output discussion - into 2018


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Once you lose the more convection producing uppers it’s best if the flow turns more ese or se as this would keep dew points lower and have a better chance of importing some clearer conditions from mainland Europe .

    It doesn’t matter if the circulation is more se as long as low heights remain far enough east to the south to stop any Med air getting into Central Europe.

    Anyway that’s well into future and we really need to see the good foundations put down by the ECM op run earlier agreed on.

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 5.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 would be nice :-)
    29 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

    It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

    Moscow.........I said Russia, Plenty of very cold air east of Moscow.

    image.thumb.png.8c98cf4cf1d31cf07bf6f7eabe89b8c7.pngECE101-240_qpm0.GIF

    Anyway plenty going on before then:)

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Not entirely sure EC mean shows the Atlantic breaking thru -

    Stays cold to the end - 

    Scope for some significant snowfall as systems move into the cold air imho..

    mean at 192-

    EDM0-192.GIF?01-0

    Edited by northwestsnow
    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Some decent NE/E winds bringing much colder air across the UK & Ireland. 

    I have to say although this can often bring lots of snow to the east of the UK, (maybe eastern Ireland too from off the Irish Sea) many western areas (including where I am in South Wales) usually stays sunny, cold and frosty throughout. However if any rain tries to sneak in from an approaching Atlantic low (there are hints of this happening next week), once it bumps into the cold air, then the snow risk rapidly increases for us too for a time anyway. Those scenarios have brought some decent snow even on the coast. One to watch. 

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
    10 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

    Remember that is 850's and by the end the OP's uppers were watered down

    Extended EPS keeps low heights to our South and ridge to the north east all the way out to t-360. Ridge migrates east over time but 850’s and 2m temps remain well below all the way out. 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
    6 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

    Some decent NE/E winds bringing much colder air across the UK & Ireland. 

    I have to say although this can often bring lots of snow to the east of the UK, (maybe eastern Ireland too from off the Irish Sea) many western areas (including where I am in South Wales) usually stays sunny, cold and frosty throughout. However if any rain tries to sneak in from an approaching Atlantic low (there are hints of this happening next week), once it bumps into the cold air, then the snow risk rapidly increases for us too for a time anyway. Those scenarios have brought some decent snow even on the coast. One to watch. 

    get those 850 temps in - then look out for the snow

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

    Some decent NE/E winds bringing much colder air across the UK & Ireland. 

    I have to say although this can often bring lots of snow to the east of the UK, (maybe eastern Ireland too from off the Irish Sea) many western areas (including where I am in South Wales) usually stays sunny, cold and frosty throughout. However if any rain tries to sneak in from an approaching Atlantic low (there are hints of this happening next week), once it bumps into the cold air, then the snow risk rapidly increases for us too for a time anyway. Those scenarios have brought some decent snow even on the coast. One to watch. 

    Ooh I'll have to have a look. Tbh I lost the will to look anymore from Thursday's chart as it seems we're in for a depressingly long period of gales / severe gales with squally rain & showers tomorrow and Wednesday! 

    Yeah best scenario for us, Atlantic rain hitting very cold air over us and kaboom! let it snow, let it snow lol 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    The EC mean FWIW at day 9 onwards does NOT suggest the Atlantic coming in from the NW- this is a very important clue as to the nature of the attempted breakdown, in a swift milder breakdown we would be seeing milder air into NW scotland first, this is absolutely not the case on this evenings mean.

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer & Winter
  • Location: manchester

    ecm 12Z has a nice scandi block opening the door to a frozen E'ly flow for about a week. Very cold uppers too :)

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    9 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

    Ooh I'll have to have a look. Tbh I lost the will to look anymore from Thursday's chart as it seems we're in for a depressingly long period of gales / severe gales with squally rain & showers tomorrow and Wednesday! 

    Yeah best scenario for us, Atlantic rain hitting very cold air over us and kaboom! let it snow, let it snow lol 

    Yes it looks very rough, gusts up to 70mph W then WNW winds, hopefully there won't be any severe coastal flooding as we're experiencing high spring tides this week. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Sunny crisp frosty days & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

    Just logging on for the eve, what have I missed? :D

    Just for fun but loving the end of the GEM run, look at the snow building in!

    gemeu-2-198.thumb.png.ad058c7dfd7e95cc678eed99902191ef.pnggemeu-2-204.thumb.png.e477f5f78a82f7e982b2a8f784ec3c99.pnggemeu-2-210.thumb.png.428be6217151fb7fbe282a626491eaa4.png

    gemeu-2-216.thumb.png.68b475a1ad8e44fa43509c96d64180be.pnggemeu-2-222.thumb.png.bad626e27a95180f130904dc0c23ee7d.pnggemeu-2-228.thumb.png.33eb56d2a5bfb714dc58fd9d612cc8a7.png

     

    gemnh-0-192.thumb.png.dd7e7835df17b45981ee32597ad5db8a.pnggemnh-0-210.thumb.png.9fa2da8c70ec519099850fe0593ecca7.pnggemnh-0-228.thumb.png.51e5beabf9a5f4fd1562a992d07ae244.png

    Another good set of runs this eve, a very decent cold spell could be on the cards. The upgrades continue to gather pace!

    gemeu-2-192.png

    Can't remove last chart for some reason

    Edited by Day 10
    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.

    Evening All:cold: Well ,Well Well, another cold spell looking likely by the weekend , different synoptic situation from the previous few snowy periods , but very interesting non the less. No point looking at precip charts or snow charts at this stage , but high pressure over Svalbard looks like giving the uk__ A REAL FEEL OF WINTER:cold::cold::cold:

    as early.png

    as earlyx.png

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

    i  know  it might  happen but jan 15   could  be interesting!!

    12_336_preciptype.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

    ECM was fantastic this evening cold more prolonged but gfs seems to have a short cold snap then high collapses over uk then then back in to a westerly air stream I hope this is not a trend from gfs because  it is a short cold blast ..   that's way I see it but could be totally wrong..

     

     

     

    IMG_0306.PNG

    Edited by abbie123
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme and Exciting weather, hate stratus clouds and drizzile
  • Location: Hampton, Evesham, Worcestershire. 27m asl.
    3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

    i  know  it might  happen but jan 15   could  be interesting!!

    12_336_preciptype.png

    Yes it will be interesting that far out :rofl::rofl::rofl:

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Storm Eleanor has now been named by the Irish Met Office, it's expected to move across the UK from tomorrow evening bringing heavy, squally rain and severe gales. 

    GFS 18z starting to roll out shortly and for me I'll be concentrating on the next 36 hours snow/cold can wait for now. 

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT

     guys it’s exciting to watch the development how everlet’s keep our feet on the ground remember 2012 and that ecm need i say mor.  sorry to be the voice of doom first day of the year 

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites

    Great afternoon and evening's model watching. Of course can not put any real detail on weekend onwards other than to say it looks to be turning much colder perhaps very cold as we go through the weekend into next week. Ecm even toying with prolonging the cold although depending on high pressure orientation will determine how cold and wintry this spell likely to be.

    I wonder what delights the 18z will show us.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...