Model output discussion - into 2018

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The mean isn't desperate though.

Not quite as good as the 12z though. The direction of travel is all wrong from the 18z suite tonight if you're of a cold persuasion. Obviously, this could all change again with the 0z suite...

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Not quite as good as the 12z though. The direction of travel is all wrong from the 18z suite tonight if you're of a cold persuasion. Obviously, this could all change again with the 0z suite...

Yes I edited post - must have been after you quoted - I think we should wait until tomorrow at least until after 6z, although my method with GEFS says that because the initial Easterly is at relatively short timeframe now, if there is a serious flattening over the next few suites then the writing will be on the wall - if its downgraded further by this time tomorrow then definitely game over.

[bluearmy]

9 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not quite as good as the 12z though. The direction of travel is all wrong from the 18z suite tonight if you're of a cold persuasion. Obviously, this could all change again with the 0z suite...

You could argue that the mean at day 8 is marginally better on the 18z than the 12z. Not allot in it - slightly less amp over scandi but better alignment of the Atlantic trough for some WAA. 

Edited December 31, 2017 by bluearmy

[The Eagle]

NAVGEM 18z

 

[feb1991blizzard]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

You child argue that the mean at day 8 is marginally better on the 18z than the 12z. Not allot in it - slightly less amp over scandi but better alignment of the Atlantic trough for some WAA. 

Actually the uppers are better as well, the colder air further south, sometimes with ensemble means, your better off going on the 850's rather than the mean troughs and ridges.

Edited December 31, 2017 by feb1991blizzard

[lassie23]

Happy New Year to the cherry pickers, cold rampers, essay writers, the off topicas, (no such word) mild lovers and to the sensible lot too, oh and not to forget the one linerers whose posts mysteriously disappear, see you all in 2018

[Mokidugway]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Happy New Year to the cherry pickers, cold rampers, essay writers, the off topicas, (no such word) mild lovers and to the sensible lot too, oh and not to forget the one linerers whose posts mysteriously disappear, see you all in 2018

As I'm shure your post will 

[bluearmy]

Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Actually the uppers are better as well, the colder air further south, sometimes with ensembles, your better off going on the 850's rather than the mean troughs and ridges.

With the set up at day 8, I'm not going to pay too much attention to the gefs into low res. Similarly the eps post day 10. These split jets are notoriously tough to model, even in high res. 

[The Eagle]

 

Happy New Year everyone! 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

With the set up at day 8, I'm not going to pay too much attention to the gefs into low res. Similarly the eps post day 10. These split jets are notoriously tough to model, even in high res. 

HMMM  -  I do see your point but I would still want a bit more undercutting to be honest.

[Man With Beard]

The ECM control run cluster is the largest in the D11-D15 period - and it's a classic with a Euro trough and heights to the north. In fact I think it's a BOOM chart!!

Everything to do with the ECM is trending towards the Scandi ridge. Most other output similarly. Why then emphasise the GFS at this moment?

[Daniel*]

5 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM control run cluster is the largest in the D11-D15 period - and it's a classic with a Euro trough and heights to the north. In fact I think it's a BOOM chart!!

Everything to do with the ECM is trending towards the Scandi ridge. Most other output similarly. Why then emphasise the GFS at this moment?

That’s fantastic best I’ve seen of the winter really, best performing in the longer range so take seriously. I don’t quite follow that this easterly is not going to happen, there will be an easterly how long is the question.

[Snowman.]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM control run cluster is the largest in the D11-D15 period - and it's a classic with a Euro trough and heights to the north. In fact I think it's a BOOM chart!!

Everything to do with the ECM is trending towards the Scandi ridge. Most other output similarly. Why then emphasise the GFS at this moment?

Weird to think that Cluster was so small many days ago but never really went away. Now it's the largest cluster.

Maybe things can actually go our way.

[Cheshire Freeze]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM control run cluster is the largest in the D11-D15 period - and it's a classic with a Euro trough and heights to the north. In fact I think it's a BOOM chart!!

Everything to do with the ECM is trending towards the Scandi ridge. Most other output similarly. Why then emphasise the GFS at this moment?

Because unfortunately, where the UK is concerned, the least wintry output is usually the one that ends up verifying.

No-one is saying the GFS is correct but it is something to be mindful of.

Edited December 31, 2017 by CreweCold

[Man With Beard]

Oh what the heck it's New Year's. EC control run cluster still has NE ridge by T360. Cluster 3 also a bit tasty.

[alexisj9]

32 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Well, for what it's worth, the control isn't much better

Hmm the high over us instead of in sandy, still looks rather cold. It's going for one of the anti cyclonic solutions.

Edited December 31, 2017 by alexisj9

[Man With Beard]

4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Because unfortunately, where the UK is concerned, the least wintry output is usually the one that ends up verifying.

That theory didn't work on December 10th or December 27th 

but I'm sure it will again soon

look I don't want anyone to get the wrong idea. The charts I posted do look very nice for coldies, but before getting carried away I'd be looking for a. a few more runs like this and b. looking for that cluster to grow. But one can dream!

Edited December 31, 2017 by Man With Beard

[Paul_1978]

11 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

The ECM control run cluster is the largest in the D11-D15 period - and it's a classic with a Euro trough and heights to the north. In fact I think it's a BOOM chart!!

Everything to do with the ECM is trending towards the Scandi ridge. Most other output similarly. Why then emphasise the GFS at this moment?

It’s funny isn’t it - everyone bashing the bishop over the ECM, then the GFS 18z comes out and we all go limp .

[Dancerwithwings]

Happy new year to all at Net Weather and to lassi & Moki, I'm sure your posts will stay just this once as it's party time and all that 

Let hope it's party time for us coldies in 2018 

[Scandinavian High.]

Ukmo seem confident that high pressure will build to the north and extend in scandi with much colder weather snow increasing as move further on in to the period. Anyway happy new year everyone..

[CK1981]

Happy New Year everyone! Thank you so much for the excellent posts and insights. May 2018 bring us all what we want and for the models to be kind. All the very best to you all ?

Edited December 31, 2017 by CK1981

[Cheshire Freeze]

3 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

The 18z GFS run is a known progression trend setter apparently 

Is it? Where do you get that info from may I ask?

Any GFS run can set a trend, not just one run. However, the notion that the 18z and 6z GFS runs are somehow 'crap' and shouldn't be paid attention to is a complete fallacy.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, ShortWaveHell said:

Crewcold You ... ‘many times Infact’  so crack on and show me the dates , pretty please 

Hey?

Don't know what your issue is pal but don't talk down to me...

 

[feb1991blizzard]

17 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Oh what the heck it's New Year's. EC control run cluster still has NE ridge by T360. Cluster 3 also a bit tasty.

Yes I was debating whether to post them, the London ensemble graph shows another dip right at the end but nothing to write home about, ive got a feeling that 2017/18 is going to be year of the slider.

EDIT : mind you those graphs are apparantely for isle of wight or somewhere like that- a bit misleading, its like me saying - look at these Saddleworth ensembles!!!!

Edited January 1, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

Just Incase I was going mad 

Yes and there has been. Just because I can't pull dates out of my sleeve it does not make it factually incorrect what I said. From experience, and others I'm sure can back me up here, we have gone to bed on a bad 18z only to wake up to find the other models have followed suit. 

Like I said, I'm not for one second saying that will be the case this time, but to dismiss a model run because it isn't desirable is lunacy.