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Model output discussion - into 2018


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I couldn't see much mild on the 18z tonight but I saw plenty of cold and a much more blocked extended range compared to the rampant atlantic on last night's run..hopefully some more snow to look forward to and frost / ice of course!:D:cold-emoji:

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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37 minutes ago, Had Worse said:

Just looking at T+162 18z and there appears to be three areas of high pressure trying to hold hands. (Sorry cant post chart) Thats the green land, the artic and scandi.

Would that not allow the low to sink south and then bring on an easterly flow?

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2 minutes ago, fat chad said:

Would that not allow the low to sink south and then bring on an easterly flow?

If the scandi ridges to Greenland, yes it' possible that a flow from the East could happen. Depends on orientation and other features though.

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Colder uppers are stuck over Eastern Europe and no signs of anything better reaching us by the time the trough is here. This run shows -1 or so by the time the trough passes through, simply nowhere near enough. Even FI, with a decent cold pool puts us in a dry, barren south easterly. 

Edited by ukpaul
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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

There are quite a few GEFS even better than the op in terms of trough disruption building a stronger ridge nw towards eastern Greenland at T156hrs.

Weekends runs may be an insight in too a new set up?

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

No worries- 

the issue’ I have is nowt to do with 1 upmanship - it’s the blind comments regarding this upcoming continental flow like it’s dead & buried etc etc

when it is getting to a stage where the aforementioned dead & buried Easterly can still have an impact on the front coming in from the NW 

The is enough available surface ( & indeed upper cold ) to support snow in this front if we can squeeze a bit more depth in the first place -

Yes a massive convective flow isn’t going to happen however the next best thing is low pressure in the Atlantic hitting continental air over the UK

so every nudge west / sharpened trough etc could eventually support a better outcome-

Instead of coming on here & bleating just think what it could be working towards..

woah steve, thats a bit harsh, its a discussion. someone disagreeing with you is not "bleating"! to be fair, you've been "bleating" about this raging easterly, assuring everyone its going to happen, when all we'll get out of it is... fog. as some of us have said, and you are now saying, it could lead to something better. this particular scandi high won't deliver in its current form but its legacy could end up bringing us colder conditions. firstly by a cold (even snowy) northwesterly, then a possible greenland high. most of us want snow and we're looking for the best evolutions towards that. we also have a possible SSW to look forward to. 

i say we stop the sniping as of now and keep it to healthy debate. nothing wrong with questioning each other but we shouldn't let it get out of hand.

Rob

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7 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly -

The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another.

The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

here is that model run ( ECM ) at day 8

CC3B5C80-227E-439B-A450-49A14F64FF1F.thumb.png.468c11923682817054c62198be87bd4a.png

 

& here is current day 4 run

355FCA98-A7D8-4562-A926-F5B7BACD011F.thumb.png.38d0fb68f2e3abcb84a42372b929b21f.png

 

if if you want to pick holes in that 8 days out then be my guest.

Instead of preeching to me you might want to ask your self how many times the Northwesterly has been put back - were probably about 3 days now. An evolution you continually went on about every post-

 

Steve-

No need to throw a tantrum, I'm merely pointing out that we are seeing an evolution playing out that was a blend of the modelling last week. Plenty of posts on here bashing the GFS and saying how rubbish it is when, in fact, it is only because it is more predisposed to showing a more rampant N arm of the jet that it gets the bad rep. The ECM, which seemingly overamplifies, gets a pass because the output it produces with its bias is much easier on the eye.

You do realise that a lot of people on here believed that when you were talking about an E'ly, you were saying it would usher in cold uppers and convective potential? In fact there was a point last week where me and @feb1991blizzard were saying thicknesses were not even shown to be low enough (even on the better runs) to promote convection and we both got told we were being negative-

 

Edited by Paul
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Just now, Jason M said:

Okay dokey, lets have a truce now. This whole thing is getting very boring. 

We have possibly the best pub run of the winter so lets move on.

 

 

 

 

Amen to that, like a bloody playground in here. 

On the cusp of some cracking winter synoptics and people are at each other’s throats. Who cares who was right/wrong indifferent. Personally anyone who has a view and is willing to put a case forward has my attention, regardless of the eventual outcome.

 

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4 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Colder uppers are stuck over Eastern Europe and no signs of anything better reaching us by the time the trough is here. This run shows -1 or so by the time the trough passes through, simply nowhere near enough. Even FI, with a decent cold pool puts us in a dry, barren south easterly. 

Yes, but ignore post 240 as it goes low res. If we got to the position shown at day 9, we would be in a very good place indeed. Not saying it will verify but as alluded too earlier it does make sense and that's a pretty good starting point.

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2 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Yes, but ignore post 240 as it goes low res. If we got to the position shown at day 9, we would be in a very good place indeed. Not saying it will verify but as alluded too earlier it does make sense and that's a pretty good starting point.

The trough is weaker, the setup more marginal, the uppers poorer, strong possibilities of heavy snow showers even reaching the south later are replaced by a more transient chance of slush and sleet. Each run today, maybe excepting the ECM and JMA 12z had a much better setup by day 9.

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Amen to that, like a bloody playground in here. 

On the cusp of some cracking winter synoptics and people are at each other’s throats. Who cares who was right/wrong indifferent. Personally anyone who has a view and is willing to put a case forward has my attention, regardless of the eventual outcome.

 

Indeed! Some posts may end up getting zapped to dust soon if the bickering and ranting continues!

Always the Private Message/Sticky Notes chat facilities to continue the rants.

No more naughtiness now please guys. Cheers! Back to the Model Output ?

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

18z GEFS are the most acute with the Atlantic so far - with trough disruption starting to become a big feature. This will interupt the clean NW flow stop it west of the UK.

50/50 at the mo- see what Weds brings -

I guess that would keep the UK in colder continental air steve?

Edited by Nick L
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Just now, northwestsnow said:

I guess that would keep the UK in colder continental air steve?

Depends on the shape of the cut off low & trough disruption - if cut of low becomes circular it’s no good for anyone TBH -

needs to be proper squashed like this

C4033137-78CE-4828-B2AD-C0D8E33F625A.thumb.png.6b663b5306ee8bc6bb60c87a689cc8dd.png

 

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I'm finding all this Easterly talk and timings very confusing.

As far as I can tell we were all rooting for an initial Easterly modelled by ECM, that has been and gone.

No idea if anyone mentioned an Easterly for the weekend from the Scandi block but that could never happen and was never modelled and as far as I know not talked up?

For my part I said that an Easterly after mid month looked possible,and maybe a better bet than the original Easterly that was modelled and has been consigned to annals of history.

The reasoning was that the block is already in place and that the models have shown less reluctance to have troughs disrupt/push SE into Europe.

A consequence of this, if it that is the way things go, will be positive heights pushed NW from Scandinavia and a sinking Euro trough.

Prime ingredients for an Easterly set up except we currently have a lot of Atlantic forcing and little amplification modelled upstream.

Still nothing has changed for me over the last few days, writing off an Easterly post mid month or forecasting one is a fools errand.

Great model viewing either way, unless your weather  reality is defined by 10 day mean anomaly charts or a cherry picked 240hr op run.

Edited by Mucka
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EC clusters tonight

By T156, it's clear the ensembles want to take the Atlantic trough slightly more north through the UK than previously - the op run probably most southerly. Scandi heights have given up the ghost by now on all except the op run

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010912_156.

By T240, interest split between the two troughs allowing scope for a northerly. Looking at individual members, it is clear a very large group now go for this temporary northerly of perhaps 2 or 3 days. Doesn't look overly snowy at the moment but scope for development into something like what we had in December I'd guess: [EDIT: Just seen GFS 18Z op run and the evolution it shows D9-D11 is not unlike quite a few of these ECM ensembles]

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2018010912_240.

Again just one cluster after T264. I'm beginning to think one cluster actually means "No idea whatsoever", as the amount of scatter between D11-D15 when looking through individual members is staggering. I looked through 28 members for D15 and honestly anything from deep cold to record warmth on offer, and everything in between, with no sense of direction at all. In my opinion, bin the ECM mean tonight after D12. There's no way there can be a representative run for the UK from that group!!

Edited by Man With Beard
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Anyway, at least most of us will agree that next week looks much more potentially interesting than this week in terms of more action packed weather with a wintry flavour, a chance of snow, ice and frosts featuring in the forecasts next week and hopefully beyond!:):cold:

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