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Model output discussion - into 2018

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Cross-model agreement on Trough making a breakthrough @ 144hrs... however GFS sends it more to the north...gfs-0-144.thumb.png.0be3368a857a5e18a19bdda548c4f0db.png

 

UKMO and EC send it further south over the uk...ECM1-144.thumb.GIF.2a62c7fb09e0794de813477be5e9fbad.GIF

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Ensembles suggesting a cool down next few weeks...  NWly flow.. cool/cold polar maritime airflow. No beast from the east (yet). t850Aberdeenshire.png

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9 minutes ago, carinthian said:

Morning all. All models this morning keep the block in place to start the weekend. At 96h still will be a cold surface flow with an easterly component. Overall these latest runs are a bit less progressive than yesterdays. Expect further changes today in the shorter term outputs as the block looks very resilient . At models by the medium term 144t show the Atlantic trough making headway, but the position, timing and crucial alignment will change from run to run. However, its the period of resistance to the block out to 120h that shows greatest interest to me  and looks unresolved yet as to where we will be looking to by weekend. 

C

C

GFSOPEU00_96_1.png

Yes carinthian just compared yesterdays 120 hour chart from ukmo and ecm to todays 96 hour charts and the block is definately stronger and further west by around 200 miles!!yes the atlantic will break through but we could have a snowy battle before hand!!

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7 minutes ago, oldsnowywizard said:

I have been a member for a long time.. i dont post that much as I live in Switzerland..however my years of chasing the snow flake for the UK keeps me tapped in to the daily charts, forecasts, wishes, arguments and let downs. I am exceptionally disappointed with the childish undetone and verbal rants of some of the posters (some who should know better). You all are exceptionally lucky to have people on here who provide their THOUGHTS regularly on their OPINION of what COULD happen. They might be RIGHT, they might be WRONG... but they make this forum interesting becuase they are taking their time to give everyone ideas, knowledge and experience. Please have RESPECT for posters and do not start to antagonize becuase something didnt go the way they said. THE WEATHER DOES WHAT THE WEATHER DOES. 

A huge thanks to the members for their contributions over the years

Good post same here long time member and as usual each winter looking at charts to far in advance some never learn.

 

Les

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Whilst many would be hoping that the models would trend the trough sw next week, there is no doubt that the favoured position (and reasonably consistent now) for the axis is just east of us. I suspect any further holding back of the Atlantic by the blocking could affect that which is where the fascination with the block comes from. 

@CreweCold - Aaron, do you have any photos from that hot tub experience .....  time to let go mate !

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The Scandi High ever present still in the models. Thought the High was supposed to pushed away but later this week? It still has influence on the weekend. The UKMET model has been consistent throughout with keeping it in situation fighting any Atlantic attack. Will this PM air actually arrive as currently shown in FI on the GFS

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EC looks incredibly snowy for NW Britain this morning- GFS too shows loads of snow for NW England/Ulster/Scotland- high snowfall totals on EC snow depth charts in said areas.

Snow chances aside EC looks very pleasing on the eye this morning - i am refraining from ramping this up yet but its looking very good- add to that GPs post last night and it looks good to me  :)

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3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Whilst many would be hoping that the models would trend the trough sw next week, there is no doubt that the favoured position (and reasonably consistent now) for the axis is just east of us. I suspect any further holding back of the Atlantic by the blocking could affect that which is where the fascination with the block comes from. 

@CreweCold - Aaron, do you have any photos from that hot tub experience .....  time to let go mate !

Both GFS/EC look very snow for NW Britain from 168 onwards this morning Blue :)

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23 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yes carinthian just compared yesterdays 120 hour chart from ukmo and ecm to todays 96 hour charts and the block is definately stronger and further west by around 200 miles!!yes the atlantic will break through but we could have a snowy battle before hand!!

Hello Shaky, not sure of a snowy battle. The jet flow chart below from GFS even at 144t still shows a split and with the main zonal flow diving to the south of the British Isles. That would indicate that there will still be an influence of the block to the east. Precipitation charts also show England and Wales dry even to start Monday next week, but that's still a long way off. Cheers.

 C

GFSOPEU00_144_21.png

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12 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

The Scandi High ever present still in the models. Thought the High was supposed to pushed away but later this week? It still has influence on the weekend. The UKMET model has been consistent throughout with keeping it in situation fighting any Atlantic attack. Will this PM air actually arrive as currently shown in FI on the GFS

Although there hasn't been any screaming easterly, that block is holding strong and at the moment keeps holding the Atlantic back. Too many people just assumed the Atlantic would barge through and it appears that FI is no more than 3 or 4 days out currently. One of those situations where the weather makes fools of many of us. Here is the current 120h output for the 'Big 3' for sake of comparison.

gfs-0-120.png

ECM1-120.gif

UW120-21.gif

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A snapshot of the the dew points on GFS 00z shows us how cold the air will be if the Polar NW winds come off-

starts next monday-

GFSOPUK00_165_10.png

GFSOPUK00_201_10.png

GFSOPUK00_210_10.png

GFSOPUK00_219_10.png

They stay negative until the following monday.

 

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

A snapshot of the the dew points on GFS 00z shows us how cold the air will be if the Polar NW winds come off-

starts next monday-

GFSOPUK00_165_10.png

GFSOPUK00_201_10.png

GFSOPUK00_210_10.png

GFSOPUK00_219_10.png

They stay negative until the following monday.

 

With DP below freezing how cold do 850s need to be to have the chance of snow - would -3/4 cut it I wonder!!

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Just now, Ali1977 said:

With DP below freezing how cold do 850s need to be to have the chance of snow - would -3/4 cut it I wonder!!

I'm not sure, think there are a number of variables at play but GFS shows uppers around -5/-6 quite widely, wet bulbs etc will also play a part.

I'm sure one of the more knowledgable will be able to help..:)

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not sure, think there are a number of variables at play but GFS shows uppers around -5/-6 quite widely, wet bulbs etc will also play a part.

I'm sure one of the more knowledgable will be able to help..:)

This guide is superb!

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8 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO and GFS at t168

ukm2.2018011600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.74ad0dcf1ea9fbbf347b96f60f684b41.pnggfs2.2018011600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ffe80dc3d8fa104a663a5ebdf5085843.png

The UKMO places the Azores high further west and the trough digging better into Iberia. Ironically, the gfs would be colder though.

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26 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Again someone using the wrong terminology mentioning the word cool when suggesting a northwesterly wind which will carry Polar Maritime air which is sourced from Greenland and bringing snow .Cool is a summer terminology and really irritating when this word is used in deep mid winter. It won't feel cool it would feel frigid with a wind from the northwest carrying Artic air:cold:

I think you'll find he said it will cool down which is the correct terminology to describe things getting cool or cold.

And a cool/cold airflow?  Well it will be cold as it hits but more cool as it reaches the South East:-)

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2 minutes ago, karyo said:

The UKMO places the Azores high further west and the trough digging better into Iberia. Ironically, the gfs would be colder though.

Sorry K thats not correct here are the 850s at 144

GFS

gfs-1-144.png?0

UKMO

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

UKMO only goes to 144 but its quite noticeably colder than gfs..

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I no lot folk are banging on about the cold from the north west but the cold pool to east looks very  impressive.

IMG_0362.GIF

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3 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

I no lot folk are banging on about the cold from the north west but the cold pool to east looks very  impressive.

IMG_0362.GIF

For a cold pool in January that's really a pansy one to be honest! And pretty pointless without the Synoptics to bring it to our shores.

 

Understandable excitement from our NW contingent on here today, been a decent winter for you lot... colder NW weather is normally not a lot more reliable than our phantom easterlies! Not that us southern contingent are jealous...:angry::rofl:

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9 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

Can’t remember the date in the archives but there is 1 chart with a -10c into Ireland & Wales with a WSW flow ! 

Did it not happen in early Dec 2010, after the initial northerly burst , but before the north easterly set in, when the low dropped over England.?

MIA

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