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Model output discussion - into 2018


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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Isn't that what fees the cold westerly  over the UK for 3 or 4 days.

Yes mate but we need some retrogression otherwise it will flatten out and it wont look pretty ..

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like coolish zonality: temps between about 5 and 8C with some showers. I can hardly wait!:help:

h850t850eu.png

Snow for the midland North a possibility:wink:

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10 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Looks like coolish zonality: temps between about 5 and 8C with some showers. I can hardly wait!:help:

h850t850eu.png

With uppers between - 4 and - 8 probably even a bit colder like 0-4 C, so more like sleet, hail and freezing rain, right? 

Edited by ArHu3
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GEM day 10 is not without interest (yes I know its the GEM and I know it is day 10) but this kind of solution is very much in the envelope...

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

Edited by mulzy
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Just now, mulzy said:

GEM day 10 is not without interest (yes I know. its the GEM and I know it is day 10) but this kind of solution is very much in the envelope...

GEMOPEU12_240_1.png

Again, looks fab from a NH perspective with one massive problem, its purple and its way to the NW..

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Again, looks fab from a NH perspective with one massive problem, its purple and its way to the NW..

It's not a problem when it's that far away, as long as it steers clear from Greenland 

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Well, how about that for a Atlantic surge from UKMO. Backs GFS to the Hilt at 144t. No continental flow or block by weekend on this latest output. Could be a bit too progressive.

C

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

Edited by carinthian
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37 minutes ago, Weather toad said:

Week 3 average, week 4 slightly above. No access to Strat charts unfortunately. I’ll PM you the link when I’m back from work. 

ECM monthly sounds like a repeat of last week - except shifted back yet another week! Keeps trying to go mild in the long term but failing. Opposite of last year!!

Onto the UKMO ... rather different from yesterday's 12Z up north - so not even the UKMO can keep its consistency at the moment:

UW120-21.GIF?08-17  UW144-21.GIF?07-12

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

gfs-2-288.png?12

Very heavy rain with snow on the Northern Edge..... This pattern lends its self to this this type of setup.

I'd expect evaporative cooling to turn some of that to snow

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gemnh-0-240.png?12GEM 240

ECH1-240.GIF?08-12ECM 240

gfsnh-0-240.png?12GFS 240

GFS makes more of Heights and ridging toward Iberia which shifts the  trough disruption further North. There's always one.

Edited by winterof79
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Just now, winterof79 said:

gemnh-0-240.png?12GEM 240

ECH1-240.GIF?08-12ECM 240

gfsnh-0-240.png?12GFS 240

GFS makes more of Heights toward Iberia whch shifts trough disruption further North. There's always one.

GEM is much better than GFS thats for sure..

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Not the most exciting of GFS runs, I have to say...That said, the cold zonality might be cold enough to provide one or two pleasant surprises...The possible back-end topplers? Well, what day14 predictions ever materialise...?

h850t850eu.png

Edited by Ed Stone
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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hope it doesn't sound like im moaning, im not.

The PM flow looks OK on GFS ,  but i'm looking for retrogression in the Atlantic to bring a Greeny high and bring a deep freeze with blizzards and 6 feet icicles 

:crazy:

You Moan.....Never:D

C.S

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14 minutes ago, Snowbogey said:

Just out of hospital so missed a lot I have HCL so was rather hoping for an epic snow event as I don't know how many winters I have left lol but the models are all over the place I think 72hrs is about as far as we can reliably look forward ....at least I have 62/63 in the bag!:cold:

o man i'm so sorry to hear that- really hope you will be ok :)

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21 minutes ago, Snowbogey said:

Just out of hospital so missed a lot I have HCL so was rather hoping for an epic snow event as I don't know how many winters I have left lol but the models are all over the place I think 72hrs is about as far as we can reliably look forward ....at least I have 62/63 in the bag!:cold:

I'm sure you will have plenty winters left mate, ecm snow fest we can hope ?☸️☸️☸️?

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