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Model output discussion - into 2018


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I don't ever comment on the models and what they show on here so be gentle. To me none of the models have got this right yet after days 4-6, what is obvious is that this high over Scandi is not budging anywhere quickly though.

The UKMO has been resolute holding the block but not finding a clean route for the lows to travel into mainland Europe - it does however hold the high in place without any sinking showing that it believes the most likely scenario is for this to remain roughly in place. This has been consistent now for days and most of the other models have been moving towards it evolution recently.

I think the word battleground is not a bad description but not a battleground which is a snowy one (yet anyway).

This could go anyway but in my opinion based on what I can see in the daily output over the last days + some (small) knowledge of prior history of these setups I don't think we have yet seen any model show us the likely correct direction of travel, I also believe that this holding pattern could stretch for a few more days yet with the UKMO for example spilling out the same picture for days 4-6 until it finds the right solution. 

Whilst it holds the pattern, in fact the longer this picture holds in my opinion the more likelihood or chances are that we could get the trough disruption into Europe and find the easterly and cold.

Just my thoughts.

 

 

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An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

Posted Images

For clarity, I’m by no means saying I think an easterly is nailed on, I’d say it’s 50-50 at the moment. That’s probably being a little cautious. 

Edited by karlos1983
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Well a real vast array of differing opinions this afternoon on the latest GFS & UKMO runs.

My take would be the UKMO still looks very good, the Scandi block at 120 is well orientated and looks pretty strong. History tells us in these situations computer models always try to shift these setups far too easily, I would not be surprised as we move closer in time that we see the block further west and energy being forced under.

UN120-21.thumb.GIF.418a8d4c933410881e1a4b6c739735eb.GIF

The GFS on the other hand not as good at 120. The high not aswell defined, quite flabby around the edges and is already coming under pressure from the north west.

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.9ec277b67016bc1e5151fef9b03f4fc1.png

Which eventually gives way to the Atlantic barging through from a chilly North West.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.2ee8e4d8859097cecba83908787490bc.png

However as I've already said above is the Atlantic going to blast through this easily in the first place?

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1 minute ago, Dancerwithwings said:

850's Looks the same.....aren't we suppose to progress run by run or am I doing something wrong :unsure2: 

0z   UN144-7_eza2.GIF    and twelve hrs later..... 12z   UN144-7_lfo4.GIF

Exactly! If anything the cold uppers to the east have shrunk a bit.

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44 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

UKMO 144 is a bit of a downgrade it has to be said.

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

Don’t think so. 

Cold air making inroads West. 

Why do you think it is a poorer chart? 

Edit Already answered. ?

Edited by Spah1
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16 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

I’d like to know how on earth we get to a 10% chance of an easterly given what the UKMO has shown consistently for the last few runs... :cc_confused:

If the answer is gfs then that’s a joke, it’s shown more outcomes than I care to remember. 

Well for a start none of the UKMO output is anywhere near the reliable time frame. Remember that we have had cross model agreement on easterly outbreaks at +72 only for it to go wrong. And with GFS saying no, that adds to the uncertainty.

Like it or not, the Easterly is still very much a long shot at this stage. If there is a good ECM tonight, then the odds improve slightly.

Edited by Djdazzle
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15 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO 850's show the cold incoming across Europe. 

  • 120 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions 144 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

This is clearly still not resolved, but given the relative stubbornness of the UKMO, along with GFS evolving towards it, we are still in with a shout.  More than can be said for recent winters. 

 

So close.-12hpa knocking on the door.Will it get here.Looking at past Easterly attempts recently,you would have to say no I’m afraid.There is a chance,but need to see it again looking like that in the next model runs.Put it this way,would you put money on the Easterly winning out.

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Like for like GFS in 24 hours from this time yesterday 

12z 06/01/18                                              12z 07/01/18 

5a524d08ac20b_gfs-0-168archive.thumb.png.be03bad231ea055ba21319a692bd5954.png5a524d2606aad_gfs-0-144today.thumb.png.cdf7d49b6db73a7cc27aeac62c87d6e4.png

168 yesterday                                            144 today

Thats  a WHOPPING  great big difference in just 24 hrs , lots to be resolved..!! 

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2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

For clarity, I’m by no means saying I think an easterly is nailed on, I’d say it’s 50-50 at the moment. That’s probably being a little cautious. 

50-50 although no model shows the easterly making it here?

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5 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

For clarity, I’m by no means saying I think an easterly is nailed on, I’d say it’s 50-50 at the moment. That’s probably being a little cautious. 

Just for clarity we have an Easterly/ NE flow over the country today, it's just not the type of Easterly most are looking for, eg snow & deeper cold.

Edited by FiftyShadesofWine
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1 minute ago, karyo said:

Exactly! If anything the cold uppers to the east have shrunk a bit.

That's because of the 12h difference in time, uppers warm up a little during the day and cool during the night 

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3 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

850's Looks the same.....aren't we suppose to progress run by run or am I doing something wrong :unsure2: 

0z   UN144-7_eza2.GIF    and twelve hrs later..... 12z   UN144-7_lfo4.GIF

Yes and cold pool not as good as the 0z, whilst the UKMO is still very good my initial thought when viewing it was slight downgrade. (don't hit me)

With UKMO showing poss easterly and GFS showing poss cold zonality we will probably end up middle ground in no man lands knowing our luck.

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24 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Look at the jet forecast, it'll stop egg on face later. The 06z was poor because it took it further north and barrelled through the UK whereas before it hit the south only. This time, for the 12z GFS it's even further north so NW to SE is becoming W to E and that's a big step backwards by 162h.

You're right southern UK has had its fair share of severe gales along with frequent heavy rain this week, if the jet keeps going north so does the bulk of rain & gales allowing the south to dry out a bit and it would certainly be a big relief for those residents in Portreath Cornwall who are now without part of their harbour wall to keep the sea out :angry:

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2 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

That's because of the 12h difference in time, uppers warm up a little during the day and cool during the night 

I don't think that's right, especially not in January with the weak sun.

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Just now, Djdazzle said:

Well for a start none of the UKMO output is anywhere near the reliable time frame. Remember that we have had cross model agreement on easterly outbreaks at +72 only for it to go wrong. And with GFS saying no, that adds to the uncertainty.

Like it Irma not, the Easterly is still very much a long shot at this stage. If there is a good ECM tonight, then the odds improve slightly.

We will have to agree to disagree here, ecm hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. UKMO has been consistent. 

GFS .... I’m not even going to comment on. Other than it’s been moving more and more toward the ukmo almost with each run. 

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

I don't think that's right, especially not in January with the weak sun.

Look at icon (it has a lot of frames so easy to see)  850hpa temps and see how they darken during the night 

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1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

We will have to agree to disagree here, ecm hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. UKMO has been consistent. 

GFS .... I’m not even going to comment on. Other than it’s been moving more and more toward the ukmo almost with each run. 

If an Easterly is showing at less than T+96 I’ll be interested!

But you can’t call this anywhere’s near to 50:50. There are far more ways to end up without the Easterly than with!

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1 minute ago, vizzy2004 said:

Yes and cold pool not as good as the 0z, whilst the UKMO is still very good my initial thought when viewing it was slight downgrade. (don't hit me)

With UKMO showing poss easterly and GFS showing poss cold zonality we will probably end up middle ground in no man lands knowing our luck.

I'm getting bored now with this idea/hearing of the endless definite possibilities of an immanent beastly/easterly on it's way...AS SUCH.... with no show...:lazy:

If the ECM doesn't show promise this evening I'm giving up......Well for a bit :whistling::D

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10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

We will have to agree to disagree here, ecm hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory in recent days. UKMO has been consistent. 

GFS .... I’m not even going to comment on. Other than it’s been moving more and more toward the ukmo almost with each run. 

Don't tell us karlos, mate - the GFS is still in police custody, for for having moidered the last dose of Snowmageddon? Whatever happened to habeus corpus!:D

 

Edited by Ed Stone
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6 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

If an Easterly is showing at less than T+96 I’ll be interested!

But you can’t call this anywhere’s near to 50:50. There are far more ways to end up without the Easterly than with!

Ok then 49:51 

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Just for clarity the UKMO doesn’t show an easterly. At the end (144hrs) it actually shows a light southerly. It’s possible if it went further it could develop an easterly though.  The only run I have seen recently which showed a proper Easterly was last nights ECM ...fingers crossed it goes that way again tonight! 

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If the Easterly does arrive then the met must get rid of their further outlook forecasts that they publish.as they seem so confident it won’t happen in their latest update

seems they are ignoring their own model ,you CANNOT write off the Easterly with -12 hpa on the other side of the North Sea,surely ?.

Big drop in their credibility if it does arrive at the end of the week.

And big ECM coming ,will it push through the Atlantic like gfs does or hold it back.

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