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Model output discussion - into 2018

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1 minute ago, Johnp said:

The pattern is the same as the 00z run though, that's the main thing.  You're unlikely to get two consecutive identical runs (especially the UKMO 144 charts!)

But it's not AS good so a downgrade if only slight. Our wiggle is so tight and with the UKMO 12z it would only get smaller. I said it was still OK still better than the GFS.

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5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Why would you believe it versus a high res operational run, but not against the 20 low resolution patterns spewed out four times daily?

You answered your own question as far as I'm concerned.

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the cold displaced pm sourced air looks a better bet to me for cold and snowy weather, so let's hope this stale easterly does one shortly so we can get out of no mans land and get on with some real weather again

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2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Personally I think to the east is should be nicknamed as a "Sucker's High". It will suck us all in with "will it or won't it" with the models and before you know it about a fortnight of winter has gone and nothing to show for it except exasperation, hair pulling and "I won't fall for it next winter" at the end of it.

I couldn't agree more! If I lived in Germany or even Belgium I would be more keen on a Scandi high but here we are at the end of the line and more often than not we fail to get any benefit from it.

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I don’t get all the enthusiasm for an Easterly when there is so little evidence to support it?

The UKMO 144 chart would surely go on to show the block sinking SE, with lots of pressure from the northern arm of the jet. No support from GFS either. Of course, things can trend better, but I still believe that the chance of an Easterly is no more than 10%. I’m more than happy for someone to convince me otherwise.

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15 minutes ago, Chris. said:

If people explained their reasonings behind their presumptions it would make the thread a lot better to those who dont understand fully whats going on.

 

What use is close to brilliant and downgrade all within 3 posts for the same model, same timeframe as doctor pointed out.

 

Justify your thoughts and helps everyone learn better or look at the reasoning for your comments good or bad.

I think it's safe to say if one person says it's Black someone else will so 'no,it's white'!

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UKMO 850's show the cold incoming across Europe. 

  • 120 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions 144 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

This is clearly still not resolved, but given the relative stubbornness of the UKMO, along with GFS evolving towards it, we are still in with a shout.  More than can be said for recent winters. 

 

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At least the gfs gives us some cold zonality around 200 hours.

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slowly coming out of low res into high res - the new trend is upon us

gfs-2-192.png?12

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Just now, Ice Day said:

UKMO 850's show the cold incoming across Europe. 

  • 120 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions 144 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

This is clearly still not resolved, but given the relative stubbornness of the UKMO, along with GFS evolving towards it, we are still in with a shout.  More than can be said for recent winters. 

 

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

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Cold zonal express incoming again in GFS always nice to see let's see if heights can rise in Greenland area again.

Big ridge heading into arctic from west states along with big block to are east.:)

Screenshot_20180107-162756.png

Screenshot_20180107-162740.png

Screenshot_20180107-163157.png

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1 minute ago, karyo said:

At least the gfs gives us some cold zonality around 200 hours.

Yes K-

Looks like a strong polar maritime attack incoming!!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

I benefit more than most here from UKMO output, but I just think how disinterested the GEFS continues to be.

 

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I’d like to know how on earth we get to a 10% chance of an easterly given what the UKMO has shown consistently for the last few runs... :cc_confused:

If the answer is gfs then that’s a joke, it’s shown more outcomes than I care to remember. 

Edited by karlos1983

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15 minutes ago, ukpaul said:

Look at the jet forecast, it'll stop egg on face later. The 06z was poor because it took it further north and barrelled through the UK whereas before it hit the south only. This time, for the 12z GFS it's even further north so NW to SE is becoming W to E and that's a big step backwards by 162h.

By 192h, however, the jet miraculously dives south, saving the run at this point. Here's the comparison.

06z then 12z

gfsnh-5-192_hrh5.png  gfsnh-5-192_fab3.png

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

You're not wrong!!!  I'm thoroughly enjoying this spell of model watching as we are entering a fairly rare synoptic set up which I suspect ALL models will struggle with.  I would say anything outside of 84 hours is up for grabs!

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2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes K-

Looks like a strong polar maritime attack incoming!!

500Hpa

76.png

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7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

It doesn’t matter if that initial deeper cold misses the UK. There’s enough cold to the east and se to deliver a snow event if the flow ahead of any precip is just se.

As long as that cold makes it far enough west before heading nw then your surface flow will deliver sub zero dew points.

As long as the upstream trough disrupts enough energy se at T168hrs  then it’s a guaranteed snow event for parts of the UK.

 

Edited by nick sussex

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Just compares this morning 132 hour chart on the gfs to the 12z 120 hour chart  and oh my word the atlantic is nearly 300 miles further west and the scandi high is way stronger aswell!!its ridiculous how much its changed in 12 hours!!has the beast been awoken?

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28 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Nothing wrong with varying opinions, be very boring if we all just agreed lol

UKMO 144 isn’t a downgrade, block edging west along with cold uppers, Atlantic pushing up against the block. Will it disrupt? Guess we will have to wait for the next most important run of the winter the 00z 😂

Quite agree. If people are looking for a single opinion and not a discussion, best to go on the Met Office site, the posters on here have always had varying opinions, some love cold, some mild and some are just concerned with what they get in their back yard.:)

 

Anyway, cold zonality returns on the 12z.

gfs-0-228.png

gfs-1-228.png

Edited by snowray

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1 minute ago, shaky said:

Just compares this morning 132 hour chart on the gfs to the 12z 120 hour chart  and oh my word the atlantic is nearly 300 miles further west and the scandi high is way stronger aswell!!its ridiculous how much its changed in 12 hours!!has the beast been awoken?

Was just thinking the same thing... I think it’s coming slowly but surely 

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9 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

UKMO 850's show the cold incoming across Europe. 

  • 120 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions 144 Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

This is clearly still not resolved, but given the relative stubbornness of the UKMO, along with GFS evolving towards it, we are still in with a shout.  More than can be said for recent winters. 

 

Look how close those really cold uppers are! Wouldn’t take much westward adjustment to bring us into the game.

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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

I don’t get all the enthusiasm for an Easterly when there is so little evidence to support it?

The UKMO 144 chart would surely go on to show the block sinking SE, with lots of pressure from the northern arm of the jet. No support from GFS either. Of course, things can trend better, but I still believe that the chance of an Easterly is no more than 10%. I’m more than happy for someone to convince me otherwise.

Spot on IMHO. Brave post in here but I'm thinking the same thing. 

Its not like last year where the position was utterly hopeless and I think the block will prove more resilient, but as weather history suggests its more likely a suckers high. Cool and dry away from the NW is much more likely than a snowy convective easterly. Its more mid latitude than HLB blocking as has been the way for several years now. 

How I'd love to be proved wrong! A good old fashioned easterly would be great :). If the determination on this forum mattered we would be in business!!

 

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1 minute ago, CK1981 said:

Look how close those really cold uppers are! Wouldn’t take much westward adjustment to bring us into the game.

Exactly, 30 x miles per run, 2 x runs per day, 6 x days to go = 360 miles further west and, hey presto, we're all in the game.  Simples....you can thank me later.

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats going to be the mother of all letdowns if it fails at 168- -12 uppers approaching the north sea at 144!

850's Looks the same.....aren't we suppose to progress run by run or am I doing something wrong :unsure2: 

0z   UN144-7_eza2.GIF    and twelve hrs later..... 12z   UN144-7_lfo4.GIF

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