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Model output discussion - into 2018

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2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Is that not warmer than average ?

yes 

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Just now, Dennis said:

yes 

sorry dennis, that was yesterdays- 216 this morning looks cold.

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

sorry dennis, that was yesterdays- 216 this morning looks cold.

i see thnx

89.png

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ECM ENS - I wonder if any will get that beast to our shores

Edited by Ali1977

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Just now, Dennis said:

i see thnx

89.png

Much better 😃

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18 minutes ago, Dennis said:

im sry i do not see at the moment a good sign of a blocking.......no true easterly later this week

89.png

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I wouldn’t bother looking at NMM that’s used within very short range it is quite efffective in ‘micro’ elements of forecasting from where the snow boundary is for instance from a channel low. 

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EU snow depth charts show some decent accumulations in NW Britain but are not great for everyone else really.

Basically we are looking to the north west for colder uppers- there is no easterly really this morning.

Fascinating model watching tho- could do with GFS changing its tune but in some ways it ends up very similar to EC by day 10...

Edited by northwestsnow

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EU snow depth charts show some decent accumulations in NW Britain but are not great for everyone else really.

Basically we are looking to the north west for colder uppers- there is no easterly really this morning.

for coming week not much to expect snow - better rounds we start a next weekend

7.png

Edited by Dennis

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Just now, Dennis said:

for coming week not much to expect snow

7.png

Yes - it gets colder from day 8 onwards :)

Still, plenty of twists and turns to come..

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EU snow depth charts show some decent accumulations in NW Britain but are not great for everyone else really.

Basically we are looking to the north west for colder uppers- there is no easterly really this morning.

Technically, no we’d be mightily unlucky to miss out on v cold uppers on UKMO. ECM very almost does it albeit it takes more time and doesn’t quite get there. Cold easterlies definitely not off table. 

325CEA24-F831-44F4-A6BD-5185F9FED093.thumb.gif.78a6fec219126fcf7d11d52f3c68bd16.gif

Edited by Daniel*

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Technically, no we’d be mightily unlucky to miss out on v cold uppers on UKMO. ECM very almost does it albeit it takes more time and doesn’t quite get there. Cold easterlies definitely not off table. 

325CEA24-F831-44F4-A6BD-5185F9FED093.thumb.gif.78a6fec219126fcf7d11d52f3c68bd16.gif

Could do with that scandy block being a little further west- small changes will have huge ramifications -

Exeters update will be interesting!! Hope its an improvement on yesterdays :)

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17 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

ECM ENS - I wonder if any will get that beast to our shores

It’s the least we deserve will be interesting to see what’s wheeled out.. 8) lets make a pact and offer knocker for sacrifice :D for blasphemy and imprudence to the cold gang. :crazy:

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Could do with that scandy block being a little further west- small changes will have huge ramifications -

Exeters update will be interesting!! Hope its an improvement on yesterdays :)

The issue is the vortex over Greenland....now if we can get a blend of ukmo at 144 with gfs at 180.......

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from the NW very cold air ......... and a strong atlantic high building tries pushing to north

65.png

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Could do with that scandy block being a little further west- small changes will have huge ramifications -

Exeters update will be interesting!! Hope its an improvement on yesterdays :)

Agreed. As they say bigger isn’t always better it’s more liable to sinking..

DE20BEC5-6670-4975-8D59-A3D53DEE6498.thumb.gif.f9204110ca8143aaa557af27005653b3.gif5E864257-DAEA-4DC9-9A87-EE709ACFCE31.thumb.png.7e0c411665eddb703b48fb90a71b7eb0.png

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13 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Well ECM pushes through a little bit we all now how progressive it’s been in the last 48 hours

to prove that I have the last 3 Debilt ENS saves T2M - look for a significant drop today @9am!!

UKMO top of the charts today - still-

eagerly awaiting the 168 FWIW.

edit UKMOWOW also has shortwave energy dropping SE @144...

This one? Wrong chart the second one? Or the third chart just to the sw of us?:D

Edit this one SM? Can't get rid off the other two charts.

 

IMG_0327.PNG

 

 

IMG_0325.PNG

IMG_0326.PNG

Edited by That ECM

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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Agreed. As they say bigger isn’t always better it’s more liable to sinking..

DE20BEC5-6670-4975-8D59-A3D53DEE6498.thumb.gif.f9204110ca8143aaa557af27005653b3.gif5E864257-DAEA-4DC9-9A87-EE709ACFCE31.thumb.png.7e0c411665eddb703b48fb90a71b7eb0.png

Excellent charts Daniel- you can see clearly ukmo is further west with the block (only slightly) , but that could make a huge difference with the Atlantic -

FWIW i think the ukmo run would be better for easterly chances at 168 :)

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Great to see the ukmo is persisting with this, the easterly dream is still alive and kicking!:):cold-emoji:..the drama goes on..the plot thickens etc:D

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

UKMOPNH00_144_1.png

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10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent charts Daniel- you can see clearly ukmo is further west with the block (only slightly) , but that could make a huge difference with the Atlantic -

FWIW i think the ukmo run would be better for easterly chances at 168 :)

Yes, I’d like to encourage more of you to use ‘Cartes Europe (LCC)’ provides a broader canvas. You can gather much more ‘information’, I’d like to also reaffirm the talk of sacrifice is banter.

https://www.meteociel.com/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=72&mode=1&map=8&type=0&archive=0

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EVM mean at 96 looks good to me 

53402938-6E70-4044-B534-58AFB05944C8.png

Edited by Ali1977

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6 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Great to see the ukmo is persisting with this, the easterly dream is still alive and kicking!:):cold-emoji:..the drama goes on..the plot thickens etc:D

UKMOPEU00_144_1.png

UKMOPNH00_144_1.png

850Hpa 

09.gif

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22 minutes ago, That ECM said:

This one? Wrong chart the second one? Or the third chart just to the sw of us?:D

Edit this one SM? Can't get rid off the other two charts.

 

IMG_0327.PNG

 

 

IMG_0325.PNG

IMG_0326.PNG

Yes UKMO 144

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5 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

EVM mean at 96 looks good to me 

53402938-6E70-4044-B534-58AFB05944C8.png

Better than the operational !

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Well to me the EC mean shows quite a cold north westerly signal longer term- could be very exciting for those in NW Britan esp :)

EDH1-240.GIF?07-12

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