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Model output discussion - into 2018


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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    6 hours ago, winterof79 said:

    Hence why the professionals still show the risk of snow/snow events and why we should all concentrate a little more on 5 days at most. Trends thereafter like a building arctic high and dissolving PV over Canada

    gfsnh-0-192.png?6

    gfsnh-0-288.png?6

    The trend continues this pm on GFS and a rapid cooling to our N/E

    gfsnh-0-276.png?12

    gfsnh-1-300.png?12

    Edited by winterof79
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    An ode to the model output thread... "In days of old, when Thatcher was bold and Kettley was a weatherman, Tales are told of winters cold, and snow lay everywhere, man.   The World Wide Web

    We should rename thread the ‘miserable git’ thread -  So much negativity & misery in here I’m surprised people even make it out of bed. updated 06z JMA joins the euro party to 84

    Find 1 post that I said it would be a convective Easterly - The problem with you ( & many others ) is you read one thing but assume another. The forecast was a blend of the GEM / ECM 

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
    3 hours ago, markw2680 said:

    Would normally pretty much agree with this but I just feel the models actually don’t have a clue what’s going to happen next week, they will look completely different come Sunday for next week I’m pretty sure of that

    You might be right there Mark, its not over yet it would seem.

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    gfsnh-0-264.png

    gfsnh-1-264.png

    gfsnh-0-312.png

    gfsnh-1-312.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Some v-notable polar maritime air....

    This unusual winter  looks to become more unlikely as we progress!?

    Pm shots are oddly looking our best chance of cold.

    And with plenty of systems fired towards the uk its an' interesting evolution.

    Edit;

    And just one of a possible few evolutions for getting winter proper into our shores.

     

    gfsnh-1-240.png

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    That is one big block and with the aid of WAA the energy has only one way to go as the Arctic high rears its head and it is not two weeks away 

    gfsnh-0-174.png?12GFS

    Modele UKMO - Carte prévisionsUKMO ahead of the game at144z

    and for reference it is the ICON below at 180z

    iconnh-0-177.png?05-12

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    Posted
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Sunny Summers/Cold Wintry Winters
  • Location: Wrexham,NE Wales - 89m
    8 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    Was that a FL SSW ?? Or near to one 

    Not quite i think you are looking for the red colours on the 10hpa charts unless i'm not mistaken i'm no expert though. 

    Should look like something like this - http://images.meteociel.fr/im/3144/gfsnh-2012122800-10-192_mzr4.png

    Edited by Summerstorm
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    Posted
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
  • Location: Binfield, Berkshire
    10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Some v-notable polar maritime air....

    This unusual winter  looks to become more unlikely as we progress!?

    Pm shots are oddly looking our best chance of cold.

    And with plenty of systems fired towards the uk its an' interesting evolution.

    Edit;

    And just one of a possible few evolutions for getting winter proper into our shores.

     

    gfsnh-1-240.png

    More wet snow and slush for us in the south if that comes to fruition ?

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    4 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    Was that a FL SSW ?? Or near to one 

    Not close yet (and certainly not close at 16 days out!) 

    tbh, I’m of the opinion that an SSW end jan is far more likely to bring a cold miserable spring than it is to bring proper winter in Feb .....

    but then I’m a miserable old git !

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Getting a tad toasty up top, that would be some call from Chio if it plays out like this, I’m sure he said start of a warming event 20th Jan, hats off sir! :hi:

    D6C1C793-82B2-45D6-A00F-5D3723F72E9C.thumb.png.ae57848159fdeef4e09050bc909936de.png

     

    Beilliant 12z so far. I was quite shocked, I don’t know why, I should know better by now. Come on ECM show us where the UKMO is heading at 168 please 

     

    Edited by karlos1983
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Not close yet (and certainly not close at 16 days out!) 

    tbh, I’m of the opinion that an SSW end jan is far more likely to bring a cold miserable spring than it is to bring proper winter in Feb .....

    but then I’m a miserable old git !

    I had that exact same thought yesterday blue...

    Ideally you want to see a SSW late December time.

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oh dear! If charts like this start to appear on a regular basis, there'll be no need for nail clippers!:help:

    h850t850eu.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    Oh dear! If charts like this start to appear on a regular basis, there'll be no need for nail clippers!:help:

    h850t850eu.png

    That’s almost Crewe’s Sharon Stone I reckon :D

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Happy Birthday #stodge

    gfs-0-240.png?12

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Not close yet (and certainly not close at 16 days out!) 

    tbh, I’m of the opinion that an SSW end jan is far more likely to bring a cold miserable spring than it is to bring proper winter in Feb .....

    but then I’m a miserable old git !

    I think it is far more likely to bring a proper Easterly than we are likely to get in the next 2 weeks, the official date of SSW I think was 24th Jan 2009, I do believe that gave you your biggest tonking since Feb 1991 (at the time)- that's assuming you've been where you are now since then. If an SSW starts getting modelled inside the reliable (proper good one) then I will be the most excited I will have been for a number of years on this forum.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    I think it is far more likely to bring a proper Easterly than we are likely to get in the next 2 weeks, the official date of SSW I think was 24th Jan 2009, I do believe that gave you your biggest tonking since Feb 1991 (at the time)- that's assuming you've been where you are now since then. If an SSW starts getting modelled inside the reliable (proper good one) then I will be the most excited I will have been for a number of years on this forum.

    2009 featured a QTR didn't it?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    2009 featured a QTR didn't it?

    Sorry - whats a Q.T.R?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Sorry - whats a Q.T.R?

    Quick trop response

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    2009 featured a QTR didn't it?

     A QTR? What's that?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    2009 featured a QTR didn't it?

    Could we not get one this year?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, ShortWaveHell said:

    But even then a SSW isn’t a magic bullet is it ? This country seems to live on the premise ‘if it can go wrong it will go wrong’ 

    Apparently it gives you a 2 in 3 chance of a UK cold spell - not my words - John Hammonds on a video the last time we had a warming in the Middle of winter (2013)

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Radiating Dendrite said:

     A QTR? What's that?

    Quick Tropospheric Response

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    4 minutes ago, ShortWaveHell said:

    A rally car 

    No that's a quattro:wink:

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, winterof79 said:

    Could we not get one this year?

    No idea until any SSW is modelled repeatedly and narrowed in lead time. It's a bit of a lottery.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    Quick Tropospheric Response

    Yes it must have been practically instant, and so was the 2013 Jan one - 6th Jan SSW, Jan teens - cold spell arrives.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Flash Gordon is hanging on by his finger tips and hasn't been thrown off the ledge yet!

    Just enough mileage left in the current easterly fiasco to keep us interested. The easterly non-event is likely to remain so unless theres some huge turnaround however its the jet angle into the UK that's more the issue now and whether a lobe of high pressure can hold onto the north east and help divert the jet se.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    No idea until any SSW is modelled repeatedly and narrowed in lead time. It's a bit of a lottery.

    Would be nice but as you say lets see how and if it gets toasty.

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