Model output discussion - into 2018

[markw2680]

Why do we all get so hung up over each and every run? There’s loads of time and runs for things to change for the better or worse! It’s all about getting the theme/trend whatever you want to call it, bigger picture not every run etc. There will be so many more changes let’s just enjoy the ride

[nick sussex]

The block needs to be further north even than whats shown tonight to exert more forcing on the upstream trough.  The shortwave you see running north around T126hrs will take too much energy over the block and allow the upstream trough to approach at an unfavourable angle.

 

[terrier]

Mr murr get your I phone back on charge. The gfs 18z has us back in the game. Hopefully something to build on for tomorrow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Huge upgrade?   Well it's interesting to see the gfs swing back a bit but it could go back to where the 12z was on the 00z. Worth seeing how many scandi highs are showing on the ens re trends. 

Are we going to lose the connection of the scandi surface high from the se European high?  the ec 46 is nowhere near showing any sign of winter so would be nice to see a block delvelop somewhere which will aid the cold establishing and hanging around 

We're past the point of no return for the initial E'ly now I'd say. However, days 8+ are not sorted. You'd have to put the money on a visit from the Atlantic in some shape or another but I'm still not 100% sure of what form this will take...could be anything from a TM SW'ly, polar NW'ly or a transient continental undercut!

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, ITSY said:

Not posted in a while but very intrigued by this evenings GFS. The far reaches of high res suggesting it could be a second bite at the cherry for the slider, if it comes to fruition. Bets on ECM going full blown zonal at midnight? Quite high ?

The ecm is a twilight saga not a midnight one

[Purga]

The Arctic High is trying hard to ridge down and join up with the Scandi - and draw the Scandi north. All too far to the east at the moment but let's be grateful for small mercies"

[comet]

10 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

How on earth this didn’t slide is beyond me...

Further runs and adjustments as the models come to realise that there is much more amplification In the pattern ahead. This extra amplification dictating how things  evolve. The vortex is forecast to split up to the 30mb level. expect to see further amplification in future runs.

[Duane S.]

Stronger block here, flexing its muscles. Ye shalt not pass.

Not perfect by any means but the slide towards a no mans land or worse scenario has been halted for now and reversed a tad. It wouldn’t take too many differences upstream to allow the high to edge a bit further north and west and tilt it a bit better. The interaction with the polar heights have worked in our favour as well here.

The start of a trend? Or a blip?? Wouldn’t this place be dull if we all knew the answer to that one! ?

Edited January 4, 2018 by s4lancia

[pureasthedriven]

2 minutes ago, Purga said:

The Arctic High is trying hard to ridge down and join up with the Scandi - and draw the Scandi north. All too far to the east at the moment but let's be grateful for small mercies"

Yes, that was what I alluded to earlier in this run. Pretty sure the Feb 91 event had the AH nosing south to hold hands - albeit as you say, further west. 

[andymusic]

The Dawn of a new ice age and snow nirvana in FI

[Ice Day]

Well maybe, just maybe, the pendulum is starting to swing back in the favour of cold.  If we can get those heights further north a new pattern could emerge.  Perhaps tonight's output is just a blip, maybe something more significant.  One thing's for sure, we'll all be back tomorrow!

This is showing for 6 days from today and is pretty close to excellent.  Maybe the tweaks will go our way for once!

 

[blizzard81]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

It’s back to chasing slush with a BBC reporter stuck on a hill espousing the next ice age as driving sleet bears down on the poor soul! 

I’ve looked at all 50 eps and needed to raid the drinks cabinet after !

 

Turning to drink isn't enough for me tonight . I have also had to watch life below zero whilst drinking it! 

[Daniel*]

15 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Huge upgrade?   Well it's interesting to see the gfs swing back a bit but it could go back to where the 12z was on the 00z. Worth seeing how many scandi highs are showing on the ens re trends. 

Are we going to lose the connection of the scandi surface high from the se European high?[/b]  the ec 46 is nowhere near showing any sign of winter so would be nice to see a block delvelop somewhere which will aid the cold establishing and hanging around 

Perhaps a bit of an exaggeration but day and night really to 12Z. It’s so much better OK not perfect. That’s key uppers may be OK for flurries in the east nothing substantial being signalled for now.

[feb1991blizzard]

A right belting.

Edited January 4, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, andymusic said:

The Dawn of a new ice age and snow nirvana in FI

I would rather watch paint dry if that comes off....

[booferking]

Cold zonal from 240hr for 6 days dumpings of snow and 850s that won't make it marginal yes please.

[mulzy]

GEFS also better at day 4. 

The fightback begins now!!

Edited January 4, 2018 by mulzy

[bluearmy]

There are loads of eps clusters throughout - I think that means the model is struggling to pin down where it should be headed. It could be that a drift towards climatology should be expected in such a situation.  

[Purga]

An 'interesting' run (Steve Davis almost ).

A zonal mild-fest it ain't for sure!

 

PS: A more tastey European snow cover in far FI as well

Edited January 4, 2018 by Purga

[Met4Cast]

So after days of trashing the GFS for not showing good charts, it's suddenly the best model out there because it's showing an improvement? Interesting.

18z is a step back in the right direction but it's still not brilliant, a lot of energy still going into the Northern arm.

[northwestsnow]

Just popping in..working again.

Hi gfs ...can we be fwiends again..

Only kidding..but lets hope for 00z upgrades

[shaky]

7 minutes ago, mulzy said:

GEFS also better at day 4. 

The fightback begins now!!

I did say earlier that there are pretty big changes on the icon early before even the gfs came out!!lets build on this in the morning hopefully!

[joggs]

Pub run suddenly becomes everyone's favourite uncle even though through experience everybody has learnt not to listen to all the sh*t it spews lol.

Edited January 4, 2018 by joggs

[feb1991blizzard]

Much better ensembles by 138 - although that's going off the mean, I rarely check individual members before 168.

[snowbob]

To be fair 

isn’t this exactly what Steve m said would happen two days ago

 could be a great call IMO 

lets hope the pendulum will swing more and build for the coldies come the 0z

Edited January 4, 2018 by snowbob