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Model output discussion - into 2018

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Feeling it's gonna be a lovely cold 18z as it's been a pig of a model dayūü§óūü§óūü§ó

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Can't post pictures at the minute but gfs ensembles are a big upgrade with blocking to the north east with lows going under with big snow  events  there could be a surprise 18 z later..

I feel it AbbieūüĎĆūüĎĆ

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7 minutes ago, Dean E said:

This forum has always been a great place to be, but once a model changes its output, some members go into complete meltdown.

Wise words throughout your post. I guess the problem also revolves around expectations. When we see rubbish model outputs then we get justifiably excited about changes ahead. When, on the other hand, we are offered the prospects of a mouth-watering deep freeze, only to have that cruelly dashed, we get a tad fed up.

This is an exchange I had just yesterday morning, which feels like a lifetime in model watching ;) 

5a4e827ea3326_ScreenShot2018-01-04at19_36_53.thumb.png.aa8639c1a3ca350de5d242cace84cd20.png

We are going to have a bracing weekend and things may yet turn colder afterwards. I'm still encouraged, especially by the return of ensemble scatter in the GFS.

Edited by West is Best

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1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has high pressure over the UK and dry for most

ukm2.2018011112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4bfd8a6d5b8a5c5049bcc74d8b202cbf.png

Azores nosing in. Similar to ecm - unfortunately. 

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24 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

I was getting a little twinge of positivity there and then you mentioned NAVGEM lol

 

Mighty NAVGEM it’s my new favourite model. :crazy:

;)

Some quite good news 180 mean from GFS ensembles shows OP as too progressive.

37CDDF58-C446-4FB8-B9AA-21366E33F651.thumb.png.a46504519d9983aaf2d2e565cfe61bab.png V 6A2C4C78-C92C-448E-854E-07C7833F091B.thumb.png.894e8b5770346e5bc7b63c1952dd714c.png

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Sadly,  the EPS following the Det run with a much more progressive outlook - as ever the clusters will reveal all but this is trending the wrong way now...

Edited by mulzy

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Just now, mulzy said:

Sadly,  The EPS following the Det run with a much more progressive outlook - as ever the clusters will reveal all but this is trending the wrong way now...

What ensemble mean temperature anomaly is it in the extended range please?

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3 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Sadly,  the EPS following the Det run with a much more progressive outlook - as ever the clusters will reveal all but this is trending the wrong way now...

That's weird as I was about to post a much more upbeat assessment of the ecm mean. The alignment of the block to the east is much better in the 8 to 10 day range compared to this morning's mean and yesterday's 12z mean. These previous means saw the block sinking south east. 

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Not to disappointed in what looks likely another Easterly fail there was never true cold to tap into. Still looks like a battleground scenario could bring some snowfall with a few minor tweaks. We need to get the cold uppers into Europe then hope we can get a true easterly later on. Still see plenty of PM incursions and cold Zonality can still deliver for most. Still 7 weeks of Drama to come hope you all get some snow.

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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's weird as I was about to post a much more upbeat assessment of the ecm mean. The alignment of the block to the east is much better in the 8 to 10 day range compared to this morning's mean and yesterday's 12z mean. These previous means saw the block sinking south east. 

I’m hoping you’re correct on this one, however I think it’s dead and buried before day 8..

Edited by Ali1977

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's weird as I was about to post a much more upbeat assessment of the ecm mean. The alignment of the block to the east is much better in the 8 to 10 day range compared to this morning's mean and yesterday's 12z mean. These previous means saw the block sinking south east. 

Agreed with a mean like this it’s hard to tell the direction of travel. I bet there is a good cluster, however certaintly not to be the biggest but there is certaintly hope to see better things. 

24F29AC6-801F-4A4C-8519-93AD60D30AE0.thumb.png.f5e3230e8e8a67665094f2fb892f9f5c.png9B255C5C-19F7-4736-810B-058FA5E5D4AE.thumb.png.35411826364f9bf5f6e1e08bb8339a39.png

Edited by Daniel*

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Looking at the latest models I can't see anything particularly wintry on the way, yes a colder weekend coming up but still reaching 7c 45f in the S / SE and then next week it becomes a bit milder at times, especially in the South but still with some rather cold weather at times as we sit between atlantic lows trying to push in but making only erratic progress due to the cold block further east. The GEFS 12z mean indicates a more zonal westerly pattern becoming established beyond next week with spells of wet and windy weather but also cold enough at times for hill snow in the north and overnight frosts / ice during any short-lived quieter interludes.:)

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12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What ensemble mean temperature anomaly is it in the extended range please?

Average I would say - strong westerly flow in extended range - sure some PM influence at times. 

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image.thumb.png.d80e91a359efd978239f9005eb3733bb.png

Edited by winterof79

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Quick question, so hopefully a simple answer....re. 12z GFS, it looks odd T60 - T84 with the mixing out of T850's..... A 10 degree plus rise in the T850's within the Scandi HP  despite only a modicum of change both in positioning and orientation, what's the simple reason for this....inversion?...cheers

Edited by ajpoolshark

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.d80e91a359efd978239f9005eb3733bb.png

That's the 00z ensembles 

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14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

image.thumb.png.d80e91a359efd978239f9005eb3733bb.png

old 0z run

KNMI_expertpluim_De_Bilt_Temperatuur_201801041200.png

Edited by ArHu3

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13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

What ensemble mean temperature anomaly is it in the extended range please?

Here you go below couple snaps

image.thumb.png.c785b837cef80a89263aaded1b1297b9.pngimage.thumb.png.d137c6932fdf4fa557be43dbdee8ad49.png

 

 

 

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3 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

That's the 00z ensembles 

whoops:drunk-emoji:

 

Edited by winterof79

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1 hour ago, mulzy said:

"That ECM" was in a different league - that was painful!!!

This was the sequel that flopped at the box office!

 

The Phantom Menace of an Easterly this one ūüėģ

However what doesn't get mentioned a lot is after THAT ECM came Jan and March 2013, this seems to be forgotten and delivered for many.

 

I tell you what though, ¬†there's a few posters found Crewe's nipple jar tonight ūüėāūüėāūüėā

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GEFS Ensembles Chart

At the moment it appears 850's trending down again after middle of next week but the spread is quite wide.

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The ens trend on uppers is down on the back of pm incursions - it's not blocked! 

The pig is covered in lipstick at the moment ...............

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1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has high pressure over the UK and dry for most

ukm2.2018011112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4bfd8a6d5b8a5c5049bcc74d8b202cbf.png

It was obvious what was going to happen on the 144 chart.... 

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Who is ready for a crucial set of 18z GFS runs?!

It would be ironic if it turned it around

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