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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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11 minutes ago, Nick123 said:

At least I can get back on with my life now. This is the problem with model watching. It takes up a good part of your life and then you realise it's all been for nothing!! One of these days we will get lucky.... I hope!!!

It's nearly 5 years (18th-22nd Jan 2013) since I have had lying snow in south London (a truly pathetic stat!) - so even to get one day of lying snow will be worth it!

Sign of the times - anthropogenic forcing of the climate is having a huge impact on the number of snow days here.

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Seeing America more so the north warming up fills me with so much joy. That massive bit of displaced PV looks to be retreating back north. 

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It has to be said, the GFS ENS at 168 actually look pretty good, I’m still hanging in there that we haven’t quite got this correct yet !! Could we go from what’s showing now to a full on Easterly/Se’ly by 168 does anyone think, it that flip possible at this stage?? Could ECM have had this right a few days ago when showing those colder charts? 

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31 minutes ago, Hot & Sunny said:

GFS on the money.

Yesterday's & today's 

The MetO have also updated now with no wintry showers.

Roll on Spring and thunderstorms, nothing to see here.

 

 

 

 

 

a.png

aa.png

This is quite clearly a wind up as there are plenty of mentions of the word snow right out to 30 days. 

And why wish forward spring when there’s 7 weeks of winter left? It’s the 4th of Jan!

Edited by Paul_1978

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20 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

@mucka - pet hate of mine is over analysis and reliance on op runs post day 6/7. 

If we check what the eps mean was showing tues 12z we get this

C7D0C62E-B520-4784-8828-CB398947B196.thumb.jpeg.525fae00af0196511da92be012da50b1.jpeg

that looks like being close, especially if we compare with today’s  gefs 06z mean for the same time

085C2A42-01B9-447A-9679-6512B5FEEA8D.thumb.jpeg.615cbd47c02a436737459da57d94563f.jpeg

 

the moral of of the story is to look at ens means post day 6/7 rather than gfs and ec ops.  We don’t have all the clusters on all the models to assess like Exeter can. 

Rmemeber, what is evolving next week would be a pretty wintry scenario at the surface if the uppers had played ball. Nothing deeply cold required - just sub zero would have helped !

EDIT: and there is one thing worse than relying on ops post T168 and thats illustrating ens members as being of any significance!! I think they should only be used to illustrate things like the possibility of amplified patterns or split vortices or deep depressions - no detail at all as they are unlikely to be in the right locale with their broad upper pattern.

Agree with most of that and yes ensemble members should be used to illustrate possibilities or as examples of progressions one is describing, not as a forecast for what will happen.

All i would add is that trawling through the individual ensemble charts can be much more useful than an illustrated mean for forecasting potential pattern changes. One can sift through various progressions and with experience discern which are more likely and which less, where the trend may lie, whereas the ensemble mean may well just show neither one thing nor the other. sure sometimes we will get that but very often the trend is key, especially day 7+

 

Edited by Mucka

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Some people have asked about MOGREPS model outputs. Met Office will likely start publishing them from Spring 2018.

Quote

The underpinning MOGREPS-G ensemble was upgraded in July 2017 to a model grid resolution of 20km and 18 members in each 6-hourly cycle. The large increase in data volumes from this upgrade exceeds the capacity of our current data distribution infrastructure, but the full 18 members will become available for distribution on enhanced resolution grids via a new cloud based API pull platform in Spring 2018. In the meantime the benefits of enhanced resolution are available immediately through improved forecasts.

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/services/data-provision/big-data-drive/wholesale/categories/mogrepsg-user-guide

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NAVGEM 12z ( again ) carbon copy of UKMO

old fashioned Easterly 168-180

1B6EC0C4-9B64-416B-9647-28294E10C115.thumb.png.6eeb3f7ea6d5ff8e30430812b0a0188d.png9D9DC083-A7EC-4752-9095-7C4CE461023D.thumb.png.d6287b3407ffb6af5204fc45f2c72c49.pngACD580D4-A99F-4519-8173-D40A6B43A23A.thumb.png.513aeb9595bc5911da8c0255b557fc89.png

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21 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

I think CC said last night what many of us silently thought but didn't post because it would get shouted down by some posters in here, i.e a middle ground scenario between the model outputs is the most likely solution....notice, I said "likely" and not "definite".....The reason I think a middle ground is more likely is simple common sense if one stops, steps back and thinks for a few minutes....All model outputs are reliant on initial data which as we know is number crunched using super computers to give a prediction, with verification percentages dropping the further into the future the number crunching is run to....Seemingly in this current era of forecasting, model output is reasonable accurate for  up to T96-T120, after which the verfication %'s drop off markedly as small variations in earlier timescales manifest themseves exponetially at longer timscales....this, IMHO is why we see the medium and longer range model outputs showing more 'extreme' solutions at opposite ends of the synoptic scale, which will almost certainly never verify, and as the timescale is reduced on subsequent runs, the various model outputs start to show similar outputs and 'move together'.....in a nutshell, EMC & GFS may well show wildly differing outputs post T120ish, but as that timescale is reduced down to a reliable timeframe (i.e T48-72) all major model outputs will look remarkably similar!.............Look, I'm no expert, and am learning everyday, but the above, to me, is basic physics and common sense surely? :)

 

 

Makes perfect sense to me AJ...as I said last night it's really quite rare to see any one model being proved wholly correct and it is usually a blend which ultimately verifies.

Then again what would I know, as someone said last night, if I fell in a bucket of breasts I'd come out sucking my thumb :unknw:

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22 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Seeing America more so the north warming up fills me with so much joy. That massive bit of displaced PV looks to be retreating back north. 

That's what I noticed, at the very least it should take some oomph out of the jet meaning a decent break from the relentless gales and rain even if it doesn't snow! 

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I think the last one from me this evening, although I will check the ECM later and I honestly cross my fingers and toes for the UK dwellers.

Those mentioning an easterly on the GEFS at T156 or so completely then overlook the fact that not a single one of those goes on to deliver anything that could be classed as a cold easterly. Other GEFS members that show an even more influential Atlantic are not mentioned. Control is not quite as "bad" (depending how you look at it) as the Operational.

UKMO and NAVGEM have few similarities (well, its T144, likely to be some between models) and even the NAVGEM doesn't show a cold easterly and does show Atlantic influence edging closer as well in the later frames.

GEM also not interested in an easterly. 

This post might not be rampy enough. Ma Scuzati.

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Just now, TEITS said:

Just a quickie from me.

The UKMO +144 is a text book classic of a bitter E,ly developing beyond +144.

UN144-21.GIF?04-17

Just remember sometimes the building blocks take a while to become established. Rarely do I remember an E,ly bringing bitter cold temps straight away. Sometimes a benign period occurs prior to the beast arriving.

Looks very delicately poised at 144- wthe worry for me on that chart is the azores high which may push the jet north and flatten everything out, truth is, i'm not sure the models will know exactly how that will progress, letalone any of us..

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8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Just a quickie from me.

The UKMO +144 is a text book classic of a bitter E,ly developing beyond +144.

UN144-21.GIF?04-17

Just remember sometimes the building blocks take a while to become established. Rarely do I remember an E,ly bringing bitter cold temps straight away. Sometimes a benign period occurs prior to the beast arriving.

Totally Agree TEITS

big chunk going under on the 12z ECM 168 👍

similar to this

ECA72A47-987C-4CAA-B387-70606A2E0365.png

Edited by Weather toad

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Well here comes the ecm!!another good run or tears of boredom!!lets see!!need it to look just as good as ukmo!!

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Realtime updates on the models is not welcome in here by a few maybe some have been scared off but here goes block pushed slightly further east on ECM@96hr not as good compared to GFS & UKMO.

Untitled.png

Untitled.png

Untitled.png

Edited by booferking

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120 The key is that vertical WAA up towards the pole...

NB : no ones mentioned the Pacific high creeping over the pole in the last few runs...

12B83934-BC9D-40EC-B20B-85796E7EE272.thumb.png.a13cf3104bfd2b0ec6378c05f15597fa.png

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

120 The key is that vertical WAA up towards the pole...

NB : no ones mentioned the Pacific high creeping over the pole in the last few runs...

12B83934-BC9D-40EC-B20B-85796E7EE272.thumb.png.a13cf3104bfd2b0ec6378c05f15597fa.png

ECM & UKMO similar @144.   

Untitled.png

Edited by booferking

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Early doors t96 for comparison. UKMO looks the best option early on to me.

UN96-21.thumb.GIF.cc043547cc60d37d90106acd24b8a3f2.GIF

GEM & GFS fairly similar to each other.

gemnh-0-96.thumb.png.d52afd8d3e1a4ff3a66ccf0b6b0eb22f.pnggfsnh-0-96.thumb.png.509914d95880c5737b5b5f7315d30581.png

With Navgem & ECM closely matched

navgemnh-0-96.thumb.png.218d746f8def35bd404891cda4a799e8.pngECH1-96.GIF.thumb.png.1b36a1cc0aee88f7095acb1094b9fc59.png

 

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Here comes the Atlantic, another phantom Easterly from the Over-Amplifier bites the dust.

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Uppers aren’t cold but is that a possible snow event Tue evening as that front comes in from the West ?

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the Atlantic, another phantom Easterly from the Over-Amplifier bites the dust.

You're going to need the Atlantic making inroads if you want the slightest chance of something more than a dreary SE'ly. 144 is slider gate 3 electric bogaloo and we all know who well the models model them...

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