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Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

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5 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

The ecm ops over the last few days look to have underestimated the energy in the Atlantic. This morning's run seems to rectify this. It is a move towards what the gfs has been showing for a while now. I don't think anyone can deny this. 

I'll deny it.

The GFS didn't even want to give us a block in the first place because it always overestimates the Northern arm of the jet, always, always, always.

And of course the Atlantic will always win at some point and the GFS will be correct by default.

Edited by mountain shadow

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58 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Not a great start to the day and it could get ugly in here !

Two issues flatter upstream and lower heights to the north stop the high from shifting nw which lessens any trough disruption.

The ECM is better than the GFS but we have to be blunt and say the latter has got more right than wrong in the current set up, it did briefly start moving towards the more amplified solutions but left the party early which means we now have to survey the wreckage and try and find some crumbs of comfort!

I think we need to put whats happened in a box and move on and just take todays outputs at face value rather than spend the whole day in some slug fest between supporters of either the ECM or the GFS.

The problem is when you've been promised a trip to Monte Carlo and then end up finding out instead your going to Skegness its a bitter pill to swallow! Apologies to anyone from that region but its early and I couldn't think of anything else at this time!

So we've swallowed the pill and need to move on.

Now this is where I go into emergency crumbs of comfort mode!

The models still want to disrupt the trough to the west and pressure still remains high to the east, still some uncertainties about what level of cold will be on offer ahead of any fronts moving in from the west as that trough disruption occurs. Its clear overnight the other models picked up on that flattening upstream. The question is whether this trend will continue tonight in which case it could get uglier or whether there was some over reaction.

Trough disruption and where the energy goes is always a difficult juggling act for the models and so I think its best to take the view of being in a holding pattern today of reducing expectations but not throwing the towel in completely.

Wait for tonight and see what happens then. :cold-emoji:

 

Yes Nick, it’s scraps on Skeggy seafront (in more ways than one!) rather than seabass in the south of France if GFS turns out to be nearer the mark but the op is on the milder side of its ENS throughout the period that’s caught our interest over recent days and which remains some way in FI. Besides, Skeggy’s as good a place as any to witness an Easterly if one does eventually arrive!

 

 

t850Lincolnshire.png

Edited by supernova
Wording

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16 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

Yup and @comet we got even more cold than that forecast just a few hundred km east of your location, I would hardly call it a failed easterly, even if the cold did not get imby (but it did 😛) 

I did not realise you were Dutch. It was a failed easterly as far as the UK was concerned I remember met forecasts calling for deep cold and significant snowfall in the east of the country at first then becoming more widespread and affecting western regions as well. Unfortunately for the UK in general it did not materialise.

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Been looking at the ECM ensemble members and we're seeing the typical divergence with this kind of set up.

Either energy over the top or underneath. The mean value isn't really telling the true picture because of the vastly different outcomes depending on where that energy goes.

The members vary from excellent to good to downright ugly in terms of outcomes.

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12 minutes ago, The Eagle said:

ICOOPEU00_180_1.png

 

By 10 am this morning I predict ICON to be the world's premier model (replacing GEM from yesterday).

 

What the icon does is bring a shortwave north across into the low countries but then sort of joins up with one near russia and then helps funnel that cold even further west!!i think thats what we might need to keep the interest going!! 

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Worth noting the GFS operational is very much at the milder end and this is both for the UK and much further east into Europe. Even an outlier in terms of 2m temps later in the run.

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Just to get away from the 'will it, won't it' easterly discussion for a second, the main models all suggest that the PV will remain split apart for the next week at least with little sign of getting particularly organised.   This bodes well for continuing chances for variable conditions to happen in our part of the hemisphere some of which are likely to include cold incursions.  This is far from the last chance saloon as far as winter weather is concerned for the UK this winter.....

UKMO   image.thumb.gif.808d237d3ce356dd14f3780d43d239a7.gif

ECM      image.thumb.png.561468868155161f6d4cad7842b8f5cc.png

GFS       image.thumb.png.5774769aba27f0192868744973b1cdf5.png

GEM      image.thumb.png.cfbb3f72be30f4b0009d316b384cb836.png

Compare the above with 19 January 2017 and it's easy to see how much more interesting the current conditions are than last year (and previous years come to that). 

image.thumb.png.b9a99803240178bac97437c89147d43e.png

We are unlikely to get a 1962/63 type winter, that's clear, but it's so much better than the last three or four years so keep watching this space for exciting conditions yet to come!

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Ec mean isn't pretty from day 9 onwards- 

I'd be lying if i didn't say i was disappointed by the 00z runs- i'm sure most would agree.

Still time for upgrades- although thats mainly in hope rather than expectation..

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Want to know if things have taken a step backwards? LOMP tells you it has:D:D Lack Of Murr Posts:D

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I've never really bought into this, albeit I did get briefly tempted yesterday morning when the models seemed to want to converge around something colder. That said, its probably worth just waiting for the 12Z runs this afternoon before calling it. 

I tend to want to see more than one set of runs with agreement from the big three before I get too excited as otherwise we get a blended solution which is rarely good enough. 

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Best i could find this morning EC ENS 2 will keep searching but might have to make do with this.

Screenshot_20180104-081734.png

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18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Been looking at the ECM ensemble members and we're seeing the typical divergence with this kind of set up.

Either energy over the top or underneath. The mean value isn't really telling the true picture because of the vastly different outcomes depending on where that energy goes.

The members vary from excellent to good to downright ugly in terms of outcomes.

The output of the ops days 6/7 today look very much like the mean has last few days nick ....  I have said this before but sometimes the solution ends up being a blend of the clusters - the mean !!

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4 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Want to know if things have taken a step backwards? LOMP tells you it has:D:D Lack Of Murr Posts:D

Probably charging his phone battery, he'll be back:D

Anyway, there is still plenty of cold interest, cold weekend coming up with frosts and some wintry showers in the east with a high windchill factor and then next week looks rather cold complicated with scope for some wintry ppn, frosts and ice.:)

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Just now, tvh3382 said:

 

Come on. The GFS is not king, neither are any of the models.   GFS has moved towards ECM, ECM has moved towards the GFS with GFS moving more towards ECM than the other way round.

Cant post charts as zi am on phone but if you look at GFS  for next Tuesday from two days ago and today for the same time you will see that the GFS will be.the bigger difference.

The METO has been middle ground and this is looking more likely.  Come back in 7 days and see if you can say GFS is king. I don’t think so.

i am surprised at sime of the more experienced members who are claiming GFS has been right all along.

 

SIMPLY NOT TRUE AND MISLEADING TO SLL THE NEW MEMBERS,

Remember the cold spell has not arrived yet so who knows how long it will last.

Probably the most accurate description of the current model 'dispute' which hasn't yet been resolved btw

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34 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'll deny it.

The GFS didn't even want to give us a block in the first place because it always overestimates the Northern arm of the jet, always, always, always.

And of course the Atlantic will always win at some point and the GFS will be correct by default.

Good morning. Debate is always good imo. I will have a look back but I'm pretty sure the gfs has been showing a block but one that really doesn't affect the UK for long due to the forcing from the Atlantic. A little like what the ecm op shows this morning ☺️ 

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After Monday high resolution oper and low resolution control start diverging in wind direction in the de Bilt plume, so still a lot of uncertainty in what happens after that

Screenshot_20180104-093832.png

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Model carnage (maybe that's too strong) again - but it's not exactly unexpected.  Over the last few days as things have evolved, we've been seeing the GFS sending a bit more energy south relative to what it had, and the ECM sending more energy north relative to what it had - basically the bias of both models is exposed for all to see. 

However, let me throw out a darts analogy (not often you get that in the model thread!), if you throw at triple 20 and hit just slightly too low, on your next dart you adjust - maybe you get a bit closer. Then you throw again, this time you've adjusted too much and end up above the wire. On your next dart you adjust back the other way, and finally you hit it.  In short the models are still adjusting - especially at the 144+ time range.  What often happens during the downgrades is that the models over adjust one way, and then re-adjust back somewhat a few runs later.

So  for the next 10 days probably no -10 uppers from the East with convective snow, but we only need to adjust very slightly (in terms of more southern jet energy) to create a very snowy battleground.

Edited by beng

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EXT eps are not great either.

Think its reasonable to say we need a shift back on the 12zs,I'm not entirely sure Exeter will change their update today but unless we see a trend to more undercutting very soon i think tomorrows update might remove the word snow from the text.

We'll see...

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23 minutes ago, tvh3382 said:

 

Come on. The GFS is not king, neither are any of the models.   GFS has moved towards ECM, ECM has moved towards the GFS with GFS moving more towards ECM than the other way round.

Cant post charts as zi am on phone but if you look at GFS  for next Tuesday from two days ago and today for the same time you will see that the GFS will be.the bigger difference.

The METO has been middle ground and this is looking more likely.  Come back in 7 days and see if you can say GFS is king. I don’t think so.

i am surprised at sime of the more experienced members who are claiming GFS has been right all along.

 

SIMPLY NOT TRUE AND MISLEADING TO SLL THE NEW MEMBERS,

Remember the cold spell has not arrived yet so who knows how long it will last.

Mate im only talking about-both 0/196 hrs...and the fact like it or not that others mods ukmo-gem- and certainly ecm have leaned toward gfs

I think some have blinkers on this morning!?

Not to say there arent opportunity for some intresting developments, but between given timeframes 'again' 0/196 hrs..im confident of agree!!! 

Iv'e never flagged up any further out than above suggested!!...

Im leaving this one here now...moving on.

Certainly no missleading of any sorts..just what sits in front of view!!

Edited by tight isobar

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4 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Good morning. Debate is always good imo. I will have a look back but I'm pretty sure the gfs has been showing a block but one that really doesn't affect the UK for long due to the forcing from the Atlantic. A little like what the ecm op shows this morning ☺️ 

It went from a W air flow to SW to S in three days each time the block is stronger and more resilient to the Atlantic till today where it manages to stop it. Still plenty of time for that to push even further west and have us a little surprise or two.

According the NW folk it is impossible for all models to be wrong and there must be one winner.

 

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And don't forget, after a nailed-on dip in temperatures this weekend there are still a number of members within GFS ensembles (and the other models) offering significant potential for the longer term. Pert 5 would be fun in Skeggy :D

tempresult_zoq9.giftempresult_kjy1.giftempresult_jro7.gif

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To me, next week still looks interesting regarding potential cold if we take all the 00z output and put it in a blender, there is a risk of battleground snow, some wintry showers, frosts and ice..all to play for!:):cold-emoji:

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