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Model output discussion - into 2018

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4 minutes ago, supernova said:

Pretty uninspiring stuff this morning with GFS ensembles predicting a general cooling trend but nothimg to stir the soul. Not much scatter either for the next week.

688955B4-561C-45B2-AE1D-5297C26821E5.png

Yep, just bog standard unsettled chilly winter weather. More along folks, nothing to see here!

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Ecm 00z looks quite wintry next week, especially further north and I'm sure there would be significant amounts of snow further north with a strong blast of cold zonality..:)

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8 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Ecm 00z looks quite wintry next week, especially further north and I'm sure there would be significant amounts of snow further north with a strong blast of cold zonality..:)

The ECM for the last two runs haven't been that good, The day 5 Chart is showing a temporarily South Westerlies and the Cold Zonality is still out at day 6.

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After last nights excitement its a bit of a hangover this morning.

From early doors the GFS was never going to repeat last nights runs with too much energy east less going se'wards.

It's not like we're dealing with a rampant PV stuck to the north , it looks pretty disorganised but theres a lack of amplification upstream to drive lower heights further se.

The ECM is even more progressive this morning. The 850's look on the cool side so some snow for the north with elevation. Perhaps  a shortwave might develop and run east at the base of the trough which might spring a surprise.

It's not a horror show by any means but we really don't want to see any more flattening.

The UKMO looks a bit more amplified but the overall pattern is similar.

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8 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Easterly, SE’ly, NW’ly will it won’t it....next run is crucial, winter is over until next decade, you were wrong, you are the bleaker.......guys and girls it matters little who calls what..have your view and let it evolve and move on....not getting Synoptics spot on isn’t failing.

10 hours ago I left Swansea to come home for a day to see my wife and son.  Been in Swansea as my dad was poorly and been in hospital since before Xmas.  I thought when I kissed him fairwell that I would be back to see him on Thursday.  He passed away 2 hours ago...and I’m 200 miles away.......now THAT is failing......

I will be gone for a while...

 

BFTP

Sorry to hear your news, Fred.  I don't post here much, however I am sure that your dad appreciated your support while you were there and that is what matters.

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3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended remains with a northwesterly flow

ukm2.2018011700_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6c1d825f460bae1453fc7e8433267f7b.png

It looks decently wintry. However, it is worrying that the ECM does not dig the trough southeastwards and the Azores high extends its influence to Iberia. Not what coldies want to see. Yesterday's 12z ICON was the first to show this and now the ECM is showing too. 

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So it would appear that we are still looking at day 5/6 for our Atlantic incursion this morning with the difference now being that the uppers are being moderated somewhat so IF the Atlantic does break through any wintry weather will be alot more marginal.

Crucial 6z run coming up?!  :rofl:

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10 minutes ago, karyo said:

It looks decently wintry. However, it is worrying that the ECM does not dig the trough southeastwards and the Azores high extends its influence to Iberia. Not what coldies want to see. Yesterday's 12z ICON was the first to show this and now the ECM is showing too. 

Looks like it has a lot of backing too

EDM1-120.GIF?10-12

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Cold zonality next week would be a decent consolation prize for the failed easterly / beasterly..whatever!:D..at least the models are not showing all the energy running NE with mild zonal mush to endure!:)

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4 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Looks like it has a lot of backing too

EDM1-120.GIF?10-12

Yes, now pressure looks relatively high across the Med. Also, the orientation of the Russian high is not good.

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Off topic but just want to say I'm sorry to hear your news Fred. I like reading your posts and you'll be missed while you're away but get the truly important stuff sorted before you worry about the weather again.

Best wishes.

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after a couple of days of some ''false promises' (though realistically there have been few of these), we are left with the lipstick covered pig again. Of course the north of the uk, especially with elevation are still in with a shot of snowfall from this cold zonal flow and there is a chance of a runner across the middle of the country next week. (The Welsh hills are also in the cold zonal snow camp though that runner won't help as it's currently too far north)

little sign on the extended ens that something is brewing - there is amplification on gefs members but nothing that stands out as a theme. 

on the plus side, I should be able to find  the time to get my tax return filed! 

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8 minutes ago, karyo said:

Yes, now pressure looks relatively high across the Med. Also, the orientation of the Russian high is not good.

Credit icon if it does pan out the way it doea on the ecm!!was the first model to show higher heights across spain and france!!apart from that so far either side it looks the same!!scandi high proving to be stubborn and keeps pushing the atlantic away and when the atlantic does eventually breakthrough its a cold snow northwesterly!!

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Following the models is just like chasing shadows tbh, everything good is always fi and everything always gets watered down as it gets closer, I no I sound all doom and gloom but unfortunately that’s the reality of it. I do think I need a break from here but find it very addictive 

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Just now, bluearmy said:

after a couple of days of some ''false promises' (though realistically there have been few of these), we are left with the lipstick covered pig again. Of course the north of the uk, especially with elevation are still in with a shot of snowfall from this cold zonal flow and there is a chance of a runner across the middle of the country next week. (The Welsh hills are also in the cold zonal snow camp though that runner won't help as it's currently too far north)

little sign on the extended ens that something is brewing - there is amplification on gefs members but nothing that stands out as a theme. 

on the plus side, I should be able to find  the time to get my tax return filed! 

Yes.  Blue more chance of a nice surprise from the tax man than from the weather at the moment. lol

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High even slightly more to the west at 42 hours now on the 06z!!that is one massive block!!

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2 minutes ago, shaky said:

High even slightly more to the west at 42 hours now on the 06z!!that is one massive block!!

The initial WAA which drove the ridge was from a piece of vortex spat se which dug into the Atlantic and found a ridge already carved ahead of it. Subsequently, we see attacks which are not assisted by vortex chunks and also an Azores ridge thrown up to help the block strengthen. Early next week we see an attack from another piece of discarded vortex but this is stronger than before and there is no ridging ahead of it. it doesn't matter that the block is showing a big stronger in this run or that run. Unless we see a marked change in the pattern ahead of this vortex pulse next week, the block will not hold. Nor does it seem it can deflect it far enough se to keep us on the cold side of the trough. I am confident that no pattern change is going to appear.  It's a shame because ironically, we do see some cold pools dropping into the flow around the block and if the next pulse of attack was just 36 hours later I suspect we would see quite a different evolution for nw Europe. Hey ho ....

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Couple of posts removed - please use the moaning thread for pure and simple moans with no model discussion. 

Locking this one now too, fresh thread open in a second. 

New thread here:

 

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