Jump to content
Holidays
Local
Radar
Windy?
Paul

Model output discussion - into 2018

Recommended Posts

6 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

Here i suppose ' only cold we are going to tap into , Failed easterlie , what else could happen :cc_confused:

iceland grocery.jpg

Maybe a short wave will scupper it next time...:rofl:

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Tom Jarvis said:

I’m putting this up as I do not understand why people are exspecting an cold zonal to deliver snow for everyone!!! When has it ever happened?? I don’t know as normally when this cold zonal gets down to t0 the uppers are completely underestimated and too mixed out, all we get in the end is then freezing rain which is all the south east has had this winter. I believe the models are underestimating the block so I’m sure allot of people will be surprised by what the models show in a weeks time. But if you think cold zonal is going to deliver the snowfest people want it will not happen all it will bring is cold rain. 

Speak for yourself! I live in an unfavourable place in the Southeast yet I’ve had two snow events this winter so far, Cold zonality looks likely in the near future and can deliver, I think we should appreciate what some northern areas may get and leave the IMBYism out of this thread :) 

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, OfficialKevWX said:

Speak for yourself! I live in an unfavourable place in the Southeast yet I’ve had two snow events this winter so far, Cold zonality looks likely in the near future and can deliver, I think we should appreciate what some northern areas may get and leave the IMBYism out of this thread :) 

Here here. 1984 I think delivered cold Westerly winds which packed plenty of snow into North West. Way too much emphasis on the easterly

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

So any modelled Pm blast shows -4 /5c 850s! No snow in that for the vast majority of the population. Waste of anticipation unless you are on a hill north of Manchester. Waste of time and certainly miserable days ahead. Watch the postive teleconnection musings become watered down as we close in on end of Jan. We really need to see a SSW so that we are not chasing the pot of gold until March.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

At least the Scottish ski  industry will be happy with the current outlook,cold zonality is perfect for them.If the rest of the month turns out like 1984 then many places will also see snow especially in The NW and Scotland.

However maybe we  need to see where we are tomorrow before we completely write off this Easterly yet.The end of the week is a long time in the weather model world ,look at the changes in the output over the last few days.

Edited by SLEETY
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

I’m beginning to feel sorry for this easterly .

It’s being framed for crimes against coldies ! No output ever showed a proper easterly with deep cold and convection potential.

What we’ve seen is high pressure to the east/ne influencing the trough and trying to advect some cold air west then nw which might engage that.

If the block was to win out then at that point a chance but you need more energy over Central Southern Europe not directed towards Iberia.

Generally easterlies have trough disruption with a shortwave trigger not the whole trough trying to moving se.

 

Edited by nick sussex
  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

5a52abbca2989_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_16_17.thumb.png.0f82dc34e2b03ff421b12d8fc34637bf.png      +      5a52abc7bbe40_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_22_03.thumb.png.b68e7b97511f0236602c53327e532066.png    +    5a52abd6eea00_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_20_31.thumb.png.bdc50dda556f50deb93d1791dadf8926.png     =    5a52ac082734b_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_23_36.thumb.png.c14edc03b87cfc5d75e9e3d0b0d63ab0.png  ?

Simple math? :D

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ghoneym said:

 

 

5a52abbca2989_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_16_17.thumb.png.0f82dc34e2b03ff421b12d8fc34637bf.png      +      5a52abc7bbe40_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_22_03.thumb.png.b68e7b97511f0236602c53327e532066.png    +    5a52abd6eea00_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_20_31.thumb.png.bdc50dda556f50deb93d1791dadf8926.png     =    5a52ac082734b_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_23_36.thumb.png.c14edc03b87cfc5d75e9e3d0b0d63ab0.png  ?

Simple math? :D

Mans not hot!!!!!!

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, ghoneym said:

 

 

5a52abbca2989_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_16_17.thumb.png.0f82dc34e2b03ff421b12d8fc34637bf.png      +      5a52abc7bbe40_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_22_03.thumb.png.b68e7b97511f0236602c53327e532066.png    +    5a52abd6eea00_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_20_31.thumb.png.bdc50dda556f50deb93d1791dadf8926.png     =    5a52ac082734b_ScreenShot2018-01-07at23_23_36.thumb.png.c14edc03b87cfc5d75e9e3d0b0d63ab0.png  ?

Simple math? :D

Maths dammit! 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

tentative signs on the GEFS of the strat warming as well.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Everyone knows I like to have a good moan ! The outputs are okay , things might develop more favourably and when you have a se jet track it does open up possibilities .

I’ve not wheeled out any of my film analogies or become too melodramatic which means I’m waiting to see how things unfold! :D

Give it a few more runs, we might still get the undercut but if not the se jet is still showing up and has good support.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Everyone knows I like to have a good moan ! The outputs are okay , things might develop more favourably and when you have a se jet track it does open up possibilities .

I’ve not wheeled out any of my film analogies or become too melodramatic which means I’m waiting to see how things unfold! :D

Give it a few more runs, we might still get the undercut but if not the se jet is still showing up and has good support.

Only problem now re- SE JET is that even what was -6 to -7 uppers are now becoming -4 - not good enough for any location, sorry if people think I'm a moaning negative boring moody git like ive been today but I am only saying what I see.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
28 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

I’m putting this up as I do not understand why people are exspecting an cold zonal to deliver snow for everyone!!! When has it ever happened?? I don’t know as normally when this cold zonal gets down to t0 the uppers are completely underestimated and too mixed out, all we get in the end is then freezing rain which is all the south east has had this winter. I believe the models are underestimating the block so I’m sure allot of people will be surprised by what the models show in a weeks time. But if you think cold zonal is going to deliver the snowfest people want it will not happen all it will bring is cold rain. 

i think there might be a few snowman corpses still around from december to disagree with you....

2733802982_69806b2852.thumb.jpg.764d7fa4d69fa89d53c516ea22af9e63.jpg

"i came from the north-west"

see...

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Very true NS, as long as its up there all we can do is sit and watch how it behaves, however long that may be.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Only problem now re- SE JET is that even what was -6 to -7 uppers are now becoming -4 - not good enough for any location, sorry if people think I'm a moaning negative boring moody git like ive been today but I am only saying what I see.

After the Arsenal result I could have done my Bette Davis impression but I’ve held it together well! :D  

So feel free to throw a few toys out of the pram !

I think Feb it’s a case of wait and see for a few more runs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Mans not hot!!!!!!

Quick maths :D if only an SSW was as simple as that

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
39 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

I’m putting this up as I do not understand why people are exspecting an cold zonal to deliver snow for everyone!!! When has it ever happened?? I don’t know as normally when this cold zonal gets down to t0 the uppers are completely underestimated and too mixed out, all we get in the end is then freezing rain which is all the south east has had this winter. I believe the models are underestimating the block so I’m sure allot of people will be surprised by what the models show in a weeks time. But if you think cold zonal is going to deliver the snowfest people want it will not happen all it will bring is cold rain. 

Didn't most of the Midlands central and southern uk have snow from a slider from the NW a few weeks ago?? and don't the Midlands have another snow event from the NW last week that closed major roads and Airports in the South East?? I'm afraid to say it but in the UK not one type of weather direction delivers for the entire country....so why on earth would anybody expect cold zonality to deliver for everyone?? for instance an Easterly is not really any good for me in my location but delivers for many, so far this winter my location has had an epic time from cold zonal weather types while many others have missed out so a snow fest for one is never going to be a snow fest for all it simply cannot work that way and never will.

  • Like 6

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, More Snow said:

Didn't most of the Midlands central and southern uk have snow from a slider from the NW a few weeks ago?? and don't the Midlands have another snow event from the NW last week that closed major roads and Airports in the South East?? I'm afraid to say it but in the UK not one type of weather direction delivers for the entire country....so why on earth would anybody expect cold zonality to deliver for everyone?? for instance an Easterly is not really any good for me in my location but delivers for many, so far this winter my location has had an epic time from cold zonal weather types while many others have missed out so a snow fest for one is never going to be a snow fest for all it simply cannot work that way and never will.

lol no

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, steveinsussex said:

lol no

so the news was lying then??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)

Not too bad at all, mean consistently at  or around -5 for some time, in London. Some decent zonality may just be around the corner, then who knows, the easterly we crave so badly may come at the end of the month ;);)

Screenshot_20180107-235021.jpg

Edited by Connor Bailey Degnan
  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, More Snow said:

Didn't most of the Midlands central and southern uk have snow from a slider from the NW a few weeks ago?? and don't the Midlands have another snow event from the NW last week that closed major roads and Airports in the South East?? I'm afraid to say it but in the UK not one type of weather direction delivers for the entire country....so why on earth would anybody expect cold zonality to deliver for everyone?? for instance an Easterly is not really any good for me in my location but delivers for many, so far this winter my location has had an epic time from cold zonal weather types while many others have missed out so a snow fest for one is never going to be a snow fest for all it simply cannot work that way and never will.

Sliders and a PM airflow are different beasts entirely usually the first requires some cold in place especially in the near continent to deliver anything for the South and while NW'ly blasts are good the further N and W you go here in the SE all I get is slightly colder rain.

Only thing I care about is the Jet heading South but even then I'm tired of having these rain to snow events which are gone by the next day. After almost 0 luck since 2013 it's easy to assume why many are just starting to get agitated. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, More Snow said:

so the news was lying then??

Most of the midlands and the SE did not have snow that laid and caused travel problems

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, steveinsussex said:

Most of the midlands and the SE did not have snow that laid and caused travel problems

A14 CLOSED?? STANSTEAD AIRPORT CLOSED????  the first slider in December gave snow to many parts maybe not in Sussex but to many parts it did and then the snow that fell last week that closed roads and airports again may not have fallen in Sussex but it did effect many areas..

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Both events in the midlands in December in aras which saw the most snow had uppers widely of -4 or -5, dewpoints were below zero.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, More Snow said:

A14 CLOSED?? STANSTEAD AIRPORT CLOSED????  the first slider in December gave snow to many parts maybe not in Sussex but to many parts it did and then the snow that fell last week that closed roads and airports again may not have fallen in Sussex but it did effect many areas..

im not getting into this but you said most; plus it was very localised and dependent on elevation

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×