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Model output discussion - into 2018

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

How does the current UKMO 12z 850 chart at T+120 compare with yesterday's 12z 850 chart at T+144?

TodayModele UKMO - Carte prévisions

YesterdayModele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives

Still amazing but it's getting to crunch time and GFS still isn't on board. 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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Posted (edited)
51 minutes ago, Danny* said:

The -12c temperature are on a single deterministic run on a single model, It's hardly a surprise the Met isn't jumping over themselves with forecasting an Easterly. 

The most likely outcome when taking all the ensembles/outputs from the last few days and today remains that of cold zonal, not bitter cold Easterly winds.

Surely the most likely outcome based on the last few days is we really do not know because of the massive changes we have seen these past 48hrs.

UKMO is excellent yet again!

Edited by TEITS
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At 72 the ECM sided with UKMO again.

gfsnh-0-72.thumb.png.b3f2f01b299ffe730b0e47c03c3003f4.pngUN72-21.thumb.GIF.91e0432de67dba21a1fa752c08bfcc38.GIFECH1-72.GIF.thumb.png.c85e8aa5d88c1c0b0b4e334b3296abbd.png

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, jvenge said:

I could quite easily believe the UKMO over the GFS, but over the GEFS is a big ask.

Seriously? GEFS have been even worse of late even more volatile some support is there anywho. Currently I’d say there is a chance of a ‘beast’ but less than 10% chance atm. Some of you folk, sure are pessimistic. Nothing wrong with UKMO it looks like there’s going to be stand-off there will be only one winner models underestimate cold evolution..

D3D91D11-694B-4AFB-9255-23A048802385.thumb.png.01a48a3c806a979814f38d07d5b522b6.png4A74F4CF-A072-4DA7-8A7E-9BADB71016BF.thumb.png.bf46c380bb9eaa72eb28f3f18abf7854.pngD5FFDB8C-6B5A-4D9C-A561-A7AFEF27866C.thumb.png.bba32d75388bb52a5a7bd81f02c3997b.png

Edited by Daniel*
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39 minutes ago, bobbydog said:

"omnipresent" or not, this is worth a mention....

gfsnh-10-384-1.thumb.png.71e3ade41632347a0dfce432a141ed0c.png

even just because it looks pretty.

It is the toastiest I have seen for ages granted.

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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ecm still on track at t96:D

Lol am just waiting for that steve BOOM post!!

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The suspense for the 120 chart is incredible.

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Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ecm still on track at t96:D

Feels like we have been saying that for the last 5 years.

Edited by The Eagle
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16 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

TodayModele UKMO - Carte prévisions

YesterdayModele UKMO - Carte prévisions  Archives

Still amazing but it's getting to crunch time and GFS still isn't on board. 

Steady - all I was expecting from UKMO. If future 12z outputs remain steady than when asked the question "and where is GFS?" The response can be "quite frankly who cares?".

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Posted (edited)

ECMECM1-120.GIF?07-0 UKMO Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ECM looking like a stronger block? Could it be boom town?

 

Edited by SN0WM4N
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1 minute ago, SN0WM4N said:

ECMECM1-120.GIF?07-0 UKMO Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

ECM looking like a stronger block? Could it be boom town?

 

Or a classic case of ECM over amping?😃

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Brilliant 120z from ECM, here's the ECM, UKMO, and GFS for comparison.:yahoo:

T144 will be the biggie, can the Atlantic be pushed back? The question that everyone is asking.:D

ECM1-120.gif

UW120-21.gif

gfs-0-120.png

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1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

A proper easterly in one that can deliver snow showers has to wait till the Atlantic has been beaten into submission !

 

Lol.

I need the Atlantic fronts bumping into the cold flow for the snow to be significant, so the Atlantic can edge in as much as it needs to (but not to much ;) )

However this is a great example of the thread in general, and why we had a flurry of posts questioning different members take on what the models show.

for example...

Im not particularly interested in snow showers packing in from the east (they rarely get this far west)....my interest lies with frontal snow edging in from the Atlantic. Others in the south east would prefer those showes from the east, and those in Scotland probably are not that interested at all in the easterly if it's snow they are after. ( the one caveat being a repeat of Feb 91 or Jan 87 etc)

So even though it shouldn't happen, it's pretty well certain most will comment on the models initially from there own locations perspective.

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1 minute ago, John Michael How said:

Or a classic case of ECM over amping?😃

It's sat next to the UKMO so probably not? Who knows really.

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Not going to be popular but i fear the block is to far east on the EC..

 

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Uppers UKMO and ECM at T120.:D

UW120-7.gif

ECM0-120.gif

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Not going to be popular but i fear the block is to far east on the EC..

 

Your not wrong there mate :D:cold:

Popular that is

Edited by SteveB
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Still the battle for Britain!

ECH1-144.GIF.thumb.png.1041007f7ee683899ba66f86eb2309f3.png

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Not going to be popular but i fear the block is to far east on the EC..

 

Sometimes it feels like your trolling the thread......gonnae wheesh’d

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Angle of the trough not quite as good as UKMO has it. A shame given how the +96 was - but there is still scope for further adjustments (albeit in either direction!).

I am picking hairs I suppose. If that cold air could just get far west enough to interfere with the frontal boundary and force the southern limits to continue ahead of the northern such that you get the negative trough tilt... that being what happens in a classic setup with the cold already closer by. The lack of that on this occasion may be the downfall on this particular occasion. Maybe.

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100% agreement is there for to push very cold westwards into Europe question is what about us on the periphery. 

252D06F8-0C3F-4F2A-858C-30CF52217F17.thumb.png.93805f453a017071d1d4f6126fbcec1c.pngD6342F9D-5BB4-47BC-BB47-B355A999F16B.thumb.png.84baf3a05636a7ebb4d2a84f547dea18.png

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Close to a battleground scenario at T144, Atlantic being held at bay, nail biting stuff!:laugh:

ECM1-144.gif

ECM0-144.gif

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