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Model output discussion - into 2018

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2 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Trust me the 06Z is swinging towards the Euros and is a much better run. Im afraid some are too eager to post.

Indeed Teits

No denying the 06z is swinging towards the Euros.Just wish that some would let the run develop before posting.

C.S

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7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

LOL

So the GFS 06Z In last few posts go from a better run to GFS Having none of it,Good luck to all the newbies trying to get a grip of things 

C.S

You miss read NWS post. He was referring to the GFS in general not the 06z. 

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Posted (edited)

Can someone find me an archive chart similar to this morning's UKMO - with low pressure over Greece and the high over Finland?  I just don't remember that really happening - to me it either ends up several hundred miles further east, or more likely (given the trends) the whole pattern should be shifted several hundred miles West, with the low pressure over Italy and the centre of the high Sweden/Norway.

UMKO is leading the way probably, but still too progressive at 144h.

 

EDIT, the closest I can find is Jan 31st 2009

 

Modele UKMO - Carte prévisions

 

Jan 31st 2009

archivesnh-2009-1-31-0-0.png

 

Edited by beng

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6 hours ago, metaltron said:

My impression has been that the UKMO has been awful this winter, especially at T144, but hopefully its right today! Anybody remember the Mid-Atlantic cut off low drama last January when the UKMO trumped the GFS/ECM, to coldies' despair, after Knocker said the UKMO looked the more likely evolution? So it is possible that the UKMO can be right against the ECM/GFS, but I think everybody would like to see the ECM agreeing later on.

I'm still not sold on us getting an easterly but statistically speaking the UKMO is over the course of a year, season or whatever a far superior model to GFS. The gap has reduced since 2014 though when the UKMO was just about the worlds best with the GFS getting a few updates since (not sure what the Met is planning for the model).

51 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended has a band of heavy rain stretching from Scotland right down to North Africa

ukm2.2018011400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.9e48fc6034affaf6d4819a1a715fae70.png

 

The two keys on that chart are firstly that we can see from the contour line that the easterly has made it to south east England (though probably not too strongly) but more importantly that the kink in that front is over the channel suggesting that a secondary low is trying to form and may be south enough to try undercut. 

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As usual GFS manages to find a 50 mile diameter area of low pressure over Norway which manages to block a 2000 mile area of High pressure from advancing.

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3 minutes ago, Spah1 said:

You miss read NWS post. He was referring to the GFS in general not the 06z. 

I was not responding to NWS it was a general Observation and not just Today,Happens all the time,Just wish some folk would wait a bit longer before posting.and let the run develop.

C.S

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21 minutes ago, Danny* said:

The GFS is still having absolutely none of it though, and given what happened just a couple of days ago I'm not letting myself get excited.

Very wise indeed it trumps the others but only because none of them have a very good handle on what in reality is going on !!

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Nope. 

GFS not really interested again- any easterly is about 2500 miles away in Russia!!

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope. 

GFS not really interested again- any easterly is about 2500 miles away in Russia!!

It did make a big move towards it in the early stages of the run, then managed to concoct a way to derail it.

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well theres no dressing that run up- its garbage!!

Hopefully,its wrong.

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5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Nope. 

GFS not really interested again- any easterly is about 2500 miles away in Russia!!

Hmmm.small steps forward early on I guess but the problem is it could end up as a holding feature without actually producing any wintry weather! !! Maybe something from the nw may be more productive .btw do you know what 850s are required at sea level in a pm nw flow for snow.my brain oa a bit fried this morning tia

 

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Just now, Johnp said:

It did make a big move towards it in the early stages of the run, then managed to concoct a way to derail it.

yes the move towards ecm ukmo were in the high res part of the run. 

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Just now, swfc said:

Hmmm.small steps forward early on I guess but the problem is it could end up as a holding feature without actually producing any wintry weather! !! Maybe something from the nw may be more productive .btw do you know what 850s are required at sea level in a pm nw flow for snow.my brain oa a bit fried this morning tia

 

I'm not sure mate- i'm not throwing in the towel on an easterly yet- gfs6z is crap though..(out to 216hrs).

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

well theres no dressing that run up- its garbage!!

Hopefully,its wrong.

I would disagree, upto t120 it's a good step forward. IF it does the same later FI will look very different.  But heyho all part of the fun of discussing.

Edited by That ECM
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1 minute ago, Glenn Redwood said:

Can someone post some charts please. Lots of one line comments and none the wiser.

That's what imo is the step forward. Look at the block to the ne. 

IMG_0328.PNG

IMG_0329.PNG

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I'm not sure mate- i'm not throwing in the towel on an easterly yet- gfs6z is crap though..(out to 216hrs).

Since when has GFS been able to display a high degree of accuracy at T+216 anyway?

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3 minutes ago, Glenn Redwood said:

Can someone post some charts please. Lots of one line comments and none the wiser.

Go on metiociel or look on netweather to follow the charts.it will make things clear in regard to the posts on here

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1 minute ago, The Enforcer said:

Since when has GFS been able to display a high degree of accuracy at T+216 anyway?

I agree- i was just commenting on this run in isolation, not saying its correct :)

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15 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:

then again we've been told ad nauseum to ignore the 06/18z GFS as it's pig-swill.....but wait! if it shows cold, then it's the best thing since sliced bread...  :rolleyes:........that's why new and old members alike get confused, they get inundated with contradictions.........

still,, in terms of the output itself (and to make this post on-topic) I'm following TEITS's posts with interest, he initially and correctly posted a few days ago that this initial easterly would fail, a correct prediction so a big tick in the box as one has to get the initial solution correct to have any chance of offering a remotely accurate medium term forecast prediction 

I also predicted it would fail, and I'm predicting any potent Easterly much before months end will also fail

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whether we like it or not GFS6Z looks exactly like the meto update yesterday sounded- ie no easterly to speak of and unsettled with perhaps snow in the north at times amongst an Atlantic dominated pattern.

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00z a westerly flow . 

 

Gfs 6z we are cooler south/ easterly flow next weekend 

 

The trend is maybe westerlys do not get in end of next week something cooler from the east..

IMG_0354.PNG

IMG_0355.PNG

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5 minutes ago, The Enforcer said:

Since when has GFS been able to display a high degree of accuracy at T+216 anyway?

None of the models do . Exeter have problems with anything past 7 days along with most professional forecasting agencies

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3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I agree- i was just commenting on this run in isolation, not saying its correct :)

Indeed, in my opinion, the viewer should always be looking at charts beyond 5 days with a high degree of scepticism, whether they are showing cold or mild.

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