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Model output discussion - into 2018

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Posted (edited)
13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Almost as far as the Low Countries and it’s the first time the eps spread has shown a big area of low uppers heading west 

the spread on heights is so vast by day 10 that I expect the clusters later will reveal a wide gamut of options !!

I find the control interesting. As that suggests that even if the first hurdle is overcome, there are still things that can stall it before the atlantic pushes in. 

But there is not much point thinking too much. Since id personally trust the Op to have resolved the initial (famous last words) and if it did that "right", the EPS will be laughably different tomorrow.

Edited by jvenge

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9 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

But I'm sure I read somewhere that it's expected to be a 'front loaded' Winter for us, so if that's the case, time is ticking fast on our chance of snow again this season, mid January will be mid Winter in terms of 'weather seasons' anyway :nonono:

Front loaded by some method.....no way, coldest still to come.  I think La Nina signal at least perturbed 

 

BFTP  

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strato-signs could realy come to a help now.....

65.png

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Posted (edited)

Very nice ecm tonight - BBC long range just updated the high over Scandi is not going no where west - east  split .

IMG_0352.PNG

Edited by abbie123

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Posted (edited)
14 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Very nice ecm tonight - long range just updated the high over Scandi is not going no where west - east  split .

IMG_0352.PNG

Problem is the cold(not really cold either)won't make it to us.

I honestly think this easterly talk is or should be dead in the pan.

Our small island is in the wrong place on that chart.All we're going to end up with is wintryness restricted to hills,especially the north.

All info we can go by is not supporting what most talk of on here.

I'm a coldie but have seen this coming in the models last 2/3 days.

If we could move the British isles 1500miles further nne ,I could understand the decent undercut talk.

Edited by joggs
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Very encouraging signs tonight for us coldies, but let’s not get too excited until we have cross model agreement....especially following last week’s fiasco! 

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Just at work and seen the ECM is sticking true to form. Promise at days 8/9/10 as ever. Yawn!

I'll start to take note when that ticks down to day 5...

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25 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The mean does edge the pattern very slightly West compared to the 0z though.

Agreed-

Mean looks OK to me-

Lets be honest though- this has got a few more twists and turns to come - :)

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Ive been out for a while this evening, and now back I’ve just checked to see 7 new pages of chat, wondered why so much chatter!!!!  then just seen the ECM!! 

Back on that roller coaster we go 😬

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended

ukm2.2018011312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.f6e15caeff1d4a6f2444530bad4c91fc.png

ECM at the same time

ecm2.2018011312_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.def28edc2669cfb2505e19f144079884.png

UKMO actually looks better than ECM there as well.

EDIT : for cold that is.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
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1 minute ago, joggs said:

Problem is the cold(not really cold either)won't make it to us.

I honestly think this easterly talk is or should be dead in the pan.

Our small island is in the wrong place on that chart.All we're going to end up with is wintryness restricted to hills,especially the north.

All info we can go by is not supporting what most talk of on here.

I'm a coldie but have seen this coming in the models fr 2/3 days.

I'm no expert on the models but for every hour past T0 the weather permutations increase exponentially and the what if scenarios become vastly different at day 10 compared to 5 but surely no matter how unlikely we think an outcome is what is modeled is a possibility if all the right blocks fall into place?

There are charts in the latest NWP showing what is being discussed, whether they come to fruition is up for debate but we won't know that until T240 gets to T0.

We just need to get lucky :-)

Yeah it can be frustrating on our little island but at least we get a wide variety of weather.

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Posted (edited)

Just my opinion, don't know whether anyone else agrees but looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it doesn't look anything like as progressive as last night's in terms of the atlantic blasting through, it looks like the pattern has edged westwards which means more of a mexican standoff between the atlantic and the cold block to the east..interesting and hopefully a sign of things to come!:)

Edited by Frosty.
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1 minute ago, Frosty. said:

Just my opinion, don't know whether anyone else agrees but looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it doesn't look anything like as progressive as last night's the terms of the atlantic blasting through, it looks like the pattern has edged westwards which means more of a mexican standoff between the atlantic and the cold block to the east..interesting and hopefully a sign of things to come!:)

Agreed Frosty-

We could be looking at the very least  battleground situations-

 

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When does the next model come out please, is it about ten? Thanks :)

 

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I think there are more reasons for optimism this time given the UKMO has led the way, which tends to be the traditional party pooper. Seeing the similarity between it and the ECM out to 144 does provide the tantalising feeling that we could be on the cusp of something special.  And if it all goes jugs up, who cares, it's only the weather after all. 

Strap yourself in for the next gripping instalment of winter 2017/18. Time for a Sav Blanc to prep myself for the pub run.

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Just my opinion, don't know whether anyone else agrees but looking at tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean, it doesn't look anything like as progressive as last night's in terms of the atlantic blasting through, it looks like the pattern has edged westwards which means more of a mexican standoff between the atlantic and the cold block to the east..interesting and hopefully a sign of things to come!:)

I agree and ties in nicely with what @Steve Murr has been alluding to regarding the pattern edging westwards. I think we’ll start to see these subtle shifts over the next few days. Let’s hope we have cross model agreement soon! 

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All sensibility aside for us coldies that are looking for our winter fix and despite perhaps our better judgement, I suppose you could argue whats the point of watching the model output if we ignore even the slightest chance that what the ecm is showing could be right and for that reason I think many will be willing to be sucked in again (including myself).

It could after all turn out that this is what the ecm was seeing all along but was being over progressive in developing the pattern first time round. Well that's my straw to clutch.

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Just now, Bazray said:

When does the next model come out please, is it about ten? Thanks :)

 

The next of any model is the Icon which his out very soon (but that's a bin fodder model), the next proper model is the GFS, 9-30 until 11 - steadily trickles out.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

The next of any model is the Icon which his out very soon (but that's a bin fodder model), the next proper model is the GFS, 9-30 until 11 - steadily trickles out.

Ok thank you for that - no idea what the models mean, but am strangely addicted anyway. Judging by the reactions to the last one it's looking good, lets hope the pub run one continues the trend 

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37 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

But I'm sure I read somewhere that it's expected to be a 'front loaded' Winter for us, so if that's the case, time is ticking fast on our chance of snow again this season, mid January will be mid Winter in terms of 'weather seasons' anyway :nonono:

When did FI start at 1800 hrs ? . ECM held steady GFS flip flops and now a flip flop from the ECM. Await GFS 18z with interest. It's out come will have a bearing on the cost of entry to the GFS 0z . This exclusive club meets at 4am every day in the hope of a chart showing a flake of snow in the reliable. .just don't wake her in doors when you set off for it.

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7 minutes ago, CK1981 said:

I agree and ties in nicely with what @Steve Murr has been alluding to regarding the pattern edging westwards. I think we’ll start to see these subtle shifts over the next few days. Let’s hope we have cross model agreement soon! 

Yes it's very encouraging isn't it, hopefully more westward adjustments to come and we could be looking at a very wintry extended outlook..caution as always but it's got more interesting this evening.:)

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LOL that ECday 10 is a real snow making machine-

:crazy:

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Evening all :)

It's my new favourite time of the day (though probably not anyone else's).

Birthday watch - charts for January 15th taken from the main 12Z OP runs now at T+216:

ECM: - today's 216 and yesterday's T+240:

ECM1-216.GIF?06-0ECM1-240.GIF?12

GFS - today's 216 and yesterday's 240:

gfs-0-216.png?12gfs-0-240.png?12

GEM: - same again

gem-0-216.png?12gem-0-234.png?12

Fascinating to see the story develop - ECM and noticeably GFS "slower" to bring the large LP down through the British Isles but GEM a little different with orientation. I'd also note the height profiles to the north - ECM looks the cleanest today with as usual GFS hinting at conveying more energy to the north east. Let's see where we are tomorrow.

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