Model output discussion - into 2018

[West is Best]

It has been said many times but we look to the west rather than east first and foremost. It used to be my mantra on here a decade back. The point was that unless there was upstream blocking nothing else would hold downstream. That's a bit simplistic, since a powerful Scandi high, for example, can lead to mid-latitude blocking upstream.

However, whatever one thinks of westward facing these charts are pretty remarkable. UKMO at T144 but more particularly then ECM at T240 show deep cold pushing right across the Atlantic. I'm not sure I've ever before seen a bitterly cold westerly! The source of that is the intense deep cold pool on the eastern seaboard under the polar vortex.

Can you imagine how our weather would change for our latitude if the Atlantic were a cold source ...?!

UKMO at T144

Astonishing ECM at T240:

Edited January 8, 2018 by West is Best

[Summer Sun]

UKMO extended looking unsettled nationwide. Maybe snow on high ground but hard to tell with any 850's and a view further east

 

[Hammer50]

America could be the new Russia what about all the ocean effect snow Day after tomorrow springs to mind.heres hoping.

[bobbydog]

3 hours ago, Steve Murr said:

UKMO slightly eased off @144

slighly moderated on depth of cold -

time to give up on that easterly steve,

you made a valiant effort in its defence but its been found guilty and sentenced to death.

the ECM holds a bit of interest going forward though.

[Frosty.]

This week looks like a becoming less cold / milder sort of week, breezy / windy and rather cloudy at times with patchy rain. Hopefully after this week we will see some cold zonality as per Gfs 00z.

[nick sussex]

Overall good agreement this morning for a se jet with trough sinking se and heights remaining high to the east and later ne.

Any easterly or artist formerly known as easterly ( you’ll only get that if you were around during Princes self indulgent phase ) has little chance at the moment but might appear later once all that trough energy has cleared se.

The overall pattern isn’t bad and it’s really what happens post the sinking trough that’s of more potential interest.

 

 

[Chesil View]

Just now, nick sussex said:

Overall good agreement this morning for a se jet with trough sinking se and heights remaining high to the east and later ne.

Any easterly or artist formerly known as easterly ( you’ll only get that if you were around during Princes self indulgent phase ) has little chance at the moment but might appear later once all that trough energy has cleared se.

The overall pattern isn’t bad and it’s really what happens post the sinking trough that’s of more potential interest.

 

 

The thing us Nick rather like the easterly that flashes a bit of leg and then runs away we have had the suggestion of nw/se jet and falling hieghts into europe pretty much since the slider before xmas but rather like the easterly they never seem to quite get there.

[Troubleatmill]

26 minutes ago, West is Best said:

It has been said many times but we look to the west rather than east first and foremost. It used to be my mantra on here a decade back. The point was that unless there was upstream blocking nothing else would hold downstream. That's a bit simplistic, since a powerful Scandi high, for example, can lead to mid-latitude blocking upstream.

However, whatever one thinks of westward facing these charts are pretty remarkable. UKMO at T144 but more particularly then ECM at T240 show deep cold pushing right across the Atlantic. I'm not sure I've ever before seen a bitterly cold westerly! The source of that is the intense deep cold pool on the eastern seaboard under the polar vortex.

Can you imagine how our weather would change for our latitude if the Atlantic were a cold source ...?!

UKMO at T144

Astonishing ECM at T240:

Doesn't look that remarkable on wetter WIB? pretty common to get -5 850's from the west if the flow is strong enough? them -8s will get moderated down before reaching our shores. Believe late feb into March is the best time to see lower 850s and snow from the west when the ocean is at its coldest before the spring warming, certainly at lower levels. But then the sun is higher so its a no win situation  

Edited January 8, 2018 by Nicholas B

[BlazeStorm]

Don't understand why everyone is writing it off? Think we have a lot of grumpy members first thing in the morning...

 

Genuinely believe we will meet faces with this easterly within the next 7 days. Taking its time, and one thing's for sure, it doesn't look like that scandi high's going anywhere any time soon. Think it's brave to call anything beyond the 72hr mark when the models struggle to cope with the block. Which is clearly evident, seeing some members acknowledge the spread. So it will remain game on for much of this week.

I like where this is going.

Blaaazestorm

Edited January 8, 2018 by BlazeStorm

[offerman]

57 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

America could be the new Russia what about all the ocean effect snow Day after tomorrow springs to mind.heres hoping.

 That’s so true hammer when people post on here archival cold weather patterns easterlies or northerlies over the UK on those same charts quite often over the states milder air  was much further north even into southern Canada .

 

 

 What have noticed over the last few years particularly is the north eastern quadrant of the United States has often resembled the Arctic and Siberia deep cold seems to persist in those areas for much of the winter where is it wasn’t always the case before .  A few years ago when they had their first polar vortex news reports in America about the deep freeze it was a 100 year event but the last few years they seem to have had one every year .  So something major does seem to of happened with the weather patterns they seem to have switched drastically Russia does appear to be much warmer than what it’s akin too. 

 Whether this is going to be locked in for the next 5  10   15 years is anybody’s guess . 

 What have also noticed in these archival charts is that the Azores hi would have drifted so much for the Westwood and also at times moved northwards which also exacerbated how cold and snow .  However ,  this really seems to move and what used to be a semi permanent feature and someone else also mention on here recently it is now a permanent feature which just stays in the exact same place .   The Azores hi and the euro slug that often happens in winter or a massive change over the years in their power and difficulty in being removed once set in place . 

 So time will tell .  All I know is everything seems to have shifted out of our favour  for cold and snow even the northerlies and Eastleigh seem remarkably warm compare to northerlies easterlies of January Fairbury yesteryear . 

[TEITS]

Some will think im mad but I still haven't given up just yet. If this mornings UKMO charts at +96/+120/+144 were at +48/+72/+96 then I would agree. However we are still within the timeframe when the models could still back the high further W than currently modelled. This can occur upto the +48 timeframe when corrections then do not occur very much.

Either way whether its from the E or the W or later the N our weather certainly doesn't look boring. For example the ECM at +240 oozes potential. If the models are correct then like Nick Sussex says it could just be a case of waiting.

Edited January 8, 2018 by TEITS

[winterof79]

Not bad considering all the doom 

The ECM 168Z and UKMO 168z similar

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by winterof79

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Not bad considering all the doom 

If that was a cold front we would still be in business.

Talking about the analysis chart.

Edited January 8, 2018 by feb1991blizzard

[bluearmy]

7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If that was a cold front we would still be in business.

Talking about the analysis chart.

And it’s out of date following the 00z run 

[Met4Cast]

22 hours ago, Danny* said:

Perhaps we should rename the thread "Wishing Well" because some people are trying to wish this thing into existence. I'm in the "miserable git" club at the moment. And here's my reasoning.

The ECM clusters show little support for a sustained, cold Easterly. In fact, there's such a large range of solutions that it's difficult to pin-point any particular outcome but the EPS seemingly leaning more towards low pressure dominated (though some more zonal than others) rather than a cold, convective Easterly.

ECM mean isn't too bad, but more cold zonal than Easterly.

The GFS mean singing a similar tune

So we have two ensemble suites going for cold zonal with weaker heights to our North-East than the ops currently show. A look at the ensemble charts show massive spread in the mid-long term range with not a huge amount of support for anything particularly bitter.

So going forward? Yes it will turn colder with both ensembles suites representing that change. Yes, the ops are pointing towards an Easterly (though, none of them are actually showing one yet, just a trend towards stronger heights in the NE that currently don't depict freezing weather as some on here seem to be suggesting)

As I see it, cold zonal looks like the most likely outcome. We saw just a few days ago how the ops can massively overestimate blocking and give us bitter cold synoptics only for them to spectacularly back away from them. 

Are the ops/means/ens underestimating the Scandi block? Probably, and I expect we'll see it become a bit more robust within the models suite, but that still doesn't necessarily lead to bitter cold Easterlies.

People are talking like it's a done deal, but I'm struggling to see widespread support for that in the ensembles. Easterlies are the holy grail here so I'd love for the enthusiastic members to be right but the models currently aren't suggestive of that.

Well - The only change in the runs since I posted this is further movement towards the cold zonal/low pressure moving SEwards across the country and a further step away from the bitter, convective Easterly scenario.

The Easterly was never really showing on the models other than in a few rouge op runs at times, this can't really go down as a "fail" because the Easterly was quite literally just invented on this forum, which I find rather strange.

It'll still be cold with snow primarily in the North and West but perhaps further South and East at times too, weird to see such cold air coming from the Atlantic.

[Snowman.]

If we are to move on from the Easterly then we need to block to do one and not just slowly float down into Europe like the ECM, which brings a southerly draw to much of central Europe which is where we need our cold.

Synoptics look great but there is just no cold and I mean -8 uppers real cold.

Edited January 8, 2018 by SN0WM4N

[EastAnglian]

3 minutes ago, SN0WM4N said:

If we are to move on from the Easterly then we need to block to do one and not just slowly float down into Europe like the ECM, which brings a southerly draw to much of central Europe which is where we need our cold.

My fear as well but if the jet goes NW - SE as some have indicated wont that push energy under the block and at the least stop it sinking to NW France and the long southerly draw/endless mild mush?

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, Johnp said:

If there's one thing I hate more than failed easterlys, it's the barrage of told you so posts that follow.

Is there really any need? 

That's a fair point, Johnp...But, as we are all human, and thus never fully free of bias, I think we have to allow for a wee bit of backslapping? If the Beast had/does come off, I'd be making more than a few congratulatory posts, myself...

[TEITS]

9 minutes ago, Danny* said:

Well - The only change in the runs since I posted this is further movement towards the cold zonal/low pressure moving SEwards across the country and a further step away from the bitter, convective Easterly scenario.

The Easterly was never really showing on the models other than in a few rouge op runs at times, this can't really go down as a "fail" because the Easterly was quite literally just invented on this forum, which I find rather strange.

It'll still be cold with snow primarily in the North and West but perhaps further South and East at times too, weird to see such cold air coming from the Atlantic.

Sorry but saying the E,ly was invented is a bit harsh.

Some of us don't like just posting what the models are showing but how they might be wrong and change in the future which is what myself and Steve M have been saying.

[snowfish1]

1 hour ago, nick sussex said:

Overall good agreement this morning for a se jet with trough sinking se and heights remaining high to the east and later ne.

Any easterly or artist formerly known as easterly ( you’ll only get that if you were around during Princes self indulgent phase ) has little chance at the moment but might appear later once all that trough energy has cleared se.

The overall pattern isn’t bad and it’s really what happens post the sinking trough that’s of more potential interest.

 

 

Totally but it's becoming a tease you and torment you winter when is there going to be something to get our teeth into??

[MP-R]

So the 'cold' easterly has failed, but the easterly itself hasn't - upon checking my weather station, it is 2C and the wind appears to be... from the east!

Anyway, looking forward, to my amateur eyes it appears both the Atlantic and high pressure to the east/northeast seem to be having difficulty deciding who's going to take authority, with both the GFS and ECM, in slightly differing manner, suggesting the Atlantic won't break through properly until the end of the weekend. The ECM goes even further by demonstrating how Monday's Atlantic attack disrupts with a flabby area of low pressure landing southeast over the near continent by the 17th.

All conjecture of course, but the immediate outlook appears as helpful for coldies as it does for mildies with neither really on offer. Distinctly average or at best chilly in the reliable timeframe, after a very cold start in the north, with generally quite uninspiring conditions dominating while we wait for a pattern to establish.

[Dennis]

we need a good NP blocking then some could grow with a wave2 in strato..... zonal winds lower it comes to more blocking

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by Dennis

[frosty ground]

The Block to the East is causing all kinds of problems, it isn't quite up to pushing back the Atlantics and neither is it surrendering.

A Cold North West to South East progression is being put back all the time. We should be looking at some Cold Zonality later this week but this is now past the weekend.

The 06z has the cold pool over central Eastern Europe rather than the south East (Greece) again there was no cold pool forecast over Europe (At least with a block in place and no top up from the North.)

If as forcast the Jet quietens down for a few days with the Jet still anglened NW/SE and the Block to the east is still hanging around the chances of a major snowfall over some part of the UK must be high, especially as the Cold over Europe is still being modelled all over the place.

 

 

Edited January 8, 2018 by frosty ground

[karyo]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

The Block to the East is causing all kinds of problems, it isn't quite up to pushing back the Atlantics and neither is it surrendering.

A Cold North West to South East progression is being put back all the time. We should be looking at some Cold Zonality later this week but this is now past the weekend.

The 06z has the cold pool over central Eastern Europe rather than the south East (Greece) again there was no cold pool forecast over n Europe (At least with a block in place and no top up from the North.

 

 

Yes, a very frustrating picture! The block is likely to become a hindrance at this rate.

[Timmytour]

On ‎05‎/‎01‎/‎2018 at 09:09, Timmytour said:

My take on this is that from three dice we need to hit of score of 16 or more and we spend a lot of time getting excited when the first die comes up with 4 or more to give us a chance.

So we are in for a cold blip for a couple of days around the 7th. Pretty sure Steve Murr was suggesting this about 10 days ago.

Personally I'll get excited when two of the big three show potential as long as one of them is GFS.

Winter is no busted flush though. I'm expecting to see a 6 come in around the 10th followed by another one on the 11th. Then we really are in with a 50/50 chance!

 

I still think SM and TEITs are on to something here.  But I feel that first die has got to roll in with a 6 by wednesday's runs and that, to prepare the ground for the models to show that major shift by then, some minor shifting is going to have to go on in the meantime to reverse the trending of the past couple of days.  I think this morning's runs contain a hint of that minor shifting!