Model output discussion - into 2018

[That ECM]

T144 is good. Strong block in place. Finally managed to attach the image!

Edited January 3, 2018 by That ECM

[Snowman.]

Oh look it's great.

[shaky]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 is a goer

CMOOOONNNNN!!!!frikkin get in there!!!slide low!!!sliiiddeee!!!

[northwestsnow]

EC keeps the faith- off to work i go

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly looks like the undercut, says 'up yours' GFS

[Duane S.]

ECM says yes at D6

[mountain shadow]

Just now, SN0WM4N said:

Oh look it's great.

Come to papa. 

[feb1991blizzard]

144 blocked but its saggier and alignment looks flaky for bringing in the same cold uppers as the 0z did.

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

144 blocked but its saggier and alignment looks flaky for bringing in the same cold uppers as the 0z did.

Indeed, the ECM and UKMO are at the tipping point tonight whereby any more progression towards GFS would mean the E'ly will not happen. There is no more slack left in the progression.

[SLEETY]

Think I’ll pass on this Easterly uppers of about 0-2c  where are the Easterlies of years gone by with -10hpa or lower invading from the east with  snow showers piling in on the East. Coast

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

144 blocked but its saggier and alignment looks flaky for bringing in the same cold uppers as the 0z did.

Indeed, the ECM and UKMO are at the tipping point tonight whereby any more progression towards GFS would mean the E'ly will not happen. There is no more slack left in the progression.

[Djdazzle]

Yes that high has a worrying sag on its south eastern edge.

[feb1991blizzard]

Just now, CreweCold said:

Indeed, the ECM and UKMO are at the tipping point tonight whereby any more progression towards GFS would mean the E'ly will not happen. There is no more slack left in the progression.

Yes Unfortunately.

[karlos1983]

And the good old ecm prevents a mass brawl in the Mod thread. Amen 

[Froze were the Days]

Hemispherically speaking 144z is better than the 0z run, far more ridging to the north. In turn the HP might 'back off' to a degree and undercut possibilities.

Edited January 3, 2018 by Froze were the Days

[winterof79]

7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

certainly looks like the undercut, says 'up yours' GFS

Not dissimilar to the 168 UKMO this morning

Edited January 3, 2018 by winterof79

[Wilxy]

Not bad!

Quite cold at the surface!

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Indeed, the ECM and UKMO are at the tipping point tonight whereby any more progression towards GFS would mean the E'ly will not happen. There is no more slack left in the progression.

Better 168 for potential uppers than I thought though, SE component not as bad as it would be end February, obviously synoptically these runs are all corkers lately, they just don't look like packing a punch.

[Day 10]

The 144's

 

[Duane S.]

Not sure what the nitpicking is about. Looks on course to me. A bit here, a bit there, whatever.

+168 is fine...

 

[northwestsnow]

Marvellous EC !!.

Atlantic kicked into touch.

[karlos1983]

I think some are being a little picky here, I mean come on, when did we last see this for heavens sake 

If that doesn’t scream cold and potential, I really don’t know what does 

Edited January 3, 2018 by karlos1983

[Day 10]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Marvellous EC !!.

Atlantic kicked into touch.

I thought you were off to work?

[swfc]

Seems to have been after the great runs on the oz runs an outbreak of P-E-T!!!Its commonly known as "pre easterly tension" and affects generally males during winter.chill out folks its only weather fgs!!.Anyway after this mornings euphoria imo the outlook is looking ok for s brief flirtation with a easterly be it transient tostart with.The bigger picture is what happens after the atlantic puts the pressure on to the east.my punt will be a good ridge pushing up threw scan for a time then a push south east of the jet

I don't think the nhp is primed for a major outbreak of cold from the east but as tamara ete have mentioned many options going forward

[nick sussex]

Theres little difference between this ECM run and the morning upto T168hrs..

Its because we only get the 24 hr intervals.

Sag gate seems to have developed and its a brief thing which happens before the troughing over Scandi digs south again.