Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into 2018


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

Once you lose the more convection producing uppers it’s best if the flow turns more ese or se as this would keep dew points lower and have a better chance of importing some clearer conditions from mainland Europe .

It doesn’t matter if the circulation is more se as long as low heights remain far enough east to the south to stop any Med air getting into Central Europe.

Anyway that’s well into future and we really need to see the good foundations put down by the ECM op run earlier agreed on.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
29 minutes ago, nytram43 said:

It's a balmy 1 deg C in Moscow at the moment and no sign of getting colder for the next five days.

Moscow.........I said Russia, Plenty of very cold air east of Moscow.

image.thumb.png.8c98cf4cf1d31cf07bf6f7eabe89b8c7.pngECE101-240_qpm0.GIF

Anyway plenty going on before then:)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Not entirely sure EC mean shows the Atlantic breaking thru -

Stays cold to the end - 

Scope for some significant snowfall as systems move into the cold air imho..

mean at 192-

EDM0-192.GIF?01-0

Edited by northwestsnow
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Some decent NE/E winds bringing much colder air across the UK & Ireland. 

I have to say although this can often bring lots of snow to the east of the UK, (maybe eastern Ireland too from off the Irish Sea) many western areas (including where I am in South Wales) usually stays sunny, cold and frosty throughout. However if any rain tries to sneak in from an approaching Atlantic low (there are hints of this happening next week), once it bumps into the cold air, then the snow risk rapidly increases for us too for a time anyway. Those scenarios have brought some decent snow even on the coast. One to watch. 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
  • Weather Preferences: Deep cold
  • Location: Linslade, Beds
10 minutes ago, coldwinter said:

Remember that is 850's and by the end the OP's uppers were watered down

Extended EPS keeps low heights to our South and ridge to the north east all the way out to t-360. Ridge migrates east over time but 850’s and 2m temps remain well below all the way out. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
  • Location: Pontypridd, Wales 240m asl
6 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Some decent NE/E winds bringing much colder air across the UK & Ireland. 

I have to say although this can often bring lots of snow to the east of the UK, (maybe eastern Ireland too from off the Irish Sea) many western areas (including where I am in South Wales) usually stays sunny, cold and frosty throughout. However if any rain tries to sneak in from an approaching Atlantic low (there are hints of this happening next week), once it bumps into the cold air, then the snow risk rapidly increases for us too for a time anyway. Those scenarios have brought some decent snow even on the coast. One to watch. 

get those 850 temps in - then look out for the snow

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Draig Goch said:

Some decent NE/E winds bringing much colder air across the UK & Ireland. 

I have to say although this can often bring lots of snow to the east of the UK, (maybe eastern Ireland too from off the Irish Sea) many western areas (including where I am in South Wales) usually stays sunny, cold and frosty throughout. However if any rain tries to sneak in from an approaching Atlantic low (there are hints of this happening next week), once it bumps into the cold air, then the snow risk rapidly increases for us too for a time anyway. Those scenarios have brought some decent snow even on the coast. One to watch. 

Ooh I'll have to have a look. Tbh I lost the will to look anymore from Thursday's chart as it seems we're in for a depressingly long period of gales / severe gales with squally rain & showers tomorrow and Wednesday! 

Yeah best scenario for us, Atlantic rain hitting very cold air over us and kaboom! let it snow, let it snow lol 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

The EC mean FWIW at day 9 onwards does NOT suggest the Atlantic coming in from the NW- this is a very important clue as to the nature of the attempted breakdown, in a swift milder breakdown we would be seeing milder air into NW scotland first, this is absolutely not the case on this evenings mean.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Dafydd Tomos said:

Ooh I'll have to have a look. Tbh I lost the will to look anymore from Thursday's chart as it seems we're in for a depressingly long period of gales / severe gales with squally rain & showers tomorrow and Wednesday! 

Yeah best scenario for us, Atlantic rain hitting very cold air over us and kaboom! let it snow, let it snow lol 

Yes it looks very rough, gusts up to 70mph W then WNW winds, hopefully there won't be any severe coastal flooding as we're experiencing high spring tides this week. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Just logging on for the eve, what have I missed? :D

Just for fun but loving the end of the GEM run, look at the snow building in!

gemeu-2-198.thumb.png.ad058c7dfd7e95cc678eed99902191ef.pnggemeu-2-204.thumb.png.e477f5f78a82f7e982b2a8f784ec3c99.pnggemeu-2-210.thumb.png.428be6217151fb7fbe282a626491eaa4.png

gemeu-2-216.thumb.png.68b475a1ad8e44fa43509c96d64180be.pnggemeu-2-222.thumb.png.bad626e27a95180f130904dc0c23ee7d.pnggemeu-2-228.thumb.png.33eb56d2a5bfb714dc58fd9d612cc8a7.png

 

gemnh-0-192.thumb.png.dd7e7835df17b45981ee32597ad5db8a.pnggemnh-0-210.thumb.png.9fa2da8c70ec519099850fe0593ecca7.pnggemnh-0-228.thumb.png.51e5beabf9a5f4fd1562a992d07ae244.png

Another good set of runs this eve, a very decent cold spell could be on the cards. The upgrades continue to gather pace!

gemeu-2-192.png

Can't remove last chart for some reason

Edited by Day 10
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury

Evening All:cold: Well ,Well Well, another cold spell looking likely by the weekend , different synoptic situation from the previous few snowy periods , but very interesting non the less. No point looking at precip charts or snow charts at this stage , but high pressure over Svalbard looks like giving the uk__ A REAL FEEL OF WINTER:cold::cold::cold:

as early.png

as earlyx.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch
  • Location: ipswich <east near the a14> east weather watch

i  know  it might  happen but jan 15   could  be interesting!!

12_336_preciptype.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent

ECM was fantastic this evening cold more prolonged but gfs seems to have a short cold snap then high collapses over uk then then back in to a westerly air stream I hope this is not a trend from gfs because  it is a short cold blast ..   that's way I see it but could be totally wrong..

 

 

 

IMG_0306.PNG

Edited by abbie123
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
  • Weather Preferences: Enjoy the weather, you can't take it with you 😎
  • Location: Evesham/ Tewkesbury
3 minutes ago, tinybill said:

i  know  it might  happen but jan 15   could  be interesting!!

12_336_preciptype.png

Yes it will be interesting that far out :rofl::rofl::rofl:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.

 guys it’s exciting to watch the development how everlet’s keep our feet on the ground remember 2012 and that ecm need i say mor.  sorry to be the voice of doom first day of the year 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire

Great afternoon and evening's model watching. Of course can not put any real detail on weekend onwards other than to say it looks to be turning much colder perhaps very cold as we go through the weekend into next week. Ecm even toying with prolonging the cold although depending on high pressure orientation will determine how cold and wintry this spell likely to be.

I wonder what delights the 18z will show us.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...